RELATED CONTENT : Americas and Carribean

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    Africafé: Afro-Caribbean people and their links with the African continent

    Africafé is a program of the Policy Center for the New Center that aims to decrypt African organizations and provide analysis of current ongoing events all over the continent. Through short interviews, the program intends to approach in a pedagogical way the challenges of African organizations and to follow-up on timely topics related to Africa. In this episode, Len Ishmael Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South describes how Afro-Caribbean people relate to the African continent and how they can contribute to tackle African challenges. ...

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    4:30 pm February 2022

    La guerre commerciale sino-américaine annonce-t-elle la fin du système commercial d’après-guerre?

    Les hostilités commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis, qui se sont intensifiées sous la présidence de D. Trump et qui se sont poursuivies sous l'administration américaine actuelle, marquent un tournant dans la libéralisation de l'économie mondiale depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Le système commercial mondial est en ruine en raison de cette guerre commerciale, ainsi que du démantèlement du processus de règlement des différends de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce et des violations fréquentes des règles par ses membres. Cependant le système commercial d'après-guerre ne touche pas à sa fin ; il évolue plutôt vers un ensemble d'interactions commerciales plus compliquées, politiques et controversées. La nouvelle structure sera très probablement basée sur une O ...
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    Tax Reform in Brazil
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    João Gabriel Sacco
    January 23, 2024
    - Brazil’s latest tax reform will replace five taxes on consumption with one single VAT to promote greater efficiency and sectoral isonomy. - Forecasts produced by a detailed ICGE model point to sizeable gains in GDP exceeding 4% in the long run, even if spatially unequal. - Exceptions to the rules reduce potential benefits in efficiency terms. - Policies meant to promote regional development and close the gap deepened by the reform partially achieve their goal at the expense of ...
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    The Brazilian Economy’s Double Disease*
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    October 26, 2023
    The Brazilian economy is stuck in a so-called middle-income trap—growth that stalled long before Brazil caught up with the living standards of the highly industrialized countries. After exhibiting a stellar performance in the decades before the 1980s, the economy has since been unable to sustain growth for long periods. The predicament can be summarized using a medical analogy: Brazil has been suffering from both productivity anemia and public sector bloat. On the one hand, it hasn ...
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    The Dollar-Renminbi Tango: The Impacts of Argentina’s Potential Dollarization on its Relations with China
    Authors
    Xiaofeng Wang
    Otaviano Canuto
    October 13, 2023
    The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap l ...
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    The Cultural and Creative Industries in Africa and Latin America
    Authors
    Nezha Alaoui M’hammdi
    Larabi Jaïdi
    September 15, 2023
    This report is part of a partnership between the Policy Center for the New South and the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.   The creative economy is a constantly evolving activity, driven by the cultural industries, which make up a large and interconnected sector. Arts and culture impact the creative economy in major areas: education, innovation, collaboration, and clustering. The cultural industries are one of the most rapidly growing sectors of the global economy. This sector is ...
  • Global Leadership for Latin America and the Caribbean
    Authors
    Pepe Zhang
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 14, 2023
    This publication was originally published in Project Syndicate    WASHINGTON, DC – The world economy remains beset by challenges, from tight monetary, financial, and fiscal conditions to the effects of the war in Ukraine. These headwinds are impeding global growth – which is expected to slow to 3% this year, compared to 3.5% in 2022 – and damaging lives and livelihoods, with poverty and food insecurity on the rise, particularly in developing countries. In addressing the complex an ...
  • The Colombian Economy and Its Regional Structural Challenges
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Jaime Bonet
    Geoffrey J. D. Hewings
    August 30, 2023
    This Book was originally published on springer.com   This book examines regional structural challenges on Colombia’s path to sustainable social cohesion and regionally inclusive growth. These challenges can be divided into three main groups: (i) those that focus on competitiveness and the supply side, (ii) those that arise from critical business cycle issues on the demand side, and (iii) those concerning environmental sustainability, employment and social inclusion.  The contribu ...
  • An “Unthinkable” U.S. Public Debt Default
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    May 19, 2023
    Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders that the government could run out of cash as early as June 1, if the debt ceiling is not raised in time. In January, the Treasury reached the current legally established ceiling in nominal terms ($31.46 trillion). The funds currently available to make government payment flows tend to exhaust by the end of this month. According to the Treasury Department: “Failing to increase the debt limit would ha ...
  • Mexico, a Magnet for Electric Vehicles Investments
    Authors
    Nallely Garza
    April 20, 2023
    Nallely Garza is a 2022 alumna of Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program. Learn more about her here. On March 1, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, confirmed during Tesla’s Investors Day the construction of its next Gigafactory in Monterrey, Mexico, which will represent an investment of 5 billion dollars and the creation of around 6,000 new jobs. The question is, “Why Mexico”? What are the factors that made Mexico win this investment against other countries? Mexico’s automotive indus ...
  • The Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States
    February 23, 2023
    In this video recorded during the Atlantic Dialogues, our Columnist Mr. Helmut Sorge interviews Mr. Jorge Castañeda, Global Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Latin American Studies, New York University on the Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States, Mr. Ca...
  • The Impacts of China’s Economic Reopening on Latin America
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    February 15, 2023
    China’s rate of economic growth has slowed. Chinese GDP ended 2022 up 3%, but this was the lowest growth rate in the last 40 years, except for 2020, the first year of the pandemic. In addition to problems in its real-estate sector, China’s severe ‘COVID zero’ confinement policy is one of the causes. The post-‘COVID zero’ reopening of the Chinese economy has improved its growth outlook. In the International Monetary Fund’s annual report on China, published in early February 2023, 5. ...
  • Will Latin America Return to Mediocre Growth After Shocks?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    October 24, 2022
    The pandemic has hit Latin America hard, and its economic recovery has been slower than in other regions. In addition to the legacy of higher public indebtedness, the pandemic left scars on the labor market and the human capital formation of future workers. The COVID-19 crisis has receded in Latin America but has left a significant toll. Reported deaths from the pandemic are currently low and converging to global levels. The average excess mortality during the pandemic was among t ...
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    Le prix Nobel 2022 d'économie distingue les travaux de Ben S. BernanKe, Douglas W. Diamond, et Philip H. Dybvig sur le rôle des banques dans les crises
    Authors
    Henri-Louis Vedie
    October 14, 2022
    En attribuant le prix Nobel d'économie 2022 à Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond et Philip H. Dybvig, le jury Nobel a voulu distinguer des travaux, remontant aux années 1980, qui permettent de mieux comprendre l'implication des banques dans les crises. Travaux pionniers, également, dans l'élaboration d'une théorie bancaire, où l'analyse historique est présente avec Ben S. Bernanke qui a longuement étudié le rôle des banques dans la crise de 1929, afin de ne pas renouveler les erreu ...
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    The Freedom or Autocracy Dilemma
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    September 28, 2022
    Despite the United States' disastrous record in both Iraq and Afghanistan, President Joe Biden is right in asserting that the world faces a confrontation between autocracy and freedom. And that a choice will ultimately have to be made. This makes people cringe, particularly in Europe, which remains polarized on the subject. ...
  • The fear of political violence
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 14, 2022
    “Be there “, tweeted the President of the United States, “will be wild”. January, 6, 2021, was     supposed to be a historic day. The members of Congress would certify the electoral vote- declaring Joe Biden, the Democrat as 46th   President. Instead a band playing “God bless America” or “Hail to the Chief”, gunfire was heard and insurgents forcing their way into Congress on Capitol Hill, chanting “ Hang Mike Pence”, the Vice President, who was hiding in an underground garage, prote ...
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    Liberté ou autocratie, le dilemme
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    September 7, 2022
    Le président des États-Unis, Joe Biden, malgré les états de service catastrophiques de son pays en Irak ou en Afghanistan, n’a pas tort d’affirmer que le monde va vers un affrontement entre l’autocratie et la liberté. Et, qu’en fin de compte, il va falloir choisir. Cela fait grincer des dents, surtout en Europe qui est divisée sur le sujet. ...
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    Impactful Emerging Leaders of the Wider Atlantic
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    July 12, 2022
    The Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Alumni (ADEL) Portraits are a series of journalistic insights that delve into the stories and backgrounds of impactful young leaders of the ADEL community, now 350 alumni strong. These portraits are more than a biography as they capture the motives, success stories, career shifts, and vision behind each emerging leader’s pursuit of positive impact. From Morocco to South Africa, Germany to Canada, Brazil and the United States, these young leade ...
