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    4:30 pm February 2022

    La guerre commerciale sino-américaine annonce-t-elle la fin du système commercial d’après-guerre?

    Les hostilités commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis, qui se sont intensifiées sous la présidence de D. Trump et qui se sont poursuivies sous l'administration américaine actuelle, marquent un tournant dans la libéralisation de l'économie mondiale depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Le système commercial mondial est en ruine en raison de cette guerre commerciale, ainsi que du démantèlement du processus de règlement des différends de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce et des violations fréquentes des règles par ses membres. Cependant le système commercial d'après-guerre ne touche pas à sa fin ; il évolue plutôt vers un ensemble d'interactions commerciales plus compliquées, politiques et controversées. La nouvelle structure sera très probablement basée sur une O ...
  • Biden's Presidency: Impact, Challenges, and Future Trends
    June 19, 2024
    Our Senior Fellow, Mr. Dominique Bocquet, presents his report, "Assessing Biden’s Presidency: A Method," offering a thorough analysis of President Joe Biden's administration. The report evaluates Biden's domestic and international policies, highlights key challenges and opportunities, a...
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    Mexico After Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Challenges and Opportunities
    Authors
    Nizar Messari
    June 4, 2024
    On June 2, 2024, Mexico held the biggest election in its history. Over 97 million eligible voters elected 20,375 federal officers, including the president, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies (the lower legislative chamber), and the 128 members of the Senate (the higher legislative chamber). Moreover, for the first time in Mexico’s history, the top candidates were two women, meaning that from December, Mexico will be governed by a woman for the first time. This paper sets out ...
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    Les États-Unis d’Amérique et l’Afrique : une relation en redéfinition perpétuelle
    Authors
    Driss Alaoui Belghiti
    May 8, 2024
    Cet article examine l'évolution des relations entre les États-Unis d’Amérique et l'Afrique, en mettant en lumière la nature cyclique de l'engagement américain et ses implications pour les deux parties. Historiquement, l'Afrique n'a pas été une priorité constante dans la politique étrangère américaine, avec des périodes de collaboration intense alternant avec des moments de négligence relative. Depuis la fin de la guerre froide, l'engagement des États- Unis en Afrique e ...
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    Assessing Biden’s Presidency: A Method
    Authors
    Dominique Bocquet
    April 18, 2024
    The writing of this Report started in november 2023 and benefited during six months from the quality of discussions in the Policy center. Paul Isbel, Professor at UM6P, was a relentless proofreader who generously brought his outstanding competence in economy and political economy. Stephen Gardner went beyond his role as linguistic proofreader and showed an admirable understanding of the substance at stake. Under the direct supervision of Professor Abdelaziz Aitali, the Economic Depa ...
  • The U.S.-Mexico Border in the Shadow of Migration
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    April 15, 2024
    Tanks Are Not Yet Deployed Containers are in place, razor wire and metal barriers, nine meters high. Dogs sniff for illegal intruders, spyware registers noise, alerting border patrol units to people approaching the border, trying to evade National Guard troops. Tanks, mind you, have not yet been deployedon the 1954 miles (3145 kilometer) border between Mexico and the U.S. Migrants who approach dare to pass through ferocious desert, climb harsh mountains, jump on freight trains pass ...
  • Biden’s action: a political economy perspective
    By Otaviano Canuto, Dominique Bocquet, Paul Isbell
    March 01, 2024
    This podcast tackles the intricacies of Biden’s presidency from a political economy standpoint. Our guests initially discuss the degree to which it can be argued that US democracy has rec ...
  • حديث الثلاثاء : هل عادت القطبية الثنائية الدولية؟
    Fathallah Oualalou Imane Lahrich
    June 20, 2023
    سنحاول في هذه الحلقة الوقوف عند إحداثيات وتداعيات عودة هيمنة القطبية الثنائية على المشهد الدولي، بعد نحو 3 عقود من أفولها إثر انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في عام 1991، واحتدام الاستقطاب على و ...
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    La faillite de FTX : Lehman Brothers des cryptomonnaies ?
    Authors
    Henri-Louis Vedie
    June 16, 2023
    Cette étude est consacrée à la faillite de FTX, considérée comme la deuxième plateforme mondiale d’échanges des cryptomonnaies, derrière Binance, avant l’annonce de sa faillite en novembre 2022. Annonce qui va être un véritable coup de tonnerre, les ébranlant très sérieusement. Après avoir rappelé l’indispensable à connaitre des cryptomonnaies et de leurs plateformes d’échange, l’étude rappelle l’historique d’une faillite arrivant au pire moment, avec des cours du ...
  • حديث الثلاثاء : هل عادت القطبية الثنائية الدولية؟
    June 13, 2023
      سنحاول في هذه الحلقة الوقوف عند إحداثيات وتداعيات عودة هيمنة القطبية الثنائية على المشهد الدولي، بعد نحو 3 عقود من أفولها إثر انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في عام 1991، واحتدام الاستقطاب على وقع الأزمة الأوكرانية الذي يهدد عمل المنظمات الدولية وسط تصاعد دعوات إصلاح منظومة الأمم المتحدة بش...
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    الفضاء الأطلسي: محفز للعلاقات بين المغرب وأمريكا اللاتينية
    Authors
    Youssef Tobi
    June 9, 2023
    يمكن للمحيط الأطلسي، في جزئه الجنوبي، الذي لا يزال فضاءً جيوسياسياً غير مستغل، أن يكون بمثابة منصة جديدة للحوار بين الشمال والجنوب. ويمكن للمملكة المغربية، التي تحتل موقعاً استراتيجياً في هذا الفضاء، أن تستغل واجهتها الأطلسية من أجل ضخ دينامية جديدة في علاقتها مع أمريكا اللاتينية لتعزيز التبادلات السياسية والاقتصادية في جنوب الكرة الأرضية. تشهد العلاقات بين المغرب وبلدان أمريكا اللاتينية تغيراً ملحوظاً، ويمكن لإنشاء منصة إقليمية حول جنوب المحيط الأطلسي أن يشجع بلدان أمريكا اللاتينية ...
