North America

ربما شكّلت نتائج الانتخابات الأمريكية مفاجأةً للعديد من المراقبين، حيث أظهرت العديد من الدروس المهمة حول التحولات الجديدة المرتبطة بإدارة الرأي العام وقدرة هذا الأخير على التعبير عن توجهاته بطرق قد تكون مدهشة، خاصة للمتخصصين في مجال ما يُطلَق عليه "علم اتجاهات الرأي العام" "، الذي يتسم بأساليب معقدة من الحيل والخدع والتضليل . وقد شكّل دونالد ترامب تحديًا كبيرًا أمام وسائل الإعلام، خصوصًا تلك التي تُحسب على التيار الديمقراطي والتي سعت جاهدة شيطنته وإقصاءه من المشهد الإعلامي. لكن، رغم ...

إذا تبنينا نهج التحليل الديمقراطي لتفسير أسباب الهزيمة ودرسنا أسباب صعود ترامب مقابل تراجع الديمقراطيين، نجد أن السردية المطروحة غالبًا ما تفترض أن  الرأي العام يجب أن يتبنى تلقائيًا الخيار الديمقراطي ، وأن أي انحراف عن ذلك يعكس وجود خلل ما . غير أن هذا التحليل ، يكشف  أن الخلل الأول يكمن في  طبيعة الحزب الديمقراطي الأمريكي نفسه، الذي انزلق نحو النمطية المطلقة وفقد بذلك الكثير من جاذبيته وصورته التي كانت تسوقه كحزب "تقدمي" أو "مستنير". إلى جانب ذلك، ساهم الحزب الديمقراطي في إضعاف م ...

This essay examines the implications of the new Trump administration’s ‘America First’ approach for multilateralism, particularly in the context of the Bretton Woods institutions and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its consequences for the New South. The first Trump administration’s selective multilateralism, marked by the prioritization of U.S. interests over global cooperation, contributed to a more fragmented global order. This was seen in the administration’s withdrawal ...

Le 5 novembre 2024, Donald Trump a gagné son duel face à Kamala Harris. Le 45ème président des États-Unis sera aussi le 47ème et il prendra ses fonctions à la Maison Blanche le 20 janvier 2025. Les politiques de la future Administration Trump seront évidemment très différentes de celles qu’aurait pu conduire une Administration Harris et de celles de l’Administration Biden depuis janvier 2021 et c’est aussi le cas pour les questions énergétiques. Mais une chose est sûre : que la prem ...

This brief presents an analysis of key trends and observations from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in which I participated through the American Council of Young Political Leaders (ACYPL) Election Exchange Program, organized in collaboration with the U.S. Department of State. The program offered a comprehensive exploration of contemporary U.S. electoral dynamics, focusing on party strategies, demographic shifts, media influence, and campaign finance. The insights presented here ...

Beyond partisan rhetoric, November's election in the United States can determine America's approach to a rapidly shifting world order. Donald Trump's first term, from 2016 to 2020, marked a historic departure from the post-Second World War bipartisan consensus. His ‘America First’ approach introduced a transactional view of international relations that continues to shape the current political landscape. This approach was seen in actions such as Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Clim ...

This paper examines the implications of the U.S.-China trade war for developing countries, particularly in light of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The study traces the origins and escalation of the trade conflict, analyzing its multiple impacts on global trade patterns and economic growth. While some developing countries have benefited from trade diversion and supply-chain shifts, others, especially resource-exporting nations and the least-developed countries, have faced signi ...

The 2024 Presidential election in the United States will be historic and consequential. Both candidates are history-making in different ways. Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, is the first woman of African and Asian descent to become the Democratic Party’s nominee, while President Trump won his party’s nomination without participating in any Republic Primary debates. Even more strikingly different are their parties’ platforms—what they would do if elected. However, i ...

Les élections présidentielles américaines de 2024 se déroulent dans un contexte de polarisation politique marquée, qui reflète les divisions idéologiques et sociales au sein de la société américaine. Ce phénomène résulte de diverses dynamiques structurelles, telles que le ‘’gerrymandering’’, l'évolution des médias, l'essor des réseaux sociaux, et un système de financement des campagnes électorales dominé par de grands donateurs. Ces facteurs ont contribué à redéfinir le paysage poli ...