  • The myth of stolen elections lives on
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    April 6, 2022
    The insurrection of 6 January 2021, when supporters of then President Donald Trump stormed the US Congress in Washington DC, “is widely viewed as a seminal moment in the history of US democracy,” noted the British The Guardian (January 9, 2022). “Never before had the modern nation witnessed such an organized, violent attempt to overthrow the elected government. Never before, not even at the height of the Civil War, had the Confederated flag flown over the halls of Congress.” This w ...
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    “Delenda est Cotonou ?” The European Union and the ACP States: A Partnership without Partners
    Authors
    Dominique Lecompte
    Thierry Vircoulon
    March 14, 2022
    Although it has largely gone unnoticed in France, the agreement signed on December 3, 2020 between the European Union (EU) and the Organisation of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (ACP) is a major shift in the long-standing relations between the EU and countries in the Global South. The EU established a development assistance policy as early as the Treaty of Rome in 1957, signed the first cooperation agreement in 1963, and nowadays is often the largest donor to these countries, ...
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    The experience of the Oriental Republic of Uruguay: Market integration within MERCOSUR and with other global partners Insights for AfCFTA countries?
    Authors
    Isabelle Tsakok
    March 11, 2022
    The pros and the cons of regional market integration are well exemplified by the experience of Uruguay, a small, open economy in MERCOSUR, which is a highly protectionist trade bloc, dominated by Argentina and Brazil. With access to such large markets, Uruguay did raise its growth rate during the first decade of MERCOSUR, the 1990s. However, market integration as implemented in MERCOSUR was also problematic in that Uruguay suffered from the high protectionism of Argentina in the for ...
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    The experience of the Argentine Republic: Market integration within MERCOSUR and with other global partners Insights for AfCFTA countries?
    Authors
    Isabelle Tsakok
    March 8, 2022
    The contrast between Argentina’s rich natural resource endowment and its poor economic performance has been the focus of much socio-political and economic analysis. When it created MERCOSUR with its immediate neighbors, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay in 1991, it had access to a trading bloc with a combined GDP of US$ 419 trillion (2019), making it the 5th largest economy in the world. Joining the MERCOSUR was a break from its protectionist past. But it did not last. Argentina greatl ...
  • Africa is on the wave
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    March 2, 2022
    The White House  classified the speech as “remarks by President Obama to the People of Africa”, their representatives gathered at Mandela Hall, Addis Ababa,  Ethiopia, July 28, 2015. It was the first address by a US-President to the African Union. He was standing before the audience as “a proud American” and “the son of an African”. His father, Barack Hussein Obama, who grew up near a small village in Nyanza Province, Kenya, won a scholarship to study economics and made history- th ...
  • A sad symptom of moral and intellectual decline
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    February 24, 2022
    He is 81 years old, and obviously, his job is not joyful. Or, rather some people he is dealing with, are not just angry about him, but outright murderous. Just a few days before Christmas, a man identified as Kuachua Brillion Xiong, was stopped by police on a highway in the state of Iowa, his car loaded with an AR 15 assault rifle, ammunition, and body armor (Des Moines Register, December 30, 2021) The  25-year-old Californian resident was on his way to Washington, DC- to kill Pres ...
  • Africafé: Afro-Caribbean people and their links with the African continent
    February 24, 2022
    Africafé is a program of the Policy Center for the New Center that aims to decrypt African organizations and provide analysis of current ongoing events all over the continent. Through short interviews, the program intends to approach in a pedagogical way the challenges of African organi...
  • Argentina Avoids Falling into Arrears with the IMF
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    January 31, 2022
    On January 28, both Argentina’s government and the International Monetary Fund staff made announcements about an understanding on new support program. Meanwhile, in addition to the payment of an amortization due on January 28, another payment is also expected in the first week of February. Both payments relate to the previous package, approved in 2018 and substantially disbursed thereafter. Non-payment could sour relations at a critical moment for a new program to be approved by the ...
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    La flambée des cours du café : de la météorologie au Brésil à la crise pandémique
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    December 29, 2021
    Après une longue période de prix atones, le café a vu ses cours se raffermir au cours de l’année 2020 et du premier trimestre 2021, avant de flamber durant l’été et l’automne. Il renouait alors avec des plus hauts niveaux depuis 2011, date de la fin du dernier « super-cycle des matières premières (2002-2011). Tandis que la demande progresse structurellement, l’offre s’est repliée, pénalisée par une conjonction de facteurs climatiques, géopolitiques et, bien évidemment, sanitaires en ...
  • Regional differences in the economic impact of lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19: A case study for Colombia
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Gerson Javier Pérez Valbuena
    Diana Ricciulli
    Jaime Bonet
    Inácio Araújo
    Fernando Perobelli
    December 28, 2021
    This paper analyses the regional economic differences in the impact of lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 ordered by Colombia’s national gov­ernment. Using an input-output model, we estimate regional economic losses by extracting a group of formal and informal workers from different sectors of the economy. Results show regional differences in the impact of lockdown measures on their labour markets, local economies, and productive sectors. We also find that periphera ...
  • AD 2021: The new challenge for Latin America with the new pandemic variants
    December 22, 2021
    The new challenge for Latin America with the new pandemic variants: Regional unity in a context of political polarization At the beginning of the global health crisis, Latin America was immersed in multiple changes in ideological and political trends in different countries. In a world t...
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    Purpose-Driven Companies and the Regulation of the Fourth Sector in Ibero-America
    Authors
    Ahmed Ouhnini
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    December 17, 2021
    The research project “Purpose-driven companies and the regulation of the Fourth Sector in Ibero- America” is part of an inter-institutional effort involving the Ibero-American General Secretariat (SEGIB), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). The project has its origin in the results of a previous research developed by SEGIB (Fourth Sector companies and the SDGs in Ibero-America, 2020), through which we analyzed the i ...
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    Covid-19 and the Fiscal Space of Developing Countries
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    December 6, 2021
    Between January 2020 and June 2021, the world spent about US $16.5 trillion (18% of world GDP) to fight COVID-19, and this amount does not even include the most important losses such as deaths, mental health effects, restrictions on human freedom, and other nonmonetary suffering. Nearly 90% of this amount was spent by developed economies; the rest by emerging market and developing economies. Low-income countries spent just US $12.5 billion, or less than 0.0001% of the total. Moreove ...
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    USA/Europe: Seven Digital Challenges
    Authors
    Laurence Nardon
    Siméon Rust
    December 6, 2021
    Thanks to the positive momentum in transatlantic relations brought about by the arrival of the Biden administration, significant progress is expected on a range of key digital issues. New rules are emerging that are designed to level the playing field for economic actors and ensure the respect of civil liberties, while significant new investments in technological innovation are taking place amid considerable industrial reorganizations. This paper proposes to shed light on seven part ...
  • AD 2021: The Wake Up Call : Bridging Divides in South America (Spanish)
    December 3, 2021
    El año 2021 marca para los países de América Latina, salvo Bolivia y Cuba, el inicio de un nuevo e intenso período electoral, que se extenderá hasta 2024. Renovaciones o reelecciones de presidentes en un contexto marcado por la incertidumbre económica, la polarización política y por la ...
  • AD 2021: The Wake Up Call : Bridging Divides in South America (Spanish)
    December 3, 2021
    El año 2021 marca para los países de América Latina, salvo Bolivia y Cuba, el inicio de un nuevo e intenso período electoral, que se extenderá hasta 2024. Renovaciones o reelecciones de presidentes en un contexto marcado por la incertidumbre económica, la polarización política y por la ...
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    Delenda est Cotonou ? L’Union européenne et les États ACP : un partenariat sans partenaires
    Authors
    Dominique Lecompte
    Thierry Vircoulon
    November 26, 2021
    Bien qu’il soit assez largement passé inaperçu en France, l’accord signé le 3 décembre 2020 entre l’Union européenne (UE) et l’Organisation des États d’Afrique, des Caraïbes et du Pacifique (ACP) représente un virage important dans les relations anciennes entre l’UE et les pays du Sud. Cette dernière a développé une politique d’aide dès le Traité de Rome en 1957, a signé le premier accord de coopération en 1963 et est aujourd’hui souvent le premier bailleur de ces pays, notamment en ...