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    The Atlantic Rim: a catalyst for Morocco-Latin America relations
    Authors
    Youssef Tobi
    June 9, 2023
    The Southern Atlantic Ocean, still an untapped geopolitical space, can be a new platform for dialogue between North and South. The Kingdom of Morocco is strategically placed in this space, and through its Atlantic coastline can breathe new life into the relationship with Latin America, boosting political and economic exchanges within the global South. Relations between Morocco and the countries of Latin America recently saw a notable shift, and a new regional platform around the So ...
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    The U.S. Banking Crisis of 2023 and Its Implications for Africa
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    June 1, 2023
    This Policy Brief examines the current banking crisis in the United States and its implications for Africa. Many studies have pointed out the main factors responsible for this crisis, including poor risk-management practices in the failed banks, the sector’s weak regulatory structure, and the failure of bank supervisors. However, a key factor that has contributed to the extent and speed of the crisis is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy actions, including the elimination of re ...
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    The Current Banking Crisis and U.S. Monetary Policy
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    May 22, 2023
    The current banking crisis in the United States began with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) run in March 2023 and was followed by other bank failures, raising concerns about the health and stability of the financial sector. This Policy Paper traces the root causes of these bank failures and examines the U.S. monetary policy decisions during this period. These bank failures were caused by the poor risk management practices of the failed banks, the sector’s weak regulatory structure, and ...
  • An “Unthinkable” U.S. Public Debt Default
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    May 19, 2023
    Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders that the government could run out of cash as early as June 1, if the debt ceiling is not raised in time. In January, the Treasury reached the current legally established ceiling in nominal terms ($31.46 trillion). The funds currently available to make government payment flows tend to exhaust by the end of this month. According to the Treasury Department: “Failing to increase the debt limit would ha ...
  • D'une bipolarisation à une autre: promesses de l'interdépendance
    Authors
    Fathallah Oualalou
    May 4, 2023
    La première bipolarisation a appartenu au XX° siècle et opposé États-Unis et URSS. Avec la guerre froide, elle était l'expression de la rivalité entre deux systèmes antagonistes. La seconde est née de la montée de la Chine populaire qui est entrée en compétition avec les États-Unis. Une compétition au départ économique et technologique, devenue aussi, au fil du temps, culturelle et stratégique, dans un monde interdépendant et digitalisé, mais également segmenté, complexe et incertai ...
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    Unpacking the Relationship between Crude Oil Financialization and Volatility: The Tale of Speculative Positions
    Authors
    Sabrine Emran
    Otaviano Canuto
    April 28, 2023
    This paper explores the impact of commodities financialization on crude oil prices and their volatility. While some commodities have been market movers for centuries, introducing others, such as oil, to the financial markets is more recent. The increase in investors' appetite for commodity investing has led to commodities’ financialization, which is often considered an amplifier of commodity price volatility. This paper focuses on the relationship between crude oil prices and the fi ...
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    Lessons From the Silicon Valley Bank Crisis
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    March 22, 2023
    Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the United States, experienced a bank run in early March 2023, and was closed by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) on March 10. This bank failure, followed by others, creates fear of contagion throughout the U.S. and global banking systems. This Brief identifies four factors leading to the SVB crisis: i) Sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which adversely affected SVB’s income and balance shee ...
  • Almost all dialogues have been suspended
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    March 2, 2023
    The big menacing balloon, about 60 meters in height and an estimated couple thousand pounds, was not carrying extraterrestrials or some exquisite new covid viruses from Wahun, China. A spying monster, as Washington's Secretary of State, Antony Blinken insisted, deployed by Beijing to "attempt to surveil very sensitive military sites" (CNN, February 19, 2023). The balloon, large as roughly three buses, went over several military installations," in some cases loitering", claimed Bli ...
  • The Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States
    February 23, 2023
    In this video recorded during the Atlantic Dialogues, our Columnist Mr. Helmut Sorge interviews Mr. Jorge Castañeda, Global Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Latin American Studies, New York University on the Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States, Mr. Ca...
  • Our client in Vienna
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    February 20, 2023
    As FBI agent  Charles McGonigal, 54, was used in handcuffs, these metal symbols of repression and the end of freedom. When the former  Special agent in charge( SAC) of the Counter-intelligence Division of the FBIs field office in New York returned from a trip to the Middle East, he suddenly felt the cold iron around his wrists; some of the FBI agents arresting him he certainly knew well-from 1996 until his retirement in 2018 McGonigal specialized in Counterintelligence, organized cr ...
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    Souveraineté numérique : politiques européennes, dilemmes américains
    Authors
    Mathilde Velliet
    February 1, 2023
    La souveraineté numérique européenne, entendue comme « capacité de l’Europe à agir de façon indépendante dans le monde numérique », a été érigée comme priorité par la Commission d’Ursula Von der Leyen. Du fait de la position privilégiée occupée par les entreprises américaines sur le marché européen, les efforts de Bruxelles en matière de souveraineté numérique sont scrutés de près par les décideurs politiques américains. Ces derniers considèrent souvent les initiatives européennes c ...
  • The Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States
    December 16, 2022
    In this video recorded during the Atlantic Dialogues, our Columnist Mr. Helmut Sorge interviews Mr. Jorge Castañeda, Global Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Latin American Studies, New York University on the Situation of Migration in Mexico and the United States, Mr. Ca...