In November, U.S. voters will decide who will take control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and their political parties differ significantly on key economic policy proposals that will heavily impact the economy of the country and, therefore, the world. Here, we examine examples in the fields of trade, tax, energy, and immigration. On trade, although the Democrat administration of President Joe Biden has not been a bastio ...

On June 2, 2024, Mexico held the biggest election in its history. Over 97 million eligible voters elected 20,375 federal officers, including the president, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies (the lower legislative chamber), and the 128 members of the Senate (the higher legislative chamber). Moreover, for the first time in Mexico’s history, the top candidates were two women, meaning that from December, Mexico will be governed by a woman for the first time. This paper sets out ...

Cet article examine l'évolution des relations entre les États-Unis d’Amérique et l'Afrique, en mettant en lumière la nature cyclique de l'engagement américain et ses implications pour les deux parties. Historiquement, l'Afrique n'a pas été une priorité constante dans la politique étrangère américaine, avec des périodes de collaboration intense alternant avec des moments de négligence relative. Depuis la fin de la guerre froide, l'engagement des États- Unis en Afrique e ...

The writing of this Report started in november 2023 and benefited during six months from the quality of discussions in the Policy center. Paul Isbel, Professor at UM6P, was a relentless proofreader who generously brought his outstanding competence in economy and political economy. Stephen Gardner went beyond his role as linguistic proofreader and showed an admirable understanding of the substance at stake. Under the direct supervision of Professor Abdelaziz Aitali, the Economic Depa ...

Tanks Are Not Yet Deployed Containers are in place, razor wire and metal barriers, nine meters high. Dogs sniff for illegal intruders, spyware registers noise, alerting border patrol units to people approaching the border, trying to evade National Guard troops. Tanks, mind you, have not yet been deployedon the 1954 miles (3145 kilometer) border between Mexico and the U.S. Migrants who approach dare to pass through ferocious desert, climb harsh mountains, jump on freight trains pass ...

Cette étude est consacrée à la faillite de FTX, considérée comme la deuxième plateforme mondiale d’échanges des cryptomonnaies, derrière Binance, avant l’annonce de sa faillite en novembre 2022. Annonce qui va être un véritable coup de tonnerre, les ébranlant très sérieusement. Après avoir rappelé l’indispensable à connaitre des cryptomonnaies et de leurs plateformes d’échange, l’étude rappelle l’historique d’une faillite arrivant au pire moment, avec des cours du ...

يمكن للمحيط الأطلسي، في جزئه الجنوبي، الذي لا يزال فضاءً جيوسياسياً غير مستغل، أن يكون بمثابة منصة جديدة للحوار بين الشمال والجنوب. ويمكن للمملكة المغربية، التي تحتل موقعاً استراتيجياً في هذا الفضاء، أن تستغل واجهتها الأطلسية من أجل ضخ دينامية جديدة في علاقتها مع أمريكا اللاتينية لتعزيز التبادلات السياسية والاقتصادية في جنوب الكرة الأرضية. تشهد العلاقات بين المغرب وبلدان أمريكا اللاتينية تغيراً ملحوظاً، ويمكن لإنشاء منصة إقليمية حول جنوب المحيط الأطلسي أن يشجع بلدان أمريكا اللاتينية ...

The Southern Atlantic Ocean, still an untapped geopolitical space, can be a new platform for dialogue between North and South. The Kingdom of Morocco is strategically placed in this space, and through its Atlantic coastline can breathe new life into the relationship with Latin America, boosting political and economic exchanges within the global South. Relations between Morocco and the countries of Latin America recently saw a notable shift, and a new regional platform around the So ...

This Policy Brief examines the current banking crisis in the United States and its implications for Africa. Many studies have pointed out the main factors responsible for this crisis, including poor risk-management practices in the failed banks, the sector’s weak regulatory structure, and the failure of bank supervisors. However, a key factor that has contributed to the extent and speed of the crisis is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy actions, including the elimination of re ...

The current banking crisis in the United States began with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) run in March 2023 and was followed by other bank failures, raising concerns about the health and stability of the financial sector. This Policy Paper traces the root causes of these bank failures and examines the U.S. monetary policy decisions during this period. These bank failures were caused by the poor risk management practices of the failed banks, the sector’s weak regulatory structure, and ...

Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders that the government could run out of cash as early as June 1, if the debt ceiling is not raised in time. In January, the Treasury reached the current legally established ceiling in nominal terms ($31.46 trillion). The funds currently available to make government payment flows tend to exhaust by the end of this month. According to the Treasury Department: “Failing to increase the debt limit would ha ...

La première bipolarisation a appartenu au XX° siècle et opposé États-Unis et URSS. Avec la guerre froide, elle était l'expression de la rivalité entre deux systèmes antagonistes. La seconde est née de la montée de la Chine populaire qui est entrée en compétition avec les États-Unis. Une compétition au départ économique et technologique, devenue aussi, au fil du temps, culturelle et stratégique, dans un monde interdépendant et digitalisé, mais également segmenté, complexe et incertai ...

This paper explores the impact of commodities financialization on crude oil prices and their volatility. While some commodities have been market movers for centuries, introducing others, such as oil, to the financial markets is more recent. The increase in investors' appetite for commodity investing has led to commodities’ financialization, which is often considered an amplifier of commodity price volatility. This paper focuses on the relationship between crude oil prices and the fi ...

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the United States, experienced a bank run in early March 2023, and was closed by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) on March 10. This bank failure, followed by others, creates fear of contagion throughout the U.S. and global banking systems. This Brief identifies four factors leading to the SVB crisis: i) Sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which adversely affected SVB’s income and balance shee ...

The big menacing balloon, about 60 meters in height and an estimated couple thousand pounds, was not carrying extraterrestrials or some exquisite new covid viruses from Wahun, China. A spying monster, as Washington's Secretary of State, Antony Blinken insisted, deployed by Beijing to "attempt to surveil very sensitive military sites" (CNN, February 19, 2023). The balloon, large as roughly three buses, went over several military installations," in some cases loitering", claimed Bli ...

As FBI agent  Charles McGonigal, 54, was used in handcuffs, these metal symbols of repression and the end of freedom. When the former  Special agent in charge( SAC) of the Counter-intelligence Division of the FBIs field office in New York returned from a trip to the Middle East, he suddenly felt the cold iron around his wrists; some of the FBI agents arresting him he certainly knew well-from 1996 until his retirement in 2018 McGonigal specialized in Counterintelligence, organized cr ...

La souveraineté numérique européenne, entendue comme « capacité de l’Europe à agir de façon indépendante dans le monde numérique », a été érigée comme priorité par la Commission d’Ursula Von der Leyen. Du fait de la position privilégiée occupée par les entreprises américaines sur le marché européen, les efforts de Bruxelles en matière de souveraineté numérique sont scrutés de près par les décideurs politiques américains. Ces derniers considèrent souvent les initiatives européennes c ...

This ninth edition of “Atlantic Currents” appears in an international context marked predominantly by a ten month-war between Russia and Nato members that began February 2022. The war is affecting not only the European and American member States directly and actively involved in an unprecedented manner, but more importantly the countries of the global South that have suffered collateral damage. Indeed, the nations of the world were barely out of the most painful and costly phase o ...

En attribuant le prix Nobel d'économie 2022 à Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond et Philip H. Dybvig, le jury Nobel a voulu distinguer des travaux, remontant aux années 1980, qui permettent de mieux comprendre l'implication des banques dans les crises. Travaux pionniers, également, dans l'élaboration d'une théorie bancaire, où l'analyse historique est présente avec Ben S. Bernanke qui a longuement étudié le rôle des banques dans la crise de 1929, afin de ne pas renouveler les erreu ...

Despite the United States' disastrous record in both Iraq and Afghanistan, President Joe Biden is right in asserting that the world faces a confrontation between autocracy and freedom. And that a choice will ultimately have to be made. This makes people cringe, particularly in Europe, which remains polarized on the subject. ...

“Be there “, tweeted the President of the United States, “will be wild”. January, 6, 2021, was     supposed to be a historic day. The members of Congress would certify the electoral vote- declaring Joe Biden, the Democrat as 46th   President. Instead a band playing “God bless America” or “Hail to the Chief”, gunfire was heard and insurgents forcing their way into Congress on Capitol Hill, chanting “ Hang Mike Pence”, the Vice President, who was hiding in an underground garage, prote ...