  • COVID-19 crisis monitor: assessing the effectiveness of exit strategies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Renato S. Vieira
    Inácio F. Araújo
    Silvio M. Ichihara
    Fernando S. Perobelli
    Karina S. S. Bugarin
    November 23, 2021
    As COVID-19-related health indicators improve after restrictive measures were set in place in different parts of the world, governments are expected to guide how to ease interventions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Whereas epidemiologists track the progress of the disease using daily indicators to understand the pandemic better, economic activity indicators are usually available at a lower frequency and with considerable time lags. We propose and implement a timel ...
  • Our entire democracy is at risk
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 22, 2021
    Richard Blumenthal, the US Democratic Senator from Connecticut, was shaken by the testimonies of top officials of the Department of Justice during the August 2021 Congressional hearings. The Officials recounted how the former President, Donald Trump, through phone and in private meetings, pressured them to falsify the results of the November 2020 Presidential: "say that the election was corrupt and leave the rest to the congressmen and me". (”Mother Jones”, July 30, 2021) Blumenthal ...
  • Adel Portrait: Edna Valencia Murillo, a life changed by the Atlantic Dialogues
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    November 22, 2021
    In her very energetic way and a waterfall of words, Edna Valencia Murillo explains how the Atlantic Dialogues 2019 have been a life changer. At the time of her participation in the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program in 2019, she was a Colombian news anchor for France 24 in Spanish, working from Bogota, a job she left in September 2021 to follow a more independent route. During the pandemic, she has written a book, built her platform “to connect black people in Colombia with ...
  • Could the U.S. and China Spoil Latin America’s Rebound?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    November 5, 2021
    A slowdown in China and winding down of U.S. stimulus threaten a much-needed regional rebound. First appeared at Americas Quarterly The last year has seen some good news for Latin American economies. The region’s recovery has been stronger than expected, and growth forecasts by the World Bank and IMF have improved since six months ago. Vaccination campaigns and fiscal support have sparked an economic rebound since the second half of last year, despite an apparent loss of momentum ...
  • The news is grim
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 4, 2021
    The rhythm of samba is being replaced by funeral hymns. Almost 560,000 Brazilians (608,000 as of October 31,2021) have succumbed to COVID-19, the world’s second highest death toll, and no end is in sight. There have been “Staggering losses”, as the BBC reported (on July 8), provoking Medecins sans Frontières to warn of a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Brazil. Supplies of drugs and oxygen, confirmed British publication The Lancet, “are running short”. Yet, Jair Bolsonaro, president o ...
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    Dialogues Stratégiques Volume X: Les rivalités de puissance en Afrique - L’Afrique face au terrorisme
    Authors
    Pascal Chaigneau
    Khalid Chegraoui
    Eugène Berg
    Rodolphe Monnet
    Mohammed Loulichki
    Jacques Gravereau
    Larabi Jaïdi
    Jérémy Ghez
    Olivier Tramond
    Abdelhak Bassou
    Niagalé Bagayoko
    Alain Oudot de Dainville
    Jérôme Evrard
    Coordination de l’ouvrage: Imane Lahrich
    Fatine Cherkaoui
    October 28, 2021
    Depuis l’accession au trône du Roi Mohammed VI, l’Afrique s’est transformée en priorité de la diplomatie marocaine. Sur le plan économique, l’Afrique est devenue le prolongement naturel du Maroc en termes d’investissements et d’implantations. Pascal Chaigneau s’attarde sur les relations affaiblies Europe-Afrique, l’ambitieuse relation Chine-Afrique ainsi que les relations entre la Russie, les Etats-Unis, la Turquie ou encore les pays du Golf et l’Afrique. Ce chapitre traite égalemen ...
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    The Fall of Kabul and the Taliban 2.0
    Authors
    El Mostafa Rezrazi
    August 24, 2021
    The Taliban movement took control of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, without confrontation or resistance, as soon as the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. Afghan forces were not able to face the Taliban, despite of the fact that Taliban was technically outnumbered and outgunned by Afghan government forces. The New American administration first priority is to make US military mission in Afghanistan conclude by August 31st. Biden believes that the mission US army in Afghanistan ...
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    U.S. Bubble-Led Macroeconomics
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 12, 2021
    Macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. economy has increasingly become associated with asset price fluctuations in the past few decades. Financial conditions have increasingly become an influential factor shaping the cyclical pace of the macroeconomy. There has been a mismatch between rising financial wealth and the pace of creation and incorporation of new assets. Several secular stagnation hypotheses offer explanations for the insufficient creation of new assets. Public debt—and its p ...
  • Brazil-Africa Relations
    Noamane Cherkaoui & Marcus de Freitas
    August 02, 2021
    This podcast with Mr Marcus de Freitas, a Senior Fellow at Policy Center for the New South, discusses elements revolving around Brazil’s current strategy in Africa. It engages with histor ...
  • ADEL Portrait : Daniela Varela, an Argentinian leader in international cooperation
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    July 19, 2021
    With no hesitation, Daniela Varela describes herself as a “good-listener, and a perseverant person with a positive-attitude”. Born and raised in Posadas, Misiones, a province of North-East Argentina bordering Paraguay and Brazil, she knew from a young age she wanted to work in international relations. Today, she is an International affairs advisor in the Ministry of Education of Argentina. She also holds the position of Secretary for International Affairs of the Latin American Asso ...
  • AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: HOW DOES THE WORLD CHANGE?
    Authors
    Len Ishmael
    July 16, 2021
    The BDA Currents: Where Diplomacy Meets Business, is the Brussels Diplomatic Academy’s annual report covering the wider geopolitical and other factors influencing and affecting the world of diplomacy, international relations and global business. The journal focuses on issues of topical interest around the centers of global power, influence and importance, including the continents of Europe and Africa, the Middle East, China, India & Asia, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independe ...
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    The EU’s Carbon Border Tax is Likely to do More Harm than Good
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    June 30, 2021
    The EU's proposed carbon border tax is well intentioned. It is motivated by climate concerns, not by protectionism. However, the tax is based on the false premise of carbon leakage, and its implementation is rife with practical difficulties. Moreover, the tax, as proposed, departs from the Paris agreement principle of differentiated responsibilities, and will be challenged by developing countries. The United States is not ready to adopt carbon taxes, either. The WTO, already in a fr ...
  • Climate change in Brazil: dealing with uncertainty in agricultural productivity models and the implications for economy-wide impacts
    Authors
    Bruno Souza
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    June 18, 2021
    This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country’s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses ...
  • Global Recovery May Not Be Enough for Latin America: Three risks threaten another economic and social lost decade for the region
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Pepe Zhang
    Otaviano Canuto
    June 7, 2021
    First appeared at AMERICAS QUARTERLY A growing global imbalance threatens to further weaken already vulnerable emerging markets. The massive vaccine disparities between advanced and developing economies may exacerbate what the IMF has dubbed “divergent recoveries”—with dire consequences for Latin America. Despite being home to only 8% of the world’s population, the region has already suffered nearly 30% of all global COVID-19 deaths. The pandemic has also hit GDP and employment ha ...
  • Biden’s Surprises
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Uri Dadush
    May 17, 2021
    Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. elections was widely anticipated, and much of what has happened since he took office on January 21 has conformed to his election promise. The progress he helped steer in vaccinations and repairing the pandemic’s economic damage is especially impressive. However, the first 100 days of his term have also seen major unexpected developments. Three of these surprises have both major implications for the U.S. economic outlook, and global repercussions. The ...
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    INSIGHTS INTO THE EU-OACPS NEGOTIATIONS 2018-2021 : What are the implications for the future partnership?
    Authors
    Len Ishmael
    April 20, 2021
    The briefing document by Ambassador Dr. Len Ishmael created in collaboration with MDPD KAS reviews the process of the EU-OACPS negotiations, reviews the process of the EU-OACPS negotiations, with a view to providing insights on the following issues: - The challenges and bottlenecks in the process and those issues that have created tension. - The future roles of the African Union (AU) and #OACPS Secretariats in the EU-OACPS relationship, and in Africa’s relationship with the #EU. ...
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    Brazil Agriculture—Response and resilience of food security under dual shocks in 2020: Oil price collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic
    Authors
    Isabelle Tsakok
    Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    March 3, 2021
    Brazil, an oil-exporting nation, was still struggling to recover from the depression which started around 2014/15 when it was hit by a quick succession of shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price collapse. The global pandemic triggered major economic dislocations and contractions in foreign and domestic markets, which further exacerbated the fall in demand for oil, sending world prices tumbling further. Poverty was already widespread in Brazil pre-pandemic. And despite recen ...