  • ATLANTIC CURRENTS 9th Edition: Cooperation in a Mutating World: Opportunities of the Wider Atlantic
    Authors
    Afaf Zarkik
    Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi
    Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo
    Amaye Sy
    Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    Hamza Rkha Chaham
    Ian O. Lesser
    Jorge Castañeda
    Karim El Aynaoui
    Mohammed Loulichki
    Moubarack Lo
    Sabrine Emran
    Umberto Profazio
    December 14, 2022
    This ninth edition of “Atlantic Currents” appears in an international context marked predominantly by a ten month-war between Russia and Nato members that began February 2022. The war is affecting not only the European and American member States directly and actively involved in an unprecedented manner, but more importantly the countries of the global South that have suffered collateral damage. Indeed, the nations of the world were barely out of the most painful and costly phase o ...
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    Le prix Nobel 2022 d'économie distingue les travaux de Ben S. BernanKe, Douglas W. Diamond, et Philip H. Dybvig sur le rôle des banques dans les crises
    Authors
    Henri-Louis Vedie
    October 14, 2022
    En attribuant le prix Nobel d'économie 2022 à Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond et Philip H. Dybvig, le jury Nobel a voulu distinguer des travaux, remontant aux années 1980, qui permettent de mieux comprendre l'implication des banques dans les crises. Travaux pionniers, également, dans l'élaboration d'une théorie bancaire, où l'analyse historique est présente avec Ben S. Bernanke qui a longuement étudié le rôle des banques dans la crise de 1929, afin de ne pas renouveler les erreu ...
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    The Freedom or Autocracy Dilemma
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    September 28, 2022
    Despite the United States' disastrous record in both Iraq and Afghanistan, President Joe Biden is right in asserting that the world faces a confrontation between autocracy and freedom. And that a choice will ultimately have to be made. This makes people cringe, particularly in Europe, which remains polarized on the subject. ...
  • The fear of political violence
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 14, 2022
    “Be there “, tweeted the President of the United States, “will be wild”. January, 6, 2021, was     supposed to be a historic day. The members of Congress would certify the electoral vote- declaring Joe Biden, the Democrat as 46th   President. Instead a band playing “God bless America” or “Hail to the Chief”, gunfire was heard and insurgents forcing their way into Congress on Capitol Hill, chanting “ Hang Mike Pence”, the Vice President, who was hiding in an underground garage, prote ...
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    Liberté ou autocratie, le dilemme
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    September 7, 2022
    Le président des États-Unis, Joe Biden, malgré les états de service catastrophiques de son pays en Irak ou en Afghanistan, n’a pas tort d’affirmer que le monde va vers un affrontement entre l’autocratie et la liberté. Et, qu’en fin de compte, il va falloir choisir. Cela fait grincer des dents, surtout en Europe qui est divisée sur le sujet. ...
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    Impactful Emerging Leaders of the Wider Atlantic
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    July 12, 2022
    The Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Alumni (ADEL) Portraits are a series of journalistic insights that delve into the stories and backgrounds of impactful young leaders of the ADEL community, now 350 alumni strong. These portraits are more than a biography as they capture the motives, success stories, career shifts, and vision behind each emerging leader’s pursuit of positive impact. From Morocco to South Africa, Germany to Canada, Brazil and the United States, these young leade ...
  • Tightening Financial Conditions Have Impacted Asset Values
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    July 6, 2022
    In the first half of this year, U.S. stock markets suffered a fall not seen in more than 50 years. The S&P 500 index on Thursday June 30 was more than 20% down compared to January, a drop not experienced since 1970. The S&P 1500 index, built by Bloomberg and incorporating companies of various sizes, has seen more than $9 trillion in stock value disappear since January. Except for energy stocks, all sectors have suffered value reductions. On Wednesday June 29, Citi announced ...
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    Somaliland and the Great Powers
    Authors
    Hisham Aidi
    April 26, 2022
    As China’s presence has expanded into the Horn of Africa, Somaliland has opted to distance itself from Beijing and presented itself as a democratic ally of the West – and Taiwan. On March 17, 2022, three Republican Congressmen introduced a bill titled the “Somaliland Partnership Act,” requiring the American Secretary of State to submit annual reports to Congress on assistance provided to Somaliland and conduct a feasibility study on establishing a security partnership with Somalilan ...
  • The myth of stolen elections lives on
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    April 6, 2022
    The insurrection of 6 January 2021, when supporters of then President Donald Trump stormed the US Congress in Washington DC, “is widely viewed as a seminal moment in the history of US democracy,” noted the British The Guardian (January 9, 2022). “Never before had the modern nation witnessed such an organized, violent attempt to overthrow the elected government. Never before, not even at the height of the Civil War, had the Confederated flag flown over the halls of Congress.” This w ...
  • A sad symptom of moral and intellectual decline
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    February 24, 2022
    He is 81 years old, and obviously, his job is not joyful. Or, rather some people he is dealing with, are not just angry about him, but outright murderous. Just a few days before Christmas, a man identified as Kuachua Brillion Xiong, was stopped by police on a highway in the state of Iowa, his car loaded with an AR 15 assault rifle, ammunition, and body armor (Des Moines Register, December 30, 2021) The  25-year-old Californian resident was on his way to Washington, DC- to kill Pres ...
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    USA/Europe: Seven Digital Challenges
    Authors
    Laurence Nardon
    Siméon Rust
    December 6, 2021
    Thanks to the positive momentum in transatlantic relations brought about by the arrival of the Biden administration, significant progress is expected on a range of key digital issues. New rules are emerging that are designed to level the playing field for economic actors and ensure the respect of civil liberties, while significant new investments in technological innovation are taking place amid considerable industrial reorganizations. This paper proposes to shed light on seven part ...
  • Our entire democracy is at risk
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 22, 2021
    Richard Blumenthal, the US Democratic Senator from Connecticut, was shaken by the testimonies of top officials of the Department of Justice during the August 2021 Congressional hearings. The Officials recounted how the former President, Donald Trump, through phone and in private meetings, pressured them to falsify the results of the November 2020 Presidential: "say that the election was corrupt and leave the rest to the congressmen and me". (”Mother Jones”, July 30, 2021) Blumenthal ...
