Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
English version
Le rebond des prix pétroliers : le « fine tuning » de l'OPEP en question
Authors
Yves Jégourel
November 21, 2016
Related topics: 

En actant, fin septembre 2016, qu'il était nécessaire de réduire l'offre de brut, l'Organisation des pays producteurs de pétrole (OPEP) a de toute évidence marqué les esprits. Conjugué à l'amélioration de certains fondamentaux, l'accord de principe ainsi obtenu a créé les conditions d'un rebond des prix pétroliers. Des dynamiques spéculatives visant à tirer profit de cette embellie sont néanmoins à l'œuvre, dans un contexte de marché où les surcapacités de production demeurent présentes. La remontée des cours demeure fragile et ce n'est que si l'OPEP parvient à donner à cet accord une portée opérationnelle sur le moyen terme qu'un changement de paradigme pourra s'effectuer. Outre les contraintes (géo) politiques fortes que cela implique, force est de constater que la tâche sera rude. L'OPEP devra en effet composer avec la réalité de l'offre mondiale et s'engager dans une politique de « fine tuning » visant à maintenir les cours dans une bande de fluctuation permettant d'améliorer la situation financière de ses membres, sans néanmoins (trop) relancer la production des autres pays producteurs.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Annual Report on African Economies 2019
    Authors
    Under the Supervision of
    Larabi Jaïdi
    October 2, 2019
    Africa is an economic region which holds great potential despite the risks associated with its development. Indeed, many experts agree that Africa is emerging as the new frontier for global growth. Boosted by its abundant natural resources, a young and vibrant population, strong urbanization, more stable macroeconomic conditions, more stringent economic policies, a constantly improving business climate and improving governance, Africa is on track for a structural transformation that ...
  • Making Globalization Inclusive: Job Creation and Wage Inequality in Developing Economies
    Authors
    Karim El Aynaoui
    Aomar Ibourk
    Prakash Loungani
    October 1, 2019
    Some of the papers in this special issue were initially presented at a September 2016 conference on Global Labor Markets organized by the IMF, Policy Center for the New South and Brunel University, while others were commissioned through a call for papers. Funding for this initiative was provided in part through the IF-DFID program on Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries. Views expressed in this introduction and in the papers are those of the authors and should not be ascri ...
  • Growth and Jobs in Developing Economies: Trends and Cycles
    Authors
    Zidong An
    Tayeb Ghazi
    Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto
    Aomar Ibourk
    September 30, 2019
    This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and job creation in developing economies with a focus on low and lower middleincome countries along two dimensions: growth patterns and short-run correlations. Analysis on growth patterns shows that regime changes are quite common in both economic growth and employment growth, yet they are not synchronized with each other. Okun’s Law—the short-run relationship between output and labor market—holds in half of the countr ...
  • Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 30, 2019
    Despite some short-term benefits, trade deviation to the region shouldn’t be expected to last. Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America? An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has. But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on gl ...
  • Interview avec Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow , au sujet des inégalités au Maroc
    September 30, 2019
    Notre Senior Fellow a répondu aux questions suivantes : 1/ Dans la région du Moyen-Orient et d’Afrique du Nord, en 2016 la part du revenu global des 1% les plus riches était 2,6 fois plus important que celle des 50% les plus pauvres. Sur quels leviers agir pour réduire les inégalités da...
  • Download PDF
    From Asian Green Revolution 1.0 to Sustainable Green Revolution 2.0
    Authors
    Isabelle Tsakok
    Tharcisse Guedegbe
    September 27, 2019
    This paper is about the basic principles which should guide fertilizer policy for smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa It is not about detailed country-specific prescriptions on the “how” of policy. This important task should constitute the substance of detailed country studies. The overarching goal here is to use fertilizer to spearhead and sustain an African Green Revolution (GR). In this paper, fertilizer use is not considered as an end in itself, but as a necessary mean ...
  • Annual Report on Africa’s Geopolitics 2019
    Authors
    Under the Supervision of
    Abdelhak Bassou
    September 26, 2019
    True to the ambition and spirit of its inaugural edition (2017), then entitled ‘’Mirror of Africa,’’ the «Annual Report on Africa’s Geopolitics», under its new name, explores new horizons, with a view to better grasping the dynamics at play on the continent. This is reflected in particular in the three-part structure of the Report. In Part I (Regions), Africa is broken down into its diverse geographical areas, with a focus on the continent’s various regional economic communities. E ...