  • The Vaccine, the Economy, and Governance
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 30, 2020
    According to this month’s OECD economic outlook, global GDP --- which took a huge hit from the pandemic and is still 3% below its level of a year ago – will not recover its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021. In a downside scenario, the return could take almost a year longer. The OECD predictions, which imply high and protracted unemployment, are in line with the view of many other official and private organizations. The arrival of effective vaccines such as Pfizer-BioNTech wa ...
  • Swinging the Pendulum: American Foreign Policy at the Apex of Political Polarization
    Authors
    Salma Daoudi
    December 25, 2020
    The maxim that in adversity we find unity has never truly materialized following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite fighting a common enemy, individual societies have turned inwards, moved by a self-preservation instinct that prioritizes individual over collective well-being. Outbursts and demonstrations of solidarity have punctuated national and international responses to COVID-19, but the virus has also often exacerbated structural inequalities, reopening ol ...
  • Happy New Year?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 23, 2020
    This article was originally published on Bruegel  A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects. At the end of a tragic year marked by pandemic and increased poverty, the miraculously rapid arrival of vaccines stirs great hope. The COVID-19 recession ...
  • They Did Not Want Compromise and Consensus. They Wanted War
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    December 22, 2020
    “When I got home late that night, the house was dark and Michelle was already asleep. After taking a shower and going through a stack of mail, I slipped under the covers and began drifting off. In that luminal space between wakefulness and sleep, I imagined myself stepping toward a portal of some sort, a bright and cold and airless place, uninhabited and severed from the world. And behind me, out of the darkness, I heard a voice, sharp and clear, as if someone were right next to me, ...
  • Why a Weaker Dollar Might Be Good for Emerging Markets?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 22, 2020
    After reaching a peak against other currencies in March this year, the dollar fell by almost 15% until the beginning of December. According to Bloomberg, asset portfolio managers have been assuming "short" positions against the dollar, that is, betting on its fall ahead. The dollar is expected to devalue against the euro, the yen, and the Chinese RMB in 2021. The peak last March, during the coronavirus financial shock, reflected the search for a safe haven in short-term US bonds or ...
  • The internal geography of services value-added in exports: A Latin American perspective
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Inácio F. Araújo
    December 18, 2020
    We estimate the contents of services value-added incorporated in goods exports in different countries in Latin America, exploring the local dimension of the results. We use inter-regional input–output analysis to trace and map domestic value-added embedded in those countries' exports. We add to the discussion of global value chains the internal, within-country geography of trade in value-added, since the set of locational preferences that help understanding the spatial patterns of n ...
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    Brazil at a Post-Pandemic Macroeconomic Crossroads
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Márcio Issao Nakane
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 17, 2020
    Brazil is one of the countries hardest hit by COVID-19. Apart from the dramatic health implications, COVID-19 will also scar the Brazilian economy, including through a jump in its already high public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020. Moving forward—or not—with structural reforms aimed at lifting private investment will define whether a sustainableor unsustainable—growth-cum-debt trajectory will prevail in the next decade. The extent to which Brazil regains its attractiveness for for ...
  • The Peaceful Transfer of Power: An Instantaneous Hereditary Principle Steeped in Necessity and Tradition
    Authors
    Yahya Drissi-Daoudi
    December 16, 2020
    During the last few weeks, the United States has seen unfold one of its most contentious elections to date, which also registered a record turnout. While the results trickled in after November 3, each camp reassured its base regarding its confidence in a win, President Trump going as far as calling the election in his favor on Twitter. The following weekend, news outlets began calling the Presidency in favor of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, who served under President Obama ...
  • Middle-Income Countries Should not be Rushed to Graduate
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 14, 2020
    This article has originally been published on OECD Development matter platform Many donor countries seem eager to see middle-income countries (MICs) “master out” and graduate to a non-client status in multilateral development institutions before fully achieving their development potential. We argue that such institutions can still significantly contribute to the sustainable development of MICs, while also seizing many benefits from this relationship (Middle income countries and mul ...
  • The Pandemic Will Reshape Globalization
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 7, 2020
    The pandemic is accelerating history, in the sense that it is leading to the speeding up of some recent trends. In the case of globalization, the pandemic will not reverse it, but it will reshape it. Here we take a bird’s eye view of global trade during the pandemic, relate it to previous trends, and guess how global value chain managers and government trade policymakers are likely to react. A Bird’s Eye View of Global Trade during the Pandemic World trade took a deep dive during ...
  • Les Mardis du PCNS 01/12/2020: الثابت والمتحول في السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية
    December 1, 2020
    جرت الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية 2020 في ظل ظروف استثنائية عرفت متابعة شاملة لمجرياتها في مختلف بلدان العالم لما لها من وقع على مستقبل التحالفات والسياسات الخارجية للدول. كيف يمكن تحليل السياق الذي جرت فيه الانتخابات من أجل فهم التحديات الرئيسية للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على المستويين...
  • Regards juridiques sur les élections présidentielles américaines
    Authors
    Abdessalam Jaldi
    November 30, 2020
    Le suspens électoral américain s’est achevé le samedi 7 septembre par la victoire du candidat démocrate Joe Biden comme 46ème président des Etats-Unis, en franchissant la barre fatidique des 270 grands électeurs lui garantissant la victoire le 14 décembre prochain au sein du Collège électoral. Néanmoins, le président sortant Donald Trump, refusant de reconnaître le verdict des urnes, semble déterminé à poursuivre son bras de fer judiciaire engagé devant les tribunaux pour contester ...
  • The challenge is, what comes next?
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 27, 2020
    As President elect Biden prepares for the enormous responsibility of becoming President of the United States (US), there is one question I want to ask him, writes Stephen Young, Washington Representative and Senior Analyst of the ”Union of Concerned Scientists” on November 7th, 2020: “Sir ,are you a fan of nuclear arms race? Because you are being handed one, a burgeoning nuclear and technology arms race waged by Russia, China and the United States.” Two weeks after Joe Biden will be ...
  • What Could President-Elect Joe Biden’s African Strategy Be?
    Authors
    Souha Majidi
    November 26, 2020
    The Trump Administration “America First” policy changed U.S. foreign policy towards the African continent. Trump opposed trade agreements with several countries, considering them to be unfavorable to the U.S., given the nature of the African market. He shifted the U.S. concern in Africa from fighting against violent extremism and terrorism to a direct competition with other great powers—China and Russia—which had already extensively implemented African strategies. He endeavored to r ...
  • A Bad Year? Climate Variability and the Wine Industry in Chile
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Patricio Aroca
    Pilar Jano
    Ademir Rocha
    Bruno Pimenta
    November 23, 2020
    Short-term climate conditions may affect crop yields and vintage quality and, as a consequence, wine prices and vineyards’ earnings. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile, which incorporates very detailed information about the value chain of the wine sector in the country. Using information for the 2015-2016 harvest, we calibrate climate variability shocks associated with a “bad year” for the wine industry in Chile, when premature rains occurre ...
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    Biden et la politique étrangère américaine de sécurité : redonner confiance aux alliés
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    November 19, 2020
    Le mandat du président Trump qui, sauf miracle, s’achève en janvier 2021, avait soumis à rude épreuve les alliances des Etats-Unis d’Amérique avec plusieurs pays et entités européens et asiatiques. Plusieurs de ces alliés stratégiques des Etats-Unis avaient, alors, perdu confiance en l’esprit de solidarité qui a toujours empreint l’action étasunienne à leur égard, et amorcé des réflexions sur la construction de leurs propres systèmes de défense. L’arrivée à la Maison Blanche d’un no ...
  • Biden : la mécanique du succès
    Authors
    Dominique Bocquet
    November 2, 2020
    La perspective d’une victoire de Joe Biden s’est heurtée, jusqu’au bout, au scepticisme des observateurs, en raison du précédent de 2016 : ils n’avaient, alors, pas vu venir la défaite d’Hillary Clinton et le triomphe de Trump, en retard dans les sondages. Mais, l’élection de 2020 n’est pas celle de 2016. D’abord, l’avance de Biden est bien supérieure à celle dont disposait Hillary Clinton. A la veille du scrutin, celle-ci avait deux ou trois points d’avance dans les sondages par ...