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    Dialogues Stratégiques Volume X: Les rivalités de puissance en Afrique - L’Afrique face au terrorisme
    Authors
    Pascal Chaigneau
    Khalid Chegraoui
    Eugène Berg
    Rodolphe Monnet
    Mohammed Loulichki
    Jacques Gravereau
    Larabi Jaïdi
    Jérémy Ghez
    Olivier Tramond
    Abdelhak Bassou
    Niagalé Bagayoko
    Alain Oudot de Dainville
    Jérôme Evrard
    Coordination de l’ouvrage: Imane Lahrich
    Fatine Cherkaoui
    October 28, 2021
    Depuis l’accession au trône du Roi Mohammed VI, l’Afrique s’est transformée en priorité de la diplomatie marocaine. Sur le plan économique, l’Afrique est devenue le prolongement naturel du Maroc en termes d’investissements et d’implantations. Pascal Chaigneau s’attarde sur les relations affaiblies Europe-Afrique, l’ambitieuse relation Chine-Afrique ainsi que les relations entre la Russie, les Etats-Unis, la Turquie ou encore les pays du Golf et l’Afrique. Ce chapitre traite égalemen ...
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    The Fall of Kabul and the Taliban 2.0
    Authors
    El Mostafa Rezrazi
    August 24, 2021
    The Taliban movement took control of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, without confrontation or resistance, as soon as the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. Afghan forces were not able to face the Taliban, despite of the fact that Taliban was technically outnumbered and outgunned by Afghan government forces. The New American administration first priority is to make US military mission in Afghanistan conclude by August 31st. Biden believes that the mission US army in Afghanistan ...
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    U.S. Bubble-Led Macroeconomics
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 12, 2021
    Macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. economy has increasingly become associated with asset price fluctuations in the past few decades. Financial conditions have increasingly become an influential factor shaping the cyclical pace of the macroeconomy. There has been a mismatch between rising financial wealth and the pace of creation and incorporation of new assets. Several secular stagnation hypotheses offer explanations for the insufficient creation of new assets. Public debt—and its p ...
  • Biden’s Surprises
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Uri Dadush
    May 17, 2021
    Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. elections was widely anticipated, and much of what has happened since he took office on January 21 has conformed to his election promise. The progress he helped steer in vaccinations and repairing the pandemic’s economic damage is especially impressive. However, the first 100 days of his term have also seen major unexpected developments. Three of these surprises have both major implications for the U.S. economic outlook, and global repercussions. The ...
  • Adel Portrait: Dr. Carolina Zuheill Rosales, a Mexican Doctor with a cause
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    February 23, 2021
    The Covid-19 pandemic has induced a major shift in Carolina Zuheill Rosales’ career. This internal medicine doctor founded Guimedic in 2011, when she was 25. Through its mobile clinics, this NGO provides medical consultations in remote and poor areas throughout Mexico. The main focus is to treat indigenous communities. Because of a structural lack of medical access to these populations, she has launched in March 2020 Promesa, a social business that is using artificial intelligence. ...
  • The Vaccine, the Economy, and Governance
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 30, 2020
    According to this month’s OECD economic outlook, global GDP --- which took a huge hit from the pandemic and is still 3% below its level of a year ago – will not recover its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021. In a downside scenario, the return could take almost a year longer. The OECD predictions, which imply high and protracted unemployment, are in line with the view of many other official and private organizations. The arrival of effective vaccines such as Pfizer-BioNTech wa ...
  • Swinging the Pendulum: American Foreign Policy at the Apex of Political Polarization
    Authors
    Salma Daoudi
    December 25, 2020
    The maxim that in adversity we find unity has never truly materialized following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite fighting a common enemy, individual societies have turned inwards, moved by a self-preservation instinct that prioritizes individual over collective well-being. Outbursts and demonstrations of solidarity have punctuated national and international responses to COVID-19, but the virus has also often exacerbated structural inequalities, reopening ol ...
  • Happy New Year?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 23, 2020
    This article was originally published on Bruegel  A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects. At the end of a tragic year marked by pandemic and increased poverty, the miraculously rapid arrival of vaccines stirs great hope. The COVID-19 recession ...
  • They Did Not Want Compromise and Consensus. They Wanted War
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    December 22, 2020
    “When I got home late that night, the house was dark and Michelle was already asleep. After taking a shower and going through a stack of mail, I slipped under the covers and began drifting off. In that luminal space between wakefulness and sleep, I imagined myself stepping toward a portal of some sort, a bright and cold and airless place, uninhabited and severed from the world. And behind me, out of the darkness, I heard a voice, sharp and clear, as if someone were right next to me, ...
  • The Peaceful Transfer of Power: An Instantaneous Hereditary Principle Steeped in Necessity and Tradition
    Authors
    Yahya Drissi-Daoudi
    December 16, 2020
    During the last few weeks, the United States has seen unfold one of its most contentious elections to date, which also registered a record turnout. While the results trickled in after November 3, each camp reassured its base regarding its confidence in a win, President Trump going as far as calling the election in his favor on Twitter. The following weekend, news outlets began calling the Presidency in favor of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, who served under President Obama ...
  • Les Mardis du PCNS 01/12/2020: الثابت والمتحول في السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية
    December 1, 2020
    جرت الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية 2020 في ظل ظروف استثنائية عرفت متابعة شاملة لمجرياتها في مختلف بلدان العالم لما لها من وقع على مستقبل التحالفات والسياسات الخارجية للدول. كيف يمكن تحليل السياق الذي جرت فيه الانتخابات من أجل فهم التحديات الرئيسية للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على المستويين...
