Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
The rebound in oil prices: OPEC “fine tuning” in question
Authors
November 21, 2016

In late September 2016, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) agreement to reduce crude supply was particularly telling. Combined with the improvement of some fundamentals, the agreement in principle created the conditions for a rebound in oil prices. Speculative dynamics to benefit from this upturn are however at work in a market context where production overcapacity remains present. The price recovery remains fragile and a paradigm shift will occur only if OPEC manages to give the agreement an operational scope in the medium term. In addition to (geo)constraints and the strong policies that it implies, it is clear that the task will be a challenge. OPEC should indeed deal with the reality of global supply and engage in a policy of "fine tuning" to keep prices within a fluctuation band for improving the financial situation of its members, without however boosting the production (too much) of other producing countries.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    March 21, 2025
    MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% ...
  • Authors
    March 18, 2025
    Le lithium a vu ses prix s’effondrer au cours des deux dernières années, alors que sa demande devrait fortement croître pour alimenter l’essor programmé des véhicules électriques et des ‘’ clean techs ‘’. Paradoxe ou situation caractéristique des marchés mondiaux de matières où l’instabilité fait loi et où la géostratégie joue pleinement son rôle ? Une analyse des mécanismes à l’œuvre sur le marché de cette ressource stratégique est nécessaire, afin de comprendre la physionomie que ...
  • February 27, 2025
    As countries transition to renewable energy, Latin America and North Africa are emerging as key players in the global supply chain, reshaping alliances and energy routes. In this episode, we explore opportunities for regional cooperation, such as cross-border energy projects, and discus...
  • Authors
    February 26, 2025
    Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean's energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at ris ...
  • February 25, 2025
    شهد المغرب في السنوات الأخيرة اهتمامًا متزايدًا بتطوير الهيدروجين الأخضر، مستفيدًا من موارده الطبيعية وموقعه الاستراتيجي ليصبح فاعلًا رئيسيًا في هذا القطاع الواعد. ومع ذلك، يواجه المشروع تحديات اقتصاد وتقنية تتطلب استراتيجيات فعالة لتعزيز تنافسيته عالميًا. فكيف يمكن للمغرب تحقيق ريادة ف...
  • Authors
    February 19, 2025
    Fidèles à leur histoire jalonnée de crises et d’envolées spectaculaires, les marchés mondiaux de matières premières ont connu des développements contrastés en 2024. L’or, le cuivre, le café ou le cacao ont ainsi atteint des sommets historiques, tandis que le pétrole, le nickel ou le blé ont, parmi tant d’autres produits de base, accusé des baisses d’ampleur variée. Entre une scène géopolitique sous tension en raison de l’aggravation du conflit au Moyen-Orient et de la persistance de ...
  • February 07, 2025
    Water is no longer just a resource—it’s a matter of survival and power. Climate change intensifies water scarcity in the Mediterranean, forcing unexpected cooperation and fueling geopolit ...
  • Authors
    January 31, 2025
    La Chine domine de la tête et des épaules la production mondiale d’aluminium primaire et d’acier brut. Mais ce qui est assurément une force sur les marchés mondiaux des métaux laisse toutefois transparaître un certain nombre de risques, voire de faiblesses, auxquels groupes nationaux et autorités publiques doivent faire face. Derrière ce gigantisme représentatif de la puissance industrielle de la 2ème économie mondiale se cachent en effet une forte exposition à la variabilité de la ...
  • Authors
    January 29, 2025
    While the very reality of the energy transition is sometimes questioned, even challenged (Fressoz, 2023), the carryover effect it creates on mineral resources, highlighted by numerous forward-looking studies, appears indisputable. More copper, lithium, nickel, graphite or rare earths: these are the non-exhaustive conditions that will enable us to support the development of electromobility and renewable energies, and thus contribute to limiting global warming, in line with the commit ...