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    The Internal Geography of Services Value-Added in Exports: A Latin American Perspective
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Inácio F. Araújo
    October 27, 2020
    We estimate the contents of services value-added incorporated in goods exports in different countries in Latin America, exploring the local dimension of the results. We use inter-regional input-output analysis to trace and map domestic value-added embedded in those countries’ exports. We add to the discussion of global value chains the internal, withincountry geography of trade in value-added, since the set of locational preferences that help understanding the spatial patterns of na ...
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    After Trump
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    October 16, 2020
    Whether President Trump is reelected or not, the United States will, sooner or later, revert to a traditonalist foreign policy of openness and alliances. If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump on November 3, as he is expected to do, the United States will return to a traditionalist brand of foreign policy: one of openness, support for multilateralism, and constructive engagement with allies. But even if Biden doesn’t winwhich is possible—and four more years of Trump’s America First polici ...
  • QAnon and Creeping Conspiracy Theories
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    October 8, 2020
    The so-called QAnon conspiracy theory has inspired groups with millions of members on Facebook and is considered by some observers to be “a new American religion”. For the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, however, the conspiracy theorists could pose a domestic terrorist threat. Q followers believe the baseless messages of their faceless leader(s) that a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is running a global child-trafficking ring and plotting against Donald Trump, who is bat ...
  • The American People, Not Vladimir Putin Should Decide Who is President of the United States
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 28, 2020
    Bank robbers are now and then caught because banks, insurance companies, or robbed personalities promise rewards for the arrest of criminals. In the past, Hollywood took the lead in dreaming up such scenarios. But in early August, the U.S. State Department offered a $10 million reward for information leading “to the identification or location of any person, who works with or for a foreign government for the purpose of interfering with U.S. elections through certain illegal cyber act ...
  • Not a Good Loser
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 16, 2020
    If America votes Donald Trump out of office in November, will he go? Just a few days ago (Sept. 13), one of Trump’s closest political friends, Roger Stone, publicly suggested to the President that if the votes should go against him, he should alert the military, ready to defend his power, and arrest opponents including the Clintons or Microsoft boss Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook fame. Stone was sentenced in February 2020 to 40 months in jail for witness tampering, making ...
  • Don’t Expect Miracles from the Multilaterals
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 11, 2020
    Latin American and Caribbean economies need help, but organizations like the IDB are also stretched thin. First appeared at Americas Quarterly With Latin America and the Caribbean potentially facing years of difficulties due to the pandemic and related economic crises, attention has shifted to what multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might do to help. There’s no doubt they can play a crucial role in preventing another lost decade in the region. But ...
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    Brazil, South Korea: Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 3, 2020
    The “middle income trap” may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status. Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulati ...
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    Brazil’s Foreign Policy: Bolsonaro’s First Eighteen Months
    Authors
    Pedro da Motta Veiga
    Sandra Polónia Rios
    August 24, 2020
    A previous CINDES’ policy brief, issued in May 2019, addressed the first months of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign policy. According to its conclusions, there were “strong indications that a rupture in Brazil’s foreign policy is deliberately being promoted”, at the economic as well as the political level. Taking stock of the evolution of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy in the eighteen months of his tenure as President, this second brief discusses to what extent the intended ...
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    Contribution à un ordre monétaire international tripolaire
    Authors
    Mohammed Germouni
    August 12, 2020
    En dépit d’une diminution du contrôle des changes, le cours d’une devise continue de se jouer, jusqu’ici encore, en fonction de l’importance du poids considérable des relations financières qu’elle permet et facilite. Autant la monnaie américaine demeurait la devise-clé, en raison de la puissance tant économique que sécuritaire qu’elle reflète, autant l’Euro et le Yen n’en sont pas moins bien présents, également, sur les marchés que dans les réserves monétaires des divers pays. Certe ...
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    Industrie automobile nationale face à la Covid-19 : faut-il se préoccuper de l’impact sur le compte courant ?
    Authors
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    August 7, 2020
    L’industrie automobile mondiale est confrontée à une année 2020 des plus difficiles. La pandémie est apparue pour la première fois dans une région chinoise réputée pour son secteur automobile développé. Dans un premier temps, ce sont les constructeurs sudasiatiques qui ont subi les premières ondes de l’arrêt de l’activité en Chine avant que le foyer pandémique se déplace en Europe et aux Etats-Unis et que la perturbation des chaînes de valeurs prenne une dimension cette fois-ci mond ...
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    Un regard prudent sur les perspectives économiques au-delà catastrophe provoquée par la Covid-19
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    August 6, 2020
    La COVID-19 a asséné un puissant coup de massue à l’économie mondiale, en combinant une terrible pandémie à un effondrement de la production dû au confinement de la moitié de la population active mondiale. L’incertitude générée par le choc médical et économique paralyse les consommateurs et les investisseurs, et la dispersion des prévisions économiques à court terme est plus grande qu’elle ne l’a jamais été dans l’histoire moderne, environ six fois plus que lors de la grande crise f ...
  • Regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Colombia: An input–output approach
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Jaime Bonet-Morón
    Diana Ricciulli-Marín
    Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena
    Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte
    Inácio F. Araújo
    Fernando S. Perobelli
    July 29, 2020
    The aim of this paper is to assess the regional economic impact of the lockdown measures ordered by the national government to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Using an input–output model, we estimate the economic loss of extracting groups of formal and informal workers from different economic sectors. Results show monthly economic losses that represent between 0.5% and 6.1% of national GDP, depending on the scenario considered. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administr ...
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    العولمة و الجائحة أوراق من زمن الحجر الصحي
    Authors
    Fathallah Oualalou
    July 15, 2020
    في فبراير 2020 نشر كاتب هذه الأوراق مؤلفه حول موضوع «نحن و العولمة » حيث تساءل عن جواب الجنوب اتجاه التحولات الكبرى التي تعرفها هذه الأخيرة 1. تعبر الكلمات المفاتيح لهذه الأوراق )الهشاشة، التشظي، اللايقين، غير المتوقع، الهلع، السمعة، الصحة، البيئة، التكافؤ، الأقلمة، استعادة التموقع، الإختبار، الفرص(، عن المشاعر الشائعة عالميا خال شهور الحجر الصحي الذي فرضته جائحة كفيد 19 و ما نتج عنها من انكماش كبير للإقتصاد. عرف العالم مند بداية القرن ثاث هزات هائلة : الأولى جيوسياسية ) 11 شتنبر 20 ...
  • The South Atlantic, a Space under Construction
    Authors
    Rachid El Houdaigui
    July 3, 2020
    Our Senior Fellow and professor at the University Abdelmalek Essaadi (Tangier) Rachid El Houdaigui, contributed with a chapter on « The South Atlantic, a Space under Construction » in Idn Cadernos (nstituto daDefesaNacional) n°38, the Academic journal of the Atlantic Centre for Defence Capacity Building. This paper was presented – along other experts from countries bordering the Atlantic basin and beyond- in the context of Rachid El Houdaigui’s participation in the first seminar org ...
  • All Options Are on the Table
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    June 26, 2020
    At the beginning of June, officers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, usually active on America’s periphery, were deployed to Washington D.C., where President Donald Trump had sighted an internal threat posed by “anarchists, agitators, looters, or lowlifes”. In reality, American citizens were protesting, mostly peacefully, against police brutality, and the killings of African-Americans by cops. Nevertheless, the urban revolt seemed grave enough for the Trump Administration to ...
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    Capitaliser sur les « bonnes réputations »
    Authors
    Fathallah Oualalou
    June 24, 2020
    La réputation, concept majeur s’il en est, est un indicateur de l’estime accordée à une personne physique mais aussi à une entreprise ou encore à une entité étatique. Constituée d’une somme de perceptions, elle est la résultante globale de l’ensemble d’images, d’appréciations des actions et comportements de celles-ci. Ainsi, la bonne réputation d’un gouvernement est déterminée et mesurée par son aptitude à faire face aux épreuves que traverse le pays, à affronter les bouleversements ...
  • Is the United States Reopening Safely?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    June 12, 2020
    The United States has suffered more COVID-19 casualties than any other country and continues to report large numbers of new cases and deaths, and – as evident recently in stock markets – investors remain extremely sensitive to the epidemic’s shifting trends. As every state reopens, including most recently the New York epicenter, the fates of the American economy and of the global economy depend on whether the United States has put the worst of the epidemic behind it, or whether it w ...