  • Regards juridiques sur les élections présidentielles américaines
    Authors
    Abdessalam Jaldi
    November 30, 2020
    Le suspens électoral américain s’est achevé le samedi 7 septembre par la victoire du candidat démocrate Joe Biden comme 46ème président des Etats-Unis, en franchissant la barre fatidique des 270 grands électeurs lui garantissant la victoire le 14 décembre prochain au sein du Collège électoral. Néanmoins, le président sortant Donald Trump, refusant de reconnaître le verdict des urnes, semble déterminé à poursuivre son bras de fer judiciaire engagé devant les tribunaux pour contester ...
  • The challenge is, what comes next?
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    November 27, 2020
    As President elect Biden prepares for the enormous responsibility of becoming President of the United States (US), there is one question I want to ask him, writes Stephen Young, Washington Representative and Senior Analyst of the ”Union of Concerned Scientists” on November 7th, 2020: “Sir ,are you a fan of nuclear arms race? Because you are being handed one, a burgeoning nuclear and technology arms race waged by Russia, China and the United States.” Two weeks after Joe Biden will be ...
  • What Could President-Elect Joe Biden’s African Strategy Be?
    Authors
    Souha Majidi
    November 26, 2020
    The Trump Administration “America First” policy changed U.S. foreign policy towards the African continent. Trump opposed trade agreements with several countries, considering them to be unfavorable to the U.S., given the nature of the African market. He shifted the U.S. concern in Africa from fighting against violent extremism and terrorism to a direct competition with other great powers—China and Russia—which had already extensively implemented African strategies. He endeavored to r ...
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    Biden et la politique étrangère américaine de sécurité : redonner confiance aux alliés
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    November 19, 2020
    Le mandat du président Trump qui, sauf miracle, s’achève en janvier 2021, avait soumis à rude épreuve les alliances des Etats-Unis d’Amérique avec plusieurs pays et entités européens et asiatiques. Plusieurs de ces alliés stratégiques des Etats-Unis avaient, alors, perdu confiance en l’esprit de solidarité qui a toujours empreint l’action étasunienne à leur égard, et amorcé des réflexions sur la construction de leurs propres systèmes de défense. L’arrivée à la Maison Blanche d’un no ...
  • Biden : la mécanique du succès
    Authors
    Dominique Bocquet
    November 2, 2020
    La perspective d’une victoire de Joe Biden s’est heurtée, jusqu’au bout, au scepticisme des observateurs, en raison du précédent de 2016 : ils n’avaient, alors, pas vu venir la défaite d’Hillary Clinton et le triomphe de Trump, en retard dans les sondages. Mais, l’élection de 2020 n’est pas celle de 2016. D’abord, l’avance de Biden est bien supérieure à celle dont disposait Hillary Clinton. A la veille du scrutin, celle-ci avait deux ou trois points d’avance dans les sondages par ...
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    After Trump
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    October 16, 2020
    Whether President Trump is reelected or not, the United States will, sooner or later, revert to a traditonalist foreign policy of openness and alliances. If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump on November 3, as he is expected to do, the United States will return to a traditionalist brand of foreign policy: one of openness, support for multilateralism, and constructive engagement with allies. But even if Biden doesn’t winwhich is possible—and four more years of Trump’s America First polici ...
  • QAnon and Creeping Conspiracy Theories
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    October 8, 2020
    The so-called QAnon conspiracy theory has inspired groups with millions of members on Facebook and is considered by some observers to be “a new American religion”. For the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, however, the conspiracy theorists could pose a domestic terrorist threat. Q followers believe the baseless messages of their faceless leader(s) that a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is running a global child-trafficking ring and plotting against Donald Trump, who is bat ...
  • The American People, Not Vladimir Putin Should Decide Who is President of the United States
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 28, 2020
    Bank robbers are now and then caught because banks, insurance companies, or robbed personalities promise rewards for the arrest of criminals. In the past, Hollywood took the lead in dreaming up such scenarios. But in early August, the U.S. State Department offered a $10 million reward for information leading “to the identification or location of any person, who works with or for a foreign government for the purpose of interfering with U.S. elections through certain illegal cyber act ...
  • Not a Good Loser
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 16, 2020
    If America votes Donald Trump out of office in November, will he go? Just a few days ago (Sept. 13), one of Trump’s closest political friends, Roger Stone, publicly suggested to the President that if the votes should go against him, he should alert the military, ready to defend his power, and arrest opponents including the Clintons or Microsoft boss Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook fame. Stone was sentenced in February 2020 to 40 months in jail for witness tampering, making ...
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    Contribution à un ordre monétaire international tripolaire
    Authors
    Mohammed Germouni
    August 12, 2020
    En dépit d’une diminution du contrôle des changes, le cours d’une devise continue de se jouer, jusqu’ici encore, en fonction de l’importance du poids considérable des relations financières qu’elle permet et facilite. Autant la monnaie américaine demeurait la devise-clé, en raison de la puissance tant économique que sécuritaire qu’elle reflète, autant l’Euro et le Yen n’en sont pas moins bien présents, également, sur les marchés que dans les réserves monétaires des divers pays. Certe ...
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    Industrie automobile nationale face à la Covid-19 : faut-il se préoccuper de l’impact sur le compte courant ?
    Authors
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    August 7, 2020
    L’industrie automobile mondiale est confrontée à une année 2020 des plus difficiles. La pandémie est apparue pour la première fois dans une région chinoise réputée pour son secteur automobile développé. Dans un premier temps, ce sont les constructeurs sudasiatiques qui ont subi les premières ondes de l’arrêt de l’activité en Chine avant que le foyer pandémique se déplace en Europe et aux Etats-Unis et que la perturbation des chaînes de valeurs prenne une dimension cette fois-ci mond ...