Le président des États-Unis, Joe Biden, malgré les états de service catastrophiques de son pays en Irak ou en Afghanistan, n’a pas tort d’affirmer que le monde va vers un affrontement entre l’autocratie et la liberté. Et, qu’en fin de compte, il va falloir choisir. Cela fait grincer des dents, surtout en Europe qui est divisée sur le sujet. ...

The Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Alumni (ADEL) Portraits are a series of journalistic insights that delve into the stories and backgrounds of impactful young leaders of the ADEL community, now 350 alumni strong. These portraits are more than a biography as they capture the motives, success stories, career shifts, and vision behind each emerging leader’s pursuit of positive impact. From Morocco to South Africa, Germany to Canada, Brazil and the United States, these young leade ...

In the first half of this year, U.S. stock markets suffered a fall not seen in more than 50 years. The S&P 500 index on Thursday June 30 was more than 20% down compared to January, a drop not experienced since 1970. The S&P 1500 index, built by Bloomberg and incorporating companies of various sizes, has seen more than $9 trillion in stock value disappear since January. Except for energy stocks, all sectors have suffered value reductions. On Wednesday June 29, Citi announced ...

The insurrection of 6 January 2021, when supporters of then President Donald Trump stormed the US Congress in Washington DC, “is widely viewed as a seminal moment in the history of US democracy,” noted the British The Guardian (January 9, 2022). “Never before had the modern nation witnessed such an organized, violent attempt to overthrow the elected government. Never before, not even at the height of the Civil War, had the Confederated flag flown over the halls of Congress.” This w ...

He is 81 years old, and obviously, his job is not joyful. Or, rather some people he is dealing with, are not just angry about him, but outright murderous. Just a few days before Christmas, a man identified as Kuachua Brillion Xiong, was stopped by police on a highway in the state of Iowa, his car loaded with an AR 15 assault rifle, ammunition, and body armor (Des Moines Register, December 30, 2021) The  25-year-old Californian resident was on his way to Washington, DC- to kill Pres ...

Thanks to the positive momentum in transatlantic relations brought about by the arrival of the Biden administration, significant progress is expected on a range of key digital issues. New rules are emerging that are designed to level the playing field for economic actors and ensure the respect of civil liberties, while significant new investments in technological innovation are taking place amid considerable industrial reorganizations. This paper proposes to shed light on seven part ...

Richard Blumenthal, the US Democratic Senator from Connecticut, was shaken by the testimonies of top officials of the Department of Justice during the August 2021 Congressional hearings. The Officials recounted how the former President, Donald Trump, through phone and in private meetings, pressured them to falsify the results of the November 2020 Presidential: "say that the election was corrupt and leave the rest to the congressmen and me". (”Mother Jones”, July 30, 2021) Blumenthal ...

Depuis l’accession au trône du Roi Mohammed VI, l’Afrique s’est transformée en priorité de la diplomatie marocaine. Sur le plan économique, l’Afrique est devenue le prolongement naturel du Maroc en termes d’investissements et d’implantations. Pascal Chaigneau s’attarde sur les relations affaiblies Europe-Afrique, l’ambitieuse relation Chine-Afrique ainsi que les relations entre la Russie, les Etats-Unis, la Turquie ou encore les pays du Golf et l’Afrique. Ce chapitre traite égalemen ...

The Taliban movement took control of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, without confrontation or resistance, as soon as the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. Afghan forces were not able to face the Taliban, despite of the fact that Taliban was technically outnumbered and outgunned by Afghan government forces. The New American administration first priority is to make US military mission in Afghanistan conclude by August 31st. Biden believes that the mission US army in Afghanistan ...

Macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. economy has increasingly become associated with asset price fluctuations in the past few decades. Financial conditions have increasingly become an influential factor shaping the cyclical pace of the macroeconomy. There has been a mismatch between rising financial wealth and the pace of creation and incorporation of new assets. Several secular stagnation hypotheses offer explanations for the insufficient creation of new assets. Public debt—and its p ...