  • Cuba in the Coronavirus Crisis
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    June 11, 2020
    When the cruise ship the MS Braemar in March had coronavirus cases confirmed on board, it struggled to find somewhere to dock. The Americans turned it away, as did the Bahamas. But another nation, just 200 miles off the U.S. coast, accepted the desperate Braemar. Cuba allowed it to berth in Puerto Mariel, 40 kilometers west of the capital, Havana. Within a day, in cooperation with the British government, Cuban medical teams accompanied more than 680 passengers to Havana airport and ...
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    L’aide au développement américaine dans le domaine de la santé en Afrique : Analyse à la lumière de la Déclaration de Paris
    Authors
    Souha Majidi
    June 5, 2020
    Face à l’ampleur des retombées économiques et sociales des crises sanitaires, comme la Covid19, l’aide publique au développement peut jouer un rôle essentiel dans l’atténuation de l’impact des épidémies sur les économies les plus fragiles et vulnérables. L'aide publique au développement (APD) vise non seulement à combler le manque de capital nécessaire à amorcer une dynamique forte de développement, mais aussi à amorcer la capacité des Etats à répondre aux risques sanitaires et sécu ...
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    Contribution des Armées à la lutte contre le Covid-19
    Authors
    Taoufik Marrakchi
    June 2, 2020
    Héros méconnus de la lutte contre le Covid-19, les professionnels du secteur de la santé publique ont assuré leurs charges avec des ressources qui se sont avérées insuffisantes : le déficit de personnels spécialisés, amplifié par des problèmes de logistique, ont fortement porté préjudice à l’efficacité de leurs actions. Face à cette situation contraignante, nombreux sont les Etats qui ont appelé leurs armées en renfort, eu égard à leur expertise en matière de gestion des risques, me ...
  • New Global Hotspot
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 29, 2020
    Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro is almost a mirror image of U.S. president Donald Trump. They have  considered COVID-19 a “hoax, ”, ( Trump), or a “fantasy” (Bolsonaro). They both believe a potentially toxic drug, hydroxychloroquine, which was developed to fight malaria, to be the miracle cure for the virus. They have refused to wear facemasks. They have both pushed back against lockdown rules. Bolsonaro even issued a presidential decree that exempted churches and lottery houses f ...
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    Rivalité sino-américaine : La Covid-19, frein ou amplificateur selon les comportements des acteurs
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    May 27, 2020
    Les tensions dans les relations entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine sont un sujet de préoccupation pour le monde. En dépit des quelques ouvertures éphémères, qui donnent parfois espoir à la détente, la tendance de ces derniers temps est plutôt vers l’escalade. Il ne se passe pas un mois, voire une semaine sans qu’actions, déclarations ou positions de l’un des deux pays contre l’autre ne fasse la Une de l’actualité. Des incidents les plus dangereux en Mer de Chine méridionale, aux mesur ...
  • The Gravity of the Threat
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 22, 2020
    On February 3, 2003, Colin Powell, U.S. President George Bush’s Secretary of State, informed the United Nations Security Council about secret information collected by the U.S. about Iraq’s weapons of mass destructions. “Every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions,” he said. There was “no doubt in my mind” that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapons program, and the invasion of Iraq was urgent and justified, because “the gravity of this ...
  • Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    May 21, 2020
    Our senior fellow, Otaviano Canuto, has contributed to Science Direct academic Journal, with a research paper entitled « Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital? », Volume 88, May 2020, 104760. This paper assesses the effect of oil revenues on health and education indicators (measures for human capital) in the Brazilian municipalities using exogenous oil price variations. The Oil Law of 1997, apart from to hugely increase the amoun ...
  • The Virus Passed the Electrified Barbed Wire
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 11, 2020
    They live in the shadow of death: the United States has 2,650 death-row inmates, 740 in California’s San Quentin State Prison alone. Today, these prisoners fear another executioner, the invisible COVID-19. The condemned on death row live in single cells, some having spent many decades in solitary confinement. The suicide rate is high, and many die of natural causes before their rendezvous with the special execution team. These prisoners hardly ever receive visitors, and for them th ...
  • Bring Light Inside the Body
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 4, 2020
    For the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Thursday April 23, 2020, would turn out to be one of those wasted days. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are declining, the number of unemployed is rising into historic dimensions. White House reporters were needling him about missing ventilators, the lack of protective gear for medical personnel, and almost 60,000 COVID-19 deaths, more than the number of Americans who died on the battlefields of Vietnam. Instinctively, Donald ...
  • Between the Virus and the Economy: the Situation of Argentina in Times of Covid-19
    Authors
    Julián Colombo
    Antonella Pelizzari
    May 4, 2020
    Last December, Covid-19 news emerged from China and, as the epicenter of the pandemic moved to Europe in February, and then to the United States in March, the news hotspots moved there too. However, there has been only a few global news streams about how South American countries, and Argentina in particular, are fighting against the pandemic. As a country with a new president, who has started this year with a preexistent economic crisis, it is worth giving a look at the current loca ...
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    Le Désengagement Financier Américain de L’oms de Quoi est-Il Révélateur ?
    Authors
    Larabi Jaïdi
    April 23, 2020
    Donald Trump a mis à exécution sa menace annoncée quelques jours avant sa prise de décision. Les Etats-Unis vont suspendre leur contribution financière à l’Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS), alors que la pandémie de Covid-19 tue toujours des milliers de personnes quotidiennement. Dans les arguments égrenés par le président pour justifier sa position, est revenue en force la cible de l’Organisation internationale, sa mauvaise gestion de la crise Corona, son alignement sur les p ...
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    The Global Challenges of Illicit Financial Flows
    Authors
    Seleman Kitenge
    March 30, 2020
    Illicit financial flows (IFFs) have become a serious threat to the attainment of global development goals. On February 28th, 2020, the President of the United Nations General Assembly, Tijjani Muhammad-Bande, and the President of ECOSOC, Mona Juul, have announced a high-level panel on international financial accountability, transparency, and integrity (FACTI) as a means to address this challenge, which inhibits financing for the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper provides an ...
  • ADEL Portrait : Julian Colombo, political advisor in Argentina
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    March 17, 2020
    Aged 24 in 2011, he was already Chief of staff for Daniel Scioli, the Governor of Buenos Aires - the most populated province of Argentina, counting for 40 % of the total population with 16 million inhabitants. His main challenge then was “to be young in a relevant position”. He had to fight to get recognized and accepted by his elder peers, and succeeded with “the support of the Governor, through hard work and careful analysis”, he recalls. He also remembers fondly one of his main ...
  • How Coronavirus Poses New Risks to Latin America's Sputtering Economies
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    February 24, 2020
    The outbreak in China has already affected economic sectors in Latin America. Is there more to come? China’s economy has come to a sudden stop. Large parts of the country remain in shutdown mode after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday, with national passenger traffic declining by 85% on the Wednesday after the break compared to 2019.   Outside of China, the impact of the slowdown has already been felt, with companies like Apple and Land Rover warning of lower production, as pa ...
  • World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future
    Authors
    Mehmet Sait Akman
    Uri Dadush
    Shiro Armstrong
    Anabel Gonzalez
    Fukunari Kimura
    Junji Nakagawa
    Peter Rashish
    Akihiko Tamura
    Carlos A. Primo Braga
    February 9, 2020
    In the context of his role as chair of the T20 task force « Trade, Investment and Globalization », our senior fellow, Uri Dadush has led the T20 brief under the theme "World Trading System Under Stress: Scenarios for the Future", which has been published in Global Policy. The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep‐seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on r ...
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    Brazil is in dire need of more and better infrastructure investments
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    January 31, 2020
    A recent Ipsos survey found the Brazilian population to be the most dissatisfied with infrastructure services (transportation, energy, water and telecommunications) among the 28 countries covered by the work. Not surprising if we observe the lack of infrastructure investments in Brazil since the 1980s. According to estimates by the economist Cláudio Frischtak, from Inter. B, while Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) doubled in real terms between 1990 and 2016, the stock of infrast ...
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    La “révolution énergétique” américaine : les Etats-Unis vont devenir un exportateur net de pétrole en 2020
    Authors
    Francis Perrin
    January 23, 2020
    Selon les projections officielles de l’U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), les Etats-Unis deviendraient en 2020 un pays exportateur net de pétrole et de produits raffinés, ce qui serait une première depuis les années 1950. Les exportations pétrolières nettes du pays seraient de 570 000 barils par jour, en 2020, alors qu’en 2018 il était importateur net à hauteur de 2,34 millions de b/j. En 2005, les importations pétrolières nettes représentaient 60% de la consommation pétr ...