  • All Options Are on the Table
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    June 26, 2020
    At the beginning of June, officers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, usually active on America’s periphery, were deployed to Washington D.C., where President Donald Trump had sighted an internal threat posed by “anarchists, agitators, looters, or lowlifes”. In reality, American citizens were protesting, mostly peacefully, against police brutality, and the killings of African-Americans by cops. Nevertheless, the urban revolt seemed grave enough for the Trump Administration to ...
  • Is the United States Reopening Safely?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    June 12, 2020
    The United States has suffered more COVID-19 casualties than any other country and continues to report large numbers of new cases and deaths, and – as evident recently in stock markets – investors remain extremely sensitive to the epidemic’s shifting trends. As every state reopens, including most recently the New York epicenter, the fates of the American economy and of the global economy depend on whether the United States has put the worst of the epidemic behind it, or whether it w ...
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    L’aide au développement américaine dans le domaine de la santé en Afrique : Analyse à la lumière de la Déclaration de Paris
    Authors
    Souha Majidi
    June 5, 2020
    Face à l’ampleur des retombées économiques et sociales des crises sanitaires, comme la Covid19, l’aide publique au développement peut jouer un rôle essentiel dans l’atténuation de l’impact des épidémies sur les économies les plus fragiles et vulnérables. L'aide publique au développement (APD) vise non seulement à combler le manque de capital nécessaire à amorcer une dynamique forte de développement, mais aussi à amorcer la capacité des Etats à répondre aux risques sanitaires et sécu ...
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    Contribution des Armées à la lutte contre le Covid-19
    Authors
    Taoufik Marrakchi
    June 2, 2020
    Héros méconnus de la lutte contre le Covid-19, les professionnels du secteur de la santé publique ont assuré leurs charges avec des ressources qui se sont avérées insuffisantes : le déficit de personnels spécialisés, amplifié par des problèmes de logistique, ont fortement porté préjudice à l’efficacité de leurs actions. Face à cette situation contraignante, nombreux sont les Etats qui ont appelé leurs armées en renfort, eu égard à leur expertise en matière de gestion des risques, me ...
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    Rivalité sino-américaine : La Covid-19, frein ou amplificateur selon les comportements des acteurs
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    May 27, 2020
    Les tensions dans les relations entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine sont un sujet de préoccupation pour le monde. En dépit des quelques ouvertures éphémères, qui donnent parfois espoir à la détente, la tendance de ces derniers temps est plutôt vers l’escalade. Il ne se passe pas un mois, voire une semaine sans qu’actions, déclarations ou positions de l’un des deux pays contre l’autre ne fasse la Une de l’actualité. Des incidents les plus dangereux en Mer de Chine méridionale, aux mesur ...
  • The Gravity of the Threat
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 22, 2020
    On February 3, 2003, Colin Powell, U.S. President George Bush’s Secretary of State, informed the United Nations Security Council about secret information collected by the U.S. about Iraq’s weapons of mass destructions. “Every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions,” he said. There was “no doubt in my mind” that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapons program, and the invasion of Iraq was urgent and justified, because “the gravity of this ...
  • The Virus Passed the Electrified Barbed Wire
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 11, 2020
    They live in the shadow of death: the United States has 2,650 death-row inmates, 740 in California’s San Quentin State Prison alone. Today, these prisoners fear another executioner, the invisible COVID-19. The condemned on death row live in single cells, some having spent many decades in solitary confinement. The suicide rate is high, and many die of natural causes before their rendezvous with the special execution team. These prisoners hardly ever receive visitors, and for them th ...
  • Bring Light Inside the Body
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    May 4, 2020
    For the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Thursday April 23, 2020, would turn out to be one of those wasted days. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are declining, the number of unemployed is rising into historic dimensions. White House reporters were needling him about missing ventilators, the lack of protective gear for medical personnel, and almost 60,000 COVID-19 deaths, more than the number of Americans who died on the battlefields of Vietnam. Instinctively, Donald ...
  • World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future
    Authors
    Mehmet Sait Akman
    Uri Dadush
    Shiro Armstrong
    Anabel Gonzalez
    Fukunari Kimura
    Junji Nakagawa
    Peter Rashish
    Akihiko Tamura
    Carlos A. Primo Braga
    February 9, 2020
    In the context of his role as chair of the T20 task force « Trade, Investment and Globalization », our senior fellow, Uri Dadush has led the T20 brief under the theme "World Trading System Under Stress: Scenarios for the Future", which has been published in Global Policy. The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep‐seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on r ...
  • American Presidential Elections. Interview with Helmut Sorge
    January 30, 2020
    Questions: 1/ In the first two weeks of February, the Presidential Elections will begin in earnest. The Democrats begin to choose their candidats in the so called Primaries. Who is the favorite ? 2/ Does any of those candidats have a chance to win against Donald Trump ? 3/ Could Michael...
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    La “révolution énergétique” américaine : les Etats-Unis vont devenir un exportateur net de pétrole en 2020
    Authors
    Francis Perrin
    January 23, 2020
    Selon les projections officielles de l’U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), les Etats-Unis deviendraient en 2020 un pays exportateur net de pétrole et de produits raffinés, ce qui serait une première depuis les années 1950. Les exportations pétrolières nettes du pays seraient de 570 000 barils par jour, en 2020, alors qu’en 2018 il était importateur net à hauteur de 2,34 millions de b/j. En 2005, les importations pétrolières nettes représentaient 60% de la consommation pétr ...
  • Iran-USA: "Hybrid" Wars Confront « Might Makes Right »
    Authors
    Alfredo Da Gama e Abreu Valladão
    January 17, 2020
    The drone strike that claimed the life of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani unmasks the limits of so-called "hybrid" – or "asymmetric" – strategies. These low-intensity military operations, conducted through unofficial paramilitary forces, are supposed to allow a weaker state to gain geopolitical advantages without risking an open war with a stronger one. The idea is to gradually accumulate small tactical victories by capitalizing on more powerful states’ lack of appetite for distant ...
  • The US-China Trade War Is Accelerating China’s Rebalancing
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    November 8, 2019
    The Trump government has been imposing restrictions on access to technologies by Chinese telecommunications firms. Why and what are the consequences? The Federal Communications Commission is about to ban carriers from using government funds to buy equipment from Huawei and ZTE. Other government agencies are expected to take similar measures. This is just the latest episode of a gradual squeeze that the Trump government has been giving over China's telecommunications giant Huawei, ...
  • Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 30, 2019
    Despite some short-term benefits, trade deviation to the region shouldn’t be expected to last. Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America? An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has. But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on gl ...
  • 18 ans après les attaques terroristes du 11 Septembre 2001 (2/2)
    September 12, 2019
    A l'occasion de la commémoration des attentats du 11 septembre, le Policy Center for the New South a demandé à El Mostafa Rezrazi, expert en sécurité et Senior Fellow : 1/ Dans quelle mesure les attaques du 11 Septembre 2001 étaient venues mettre fin au ‘’monde ancien’’ ? 2/ Quel état d...
  • Fed Monetary Policy, Inverted Yield Curve and Outlook for US and Global Economy
    Authors
    Satyandra Nayak
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 27, 2019
    Since the Fed’s July meeting, when the Fed Funds Rate had a 0.25% cut, fears about the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy have escalated. The US yield curve inversion received much attention as a harbinger of a slowdown in the global and US economic outlooks. We approach here whether lights on next monetary policy events can be obtained from reading the minutes of the Fed’s meeting – and of the July meeting of the ECB governing council – released this week. The ...
  • Trump's Backfiring Trade Policy
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Laurence Kotlikoff
    August 15, 2019
    Thirty months into President Trump's radical trade policy, it is time to take stock. American firms tend to give the President the benefit of the doubt - that the aim is not protection (which most don't want) but opening up markets overseas, striking better trade deals, and reducing the nation's big trade deficit. So far, however, none of this has happened. Instead, there is virulent uncertainty, barriers against American firms are going up, Europe, Japan and China have struck impor ...
  • AI for Good: Battling Bias Before it Becomes Irreversible
    Authors
    John Stackhouse
    July 16, 2019
    This article was originally published on RBC Royal Bank's innovation & perspective section. Kevin Vuong, Executive Lead, International & Lecturer, University of Toronto, Canada and Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leader Alum 2018 contributed to this piece. From the route you take home to where you choose to go for lunch, we have our own inherent preferences that predispose us to a particular decision. And while we assume that our choices are rational, we know that isn’t always ...
  • Partager Sanctions: America's Chokehold
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    June 21, 2019
    The New York Times reported this morning that after the shot down of an U.S. drone by Iranian forces, President Trump ordered military retaliation, but called it off in the early phase. Below is a facts' review through the international press perspectives. “You are pushing everyone towards a confrontation” Unusually, the satellite images were not presented to the media. Possibly, the photos were taken from a submarine, or there was fear that the enemy could figure out who and how ...
  • Stratégie américaine dans l’Indo-Pacifique: La théorie réaliste, encore et toujours
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    June 19, 2019
    Les Etats-Unis ont alternativement défendu le système westphalien et fustigé ses principes d’équilibre des forces et de non-ingérence dans les affaires intérieures d’autrui en les prétendant immoraux et démodés. Il leur est même arrivé de faire les deux à la fois. Ce qui ne les empêche pas de continuer à affirmer la validité universelle de leurs valeurs pour l’édification d’un ordre mondial pacifique et de se réserver le droit de les soutenir à l’échelle planétaire. Henri Kissinger ...
  • From ‘Rule of Law’ to ‘Law of the Jungle’: Global Trade seen through Twitter
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    June 10, 2019
    This article was originally published on Center for Macroeconomics and development's website Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October. A signed agreement between the two countries, also confirmed by Twitter by Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard, would have included Mexican government’s commitments to take “strong mea ...
  • Will the Multilateral Trading System Survive?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    June 3, 2019
    In a recent brief, titled” The Crisis in World Trade”, my co-authors and I conclude that whether we still have a rules-based system a few years from now depends on the answer to three questions: Can the WTO be revitalized? Is protectionism in the United States a temporary aberration? Will China reform and fit the liberal economic order? If the answer to these three questions is yes, the system will likely endure. If the answer is no, we will return to the power based non system that ...
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    The escalating China-US trade dispute: economic and geopolitical implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    May 22, 2019
    The trade tensions between the United States and China will cause only minor immediate damage to their giant economies. However, tariffs have important and diverse effects on individual sectors and cause heightened uncertainty. The main adverse effects on Sub-Saharan Africa will therefore be through global investor confidence, economic growth and commodity prices, and these effects could be severe if the dispute escalates further and endangers the rules-based trading system. The tra ...
  • (FR) PLENARY V: THE UNMAKING OF THE AMERICAN WORLD ORDER
    December 14, 2018
    PLENARY V: THE UNMAKING OF THE AMERICAN WORLD ORDER Moderator: Alan Kasujja, Presenter, BBC News Speakers: Reuben E. Brigety II, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University Neelam Deo, Founder, and Director, Indian Council on Global Relations Gateway ...
  • (EN) PLENARY V: THE UNMAKING OF THE AMERICAN WORLD ORDER
    December 14, 2018
    PLENARY V: THE UNMAKING OF THE AMERICAN WORLD ORDER Moderator: Alan Kasujja, Presenter, BBC News Speakers: Reuben E. Brigety II, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University Neelam Deo, Founder, and Director, Indian Council on Global Relations Gateway ...