  • Iran-USA: "Hybrid" Wars Confront « Might Makes Right »
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    January 17, 2020
    The drone strike that claimed the life of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani unmasks the limits of so-called "hybrid" – or "asymmetric" – strategies. These low-intensity military operations, conducted through unofficial paramilitary forces, are supposed to allow a weaker state to gain geopolitical advantages without risking an open war with a stronger one. The idea is to gradually accumulate small tactical victories by capitalizing on more powerful states’ lack of appetite for distant ...
  • Global Economic Outlook: is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty ?
    Authors
    Hamza Saoudi
    Oumayma Bourhriba
    December 19, 2019
    Emerging market and developing economies: Engine of the global economic growth despite some vulnerabilities1 After a long spell of slow growth post-crisis, the global economy’s recovery was mainly supported by the improvement of emerging markets and developing economies growth. However, this recovery is subject to wide-ranging uncertainties and is now in some danger. According to the IMF, the global economic growth is expected to fall to 3 % in 2019, the lowest level since 2008. Th ...
  • ( FR ) Plenary IX: Global Governance in the Post-American Order
    December 14, 2019
    Moderator Uduak Amimo, Uduak Amimo Coaching and Consulting Speakers Maged Abdelaziz, Permanent Observer of the League of Arab States to the United Nations Bineta Diop, Special Envoy on Women, Peace, and Security, African Union Commission Mohamed Znagui Sid' Ahmed Ely, Brigadier General,...
  • ( FR ) Plenary VIII: Will the Rules-Based Trading System Survive?
    December 14, 2019
    Moderator John Yearwood, President and CEO, Yearwood Media Group Speakers Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South Matthias Fekl, Former Minister for Foreign Trade, France Renato Flôres, Director, International Intelligence Unit, Fundação Getulio Vargas ...
  • Plenary IX: Global Governance in the Post-American Order
    December 14, 2019
    Moderator Uduak Amimo, Uduak Amimo Coaching and Consulting Speakers Maged Abdelaziz, Permanent Observer of the League of Arab States to the United Nations Bineta Diop, Special Envoy on Women, Peace, and Security, African Union Commission Mohamed Znagui Sid' Ahmed Ely, Brigadier General,...
  • ( EN ) Plenary IX: Global Governance in the Post-American Order
    December 14, 2019
    Moderator Uduak Amimo, Uduak Amimo Coaching and Consulting Speakers Maged Abdelaziz, Permanent Observer of the League of Arab States to the United Nations Bineta Diop, Special Envoy on Women, Peace, and Security, African Union Commission Mohamed Znagui Sid' Ahmed Ely, Brigadier General,...
  • The IMF, Argentina and Ecuador: Have Lessons Been Learned?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 2, 2019
    Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) went through a period of self-examination. The old joke that its acronym stood for “It’s Mostly Fiscal” bothered some of its leaders, who believed the organization needed to focus less on austerity and more thoroughly consider issues such as inequality, poverty reduction and gender equality when making loans and other key decisions. There was talk of a “new IMF” that had learned from its old mist ...
  • The Unstable Global Order: About a Missing Voice from the South
    Authors
    Osama El Mourabit
    November 29, 2019
    During the past few years, the different global ongoing events have left us baffled and astonished. Given the decreasing ability to understand and assimilate the amount of changes, mutations, and crises, one would wonder: what happened to the global order? How has -in this short period of time- the power of its values and institutions that much decreased? What are the causes for these protectionist and massive populist waves? Why are we witnessing an increasing settlement of conflic ...
  • Colombia: Heading Back Towards Jungles and Mountains
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 26, 2019
    Beyond the verbal anarchy celebrated by President Donald Trump, or the annihilation of abandoned Kurdish allies of the United States, the never ending destruction of Yemen, the threatening warfare against Iran, a massacre by Iraqi forces to intimidate protesters against a failing government, more gas and ammunition fired in Hong Kong to oppress untamable activist fearing their loss of freedom, Britain crashing out of the European Union, abandoning common sense and democratic dignity ...
  • EMBRAER and the trajectory of Brazil’s aeronautics industry ecosystem
    Authors
    Pedro da Motta Veiga
    November 14, 2019
    Created as a State-owned company in the late 1960s, Embraer was privatized in the mid- 1990s and became the main Brazilian company producing and exporting high-technology goods. The company diversified its operations within the aircraft business and added to its portfolio goods and services associated to its core activities. ...
  • The US-China Trade War Is Accelerating China’s Rebalancing
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    November 8, 2019
    The Trump government has been imposing restrictions on access to technologies by Chinese telecommunications firms. Why and what are the consequences? The Federal Communications Commission is about to ban carriers from using government funds to buy equipment from Huawei and ZTE. Other government agencies are expected to take similar measures. This is just the latest episode of a gradual squeeze that the Trump government has been giving over China's telecommunications giant Huawei, ...
  • Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 30, 2019
    Despite some short-term benefits, trade deviation to the region shouldn’t be expected to last. Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America? An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has. But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on gl ...
  • Fire is legend
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 11, 2019
    The power of fire is a legend, a myth. Reality. The Combustion Triangle-heat, fuel, oxidizing agent. Its importance to   civilization debated by philosophers in ancient Athens, tempting Prometheus to steal fire from the Gods to protect the otherwise helpless humans. Fire is part of life, as is the sun, fire consumed cities in war and San Francisco after an earthquake or just burned to glorify the spirits, provoking fear, the devil, ghosts, and the desperate in poverty, burn baby, bu ...
  • Youth South-South Cooperation Across Boundaries to Build a Youthful Peace
    Authors
    Leonardo Parraga
    September 5, 2019
    Leonardo Parraga is an alumnus of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program 2016.  The rise of globalization has given space to cooperation across borders in unprecedented ways. The interconnectedness between different actors allows for the creation of synergies and catalyzing progress in different areas, a feature that was previously unthinkable. When it comes to cooperation amongst young people, the increasing wave of meeting spaces facilitating the encounters between youth ...
  • Fed Monetary Policy, Inverted Yield Curve and Outlook for US and Global Economy
    Authors
    Satyandra Nayak
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 27, 2019
    Since the Fed’s July meeting, when the Fed Funds Rate had a 0.25% cut, fears about the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy have escalated. The US yield curve inversion received much attention as a harbinger of a slowdown in the global and US economic outlooks. We approach here whether lights on next monetary policy events can be obtained from reading the minutes of the Fed’s meeting – and of the July meeting of the ECB governing council – released this week. The ...
  • Argentina’s Half-Baked Adjustment Has Not Worked
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 19, 2019
    Argentina’s peso tumbled and stocks plunged after last Sunday’s primary elections. The perception of a likely victory of President Macri’s opponents – Alberto Fernandez, and running mate, Christina Fernandez de Kirchner - has sparked a new shift in investor preferences away from peso assets, pressures on the exchange rate, and hikes on sovereign spreads. Unless fears of a return to policies prevailing before Macri are assuaged, the market rout tends to deepen as a negative feedback ...
  • Trump's Backfiring Trade Policy
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Laurence Kotlikoff
    August 15, 2019
    Thirty months into President Trump's radical trade policy, it is time to take stock. American firms tend to give the President the benefit of the doubt - that the aim is not protection (which most don't want) but opening up markets overseas, striking better trade deals, and reducing the nation's big trade deficit. So far, however, none of this has happened. Instead, there is virulent uncertainty, barriers against American firms are going up, Europe, Japan and China have struck impor ...
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    Solar smart grid as a path to economic inclusion and adaptation to climate change in the Brazilian Semiarid Northeast
    Authors
    Paulo Nobre
    Enio Bueno Pereira
    Francinete Francis Lacerda
    Marcel Bursztyn
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Debora Ley
    August 12, 2019
    Purpose This study aims to exploit the abundance of solar energy resources for socioeconomic development in the semi -arid Northeastern Brazil as a potent adaptation tool to global climate change. It points out a set of conjuncture factors that allow us to foresee a new paradigm of sustainable development for the region by transforming the sun’s radiant energy into electricity through distributed photovoltaic generation. The new paradigm, as presented in this essay, has the transfo ...
  • Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 8, 2019
    Brazil's economic recovery after the deep 2015-16 recession has been the slowest on record, with GDP per capita last year remaining more than 9% below its pre-crisis peak (Chart 1, right side). The IMF's annual report on the country's economy, released two weeks ago, estimated current GDP to be nearly 4% below its potential level, which suggests insufficiency of aggregate demand (Chart 1, left side). On the other hand, as the slow recovery reflects structural factors, it is necessar ...
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    Middle Income Countries and Multilateral Development Banks Traps on the Way to Graduation
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Matheus Cavallari
    Tiago Ribeiro dos Santos
    July 19, 2019
    Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have two financing windows, with different terms, dedicated to low- and middle-income countries. Countries are presumed to cross those windows as their income per capita rises, with middle-income countries (MICs) eventually “graduating” to a non-client status once they reach some criteria. However, due to what may be called “middle-income traps”, such progression toward graduation has been limited to a small number of countries. ...
  • AI for Good: Battling Bias Before it Becomes Irreversible
    Authors
    John Stackhouse
    July 16, 2019
    This article was originally published on RBC Royal Bank's innovation & perspective section. Kevin Vuong, Executive Lead, International & Lecturer, University of Toronto, Canada and Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leader Alum 2018 contributed to this piece. From the route you take home to where you choose to go for lunch, we have our own inherent preferences that predispose us to a particular decision. And while we assume that our choices are rational, we know that isn’t always ...
  • Mercosur-EU trade agreement: Better Late than Never...
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    July 3, 2019
    Twenty years after negotiations began between Mercosur and the European Union (EU), a trade agreement between ministers was reached last Friday in Brussels. Its first phase, from 1999 to 2014, had among the motivations on the European side not to be left behind while the US then pursued a Free Trade Agreement for Latin America (FTAA). Symptomatically, such enthusiasm cooled after FTAA negotiations came to a halt and the United States embarked on bilateral agreements with some countr ...
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    Under Invested The Caribbean-African Relationship
    Authors
    Len Ishmael
    June 27, 2019
    Caribbean and African ties run deep. They are based on a shared history, culture, and sense of a common identity forged by the slave trade which forcibly relocated more than 10 million Africans to the New World, in the process, creating large centres of African Diaspora in the Caribbean and elsewhere. The common historical experiences of slavery and colonialism inspired formation of the Pan-African Movement in the first half of the 1900’s led by the African Diaspora outside of Afric ...
  • A Brief Examination of President Bolsonaro's Initial 6 Months of Foreign Policy
    Authors
    Raphael Camargo
    June 26, 2019
    The author is an alumnus of the 2016 Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program Five brief bullet points: this was the entire contents of President Jair Bolsonaro’s political plan presented during the 2018 Brazilian Presidential race detailing his foreign policy ambitions. Besides the pro-Trump rhetoric, little was known regarding Mr. Bolsonaro’s international relations plan. Elected with 55.13% of the valid votes in a second-round turn, the victory of the Social Liberal Party (PS ...
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    MERCOSUR experience in regional integration: what could Africa learn from it?
    Authors
    Pedro da Motta Veiga
    Sandra Polónia Rios
    June 25, 2019
    MERCOSUR is almost thirty years old. The project has achieved relevant accomplishments, but it has also accumulated many unfulfilled objectives and even some setbacks. It began with a very ambitious goal: the constitution of a common market. This ambition was quickly reduced to a customs union project, still a far-reaching objective. Africa, by its side, has undergone, since many decades, relevant regional and sub-regional integration experiences, some of which share the ambitions o ...
  • Morocco and Brazil: Perspectives for a Strengthened Relationship
    Authors
    Pedro da Motta Veiga
    Sandra Polónia Rios
    June 24, 2019
    The cooperation between Brazil and Morocco dates back to the 19th century, when Moroccan migrants came to Brazil attracted by the then booming exploration of rubber in the Amazon rainforest. In 1861, the Brazilian government opened its first consulate in Tangier.  But it was only since 1961, with the Moroccan independence, that the bilateral relations began to diversify. At the political sphere, there has been a fluid dialogue, driven by convergent views on several issues related t ...
  • Partager Sanctions: America's Chokehold
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    June 21, 2019
    The New York Times reported this morning that after the shot down of an U.S. drone by Iranian forces, President Trump ordered military retaliation, but called it off in the early phase. Below is a facts' review through the international press perspectives. “You are pushing everyone towards a confrontation” Unusually, the satellite images were not presented to the media. Possibly, the photos were taken from a submarine, or there was fear that the enemy could figure out who and how ...
  • Stratégie américaine dans l’Indo-Pacifique: La théorie réaliste, encore et toujours
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    June 19, 2019
    Les Etats-Unis ont alternativement défendu le système westphalien et fustigé ses principes d’équilibre des forces et de non-ingérence dans les affaires intérieures d’autrui en les prétendant immoraux et démodés. Il leur est même arrivé de faire les deux à la fois. Ce qui ne les empêche pas de continuer à affirmer la validité universelle de leurs valeurs pour l’édification d’un ordre mondial pacifique et de se réserver le droit de les soutenir à l’échelle planétaire. Henri Kissinger ...
  • From ‘Rule of Law’ to ‘Law of the Jungle’: Global Trade seen through Twitter
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    June 10, 2019
    This article was originally published on Center for Macroeconomics and development's website Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October. A signed agreement between the two countries, also confirmed by Twitter by Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard, would have included Mexican government’s commitments to take “strong mea ...
  • Will the Multilateral Trading System Survive?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    June 3, 2019
    In a recent brief, titled” The Crisis in World Trade”, my co-authors and I conclude that whether we still have a rules-based system a few years from now depends on the answer to three questions: Can the WTO be revitalized? Is protectionism in the United States a temporary aberration? Will China reform and fit the liberal economic order? If the answer to these three questions is yes, the system will likely endure. If the answer is no, we will return to the power based non system that ...
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    A socioeconomic analysis of ride-hailing emergence and expansion in São Paulo, Brazil
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Renato Schwambach Vieira
    Miguel Stevanato Jacob
    Ana Waksberg Guerrini
    Eduardo Germani
    Fernando Barreto
    Miguel Luiz Bucalem
    Pedro Levy Sayon
    June 3, 2019
    This paper estimates the socioeconomic impacts of the emergence and expansion of e-hailing services in São Paulo, Brazil. Combining data from a major service provider, individual level data from a representative travel diary survey and a structural traffic network simulation, we evaluate the impact of e-hailing on commuters' travel time and accessibility. We then estimate the effect of these changes on workers' productivity. Finally, using a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (S ...
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    The escalating China-US trade dispute: economic and geopolitical implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    May 22, 2019
    The trade tensions between the United States and China will cause only minor immediate damage to their giant economies. However, tariffs have important and diverse effects on individual sectors and cause heightened uncertainty. The main adverse effects on Sub-Saharan Africa will therefore be through global investor confidence, economic growth and commodity prices, and these effects could be severe if the dispute escalates further and endangers the rules-based trading system. The tra ...
  • Poverty reduction in Brazil… partially gone with the cycle
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    May 21, 2019
    Throughout my last 15 years working in multilateral institutions, many times around the world I was asked to speak about the success of poverty reduction in Brazil during the new millennium. Last week, someone who was on such an occasion in October 2013 in Nairobi asked me what my numbers had become after these recent years of precarious macroeconomic performance and high unemployment in the country. I replied that they have changed ... in part! Indeed, the fact that, even without ...
  • Neither Demonic Tyranny Nor Heroic Workers Paradise
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    April 16, 2019
    So much hope: Expectations, anticipation, and promises. So many emotions: Excitement, sentiment, and joy. Mild winds caressing leaves of palm trees, moving in the stimulating rhythm of rumba, possibly salsa. The dancing bodies in harmony with the Caribbean mood. Happiness despite misery. Laughter overwhelming fear. Barack Obama visiting Cuba. Rain and tears unite, pomp unmatched by the Pope visiting the island some years earlier, enthusiasm pure. An Afro-American President is willin ...
  • How Chinese Investment in Latin America Is Changing
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    March 14, 2019
    China's push for Latin American consumers reflects changes back home. Chinese financing in Latin America is changing. After becoming a major source of capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean over the past 15 years, a more diverse range of investors has surfaced, interested in channeling resources towards infrastructure, governments and state companies. The profile of the Chinese investment in the region tracks the evolution of China’s economy as it moves toward a higher r ...