  • Trump and his Friends (Part 1)
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    December 3, 2018
    “LEARN TO LIVE IN A WORLD WHERE AMERICA HAS NO ALLIES” In a review about the novel, Night of Camp David, published by the New York Times in 1965, a critic called the book “too plausible for comfort.” Nineteen sixty-five, ironically, was the same year that the “American congress passed the 25th Amendment, which provides a mechanism for removing a president who is deemed unfit to serve,” as reminded Alexandra Alter in the NYT article. An unknown writer, a high-ranking advisor of the ...
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    Assessing the EU-North Africa trade agreements
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Yana Myachenkova
    November 27, 2018
    - The trade agreements that the European Union has with North African countries – with Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia – are often seen as having delivered disappointing results since they came into force during the 2000s. The four North African countries have seen insufficient growth in their exports to the EU, and have undergone only limited diversification. In the meantime, the EU’s exports to North Africa have grown quite rapidly. - Economic growth in North Africa has been ...
  • L’avenir du travail : quel effet d’une automatisation accrue ?
    Authors
    Yassine Msadfa
    November 5, 2018
    Il y a une dizaine d’années, le nombre et la complexité des taches que pouvaient effectuer les robots semblaient encore limités. Aujourd’hui, certains robots, munis d’une intelligence artificielle développée, réussissent à apprendre et à exceller dans des jeux de stratégie assez complexes, comme les échecs ou le jeu de GO. Le développement de la robotique, de l’intelligence artificielle et de l’automatisation, en général, s’est fait de façon relativement rapide, incitant plusieurs e ...
  • An African Pope?
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    October 25, 2018
    These Sober Sisters are not Attracted by Cosmetics Perhaps they were two dozen women, possibly less. They were glued to the wooden floor, just like geese or storks flying in formation, being pushed by time and the winds and currents above the clouds from the wintery Europe to Morocco. No sound or movement by the frail bodies, dressed in their simple brown habit. Just the arms stretched out, and their eyes focused on a statue of Mary, the ever-blessed mother of Jesus Christ, son of ...
  • Space and Debris
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    October 3, 2018
    TEARS OF JOY CHANGED INTO THOSE OF PAIN January 28, 1986. It was just another day in the whirlpool of news and speculations of a new Foreign Correspondent to be assigned to the White House. Shivering on his way to the most important political center of the Western World, resisting arctic cold and snow on the way to work, hardly ever seeing the President himself. Instead, he found himself on this fateful day in a rendez-vous with Tom Foley, majority leader in the House of Representa ...
  • Trump and the Future
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    September 28, 2018
    “ARE THEY PLAYING US? I DO NOT KNOW” There they were, the North Koreans, covered by red flags, and more red flags — a Hollywood production indeed. Were the soldiers singing? There was nothing to sing about since they're marching for endless hours, being scrutinized by cameras and bothered by aching pains of hunger, unable to speak and stimulate their voice. The colonel in charge of the marchers may discover some rusty spot on a belt buckle or a truck on parade may run out of fuel - ...
  • La "Trump/Buhari story" contrariée par l’affaire des Chrétiens nigérians
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    August 31, 2018
    En avril 2018, le président Donald Trump recevait, à la Maison-Blanche, le président nigérian, Muhammadu Buhari, qui venait d’annoncer sa candidature pour briguer un second mandat à la tête du Nigéria. La visite avait une valeur de première car, en effet, c’était la première visite officielle d'un dirigeant africain depuis l'investiture de Donald Trump. Les deux hommes tenaient à la réussite d’une telle visite : --Trump voulait, d’une part, consolider les relations avec un pays qui ...
  • Quand les grands se fâchent, le monde panique !
    Authors
    Tayeb Ghazi
    August 13, 2018
    Depuis la fin de l’année 2017, le président Donald Trump mène plusieurs batailles commerciales, contre différents partenaires, sous prétextes de sauver des emplois industriels américains et de réduire le déficit commercial des États-Unis. S’il est difficile de se prononcer sur les effets des combats commerciaux amorcés par le président Trump, l’importance des opposants et des échanges pour l’économie mondiale en fait une source de risque pour la croissance, les emplois et les prix à ...
  • Global imbalances and currency bullying
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 6, 2018
    The IMF released last July 24 its latest assessments of the current account balances for the 30 largest economies in its External Sector Report 2018 (ESR). There was no major change in 2017 relative to previous years and the reconfiguration of surpluses and deficits that has prevailed since 2013 was essentially extended. However, there are reasons to expect more abrupt alterations ahead, as the U.S. fiscal easing under high employment conditions unfolds. Given the context of ongoing ...
  • Four Dangerous Illusions about the Looming Trade War
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    July 10, 2018
    Historians often offer different interpretations of the events that have shaped our destiny, yet, with respect to World War 2, the bloodiest conflict in history, they seem to concur on two points. First, that those yearning for peace underestimated the National Socialists’ determination to wage a war of conquest until it was far too late to deter them, and, second, that Nazi Germany failed to anticipate that Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union – each of which it provok ...
  • Americans in Africa
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    July 4, 2018
    “NONE OF AFRICA’S PROBLEMS CAN BE RESOLVED THROUGH MILITARY FORCE” Colonel Raul Rivas arrived in dress uniform, his parachute citations well polished. His ribbons for bravery and combat duty were aligned at the upper left-hand side of his jacket, a colorful display of combat, death and battles in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The Colonel, just a few years above 40, and despite his 21 years in the military, was as “proud of being an American as one can be,” a true patriot. He jumped out ...
  • Emerging markets face multiple tantrums
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    July 3, 2018
    The addition of a fourth US rate rise to the Federal Reserve’s 2018 dot-plot graph after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee sparked a bout of portfolio outflows from emerging markets. This followed a fleeting upswing at the beginning of the month that fell short on reversing the unwinding of exposure and sell-off of assets in May (Chart 1). Country differentiation has been accentuated, with exchange rate devaluation pressures and capital outflows occurring more no ...