Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
French Version
Gold: a safe haven in difficult times
Authors
Henri-Louis Vedie
September 30, 2020
Related topics: 

In recent months, the price of gold has rebounded, taking it to new heights. The analysis of the prices of this precious metal over the last two centuries has shown great stability until 1971, when the United States abandoned gold/dollar convertibility, but also its erratic movement since then. Subject to the laws of the market, the price of this raw material depends essentially on demand. This trend confirms that this asset is a safe haven in difficult times, without however contemplating its re-monetization. This rebound, which is cyclical in nature and occurs in the short and medium term, is a godsend for gold-producing countries, at the forefront of which are China, Russia and Australia, but also some African producers, such as Ghana.

Gold is shining bright, while its prices are at their highest level in history, with an ounce exceeding $2,000. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine and look into the reasons behind this recent price surge, which will enable us to know whether this surge is cyclical or structural, and who are the beneficiaries and victims.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Metals and Oil: A Tale of Two Commodities
    Authors
    Rabah Arezki
    Akito Matsumoto
    September 22, 2015
    “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With these words Charles Dickens opens his novel “A Tale of Two Cities”. Winners and losers in a “tale of two commodities” may one day look back with similar reflections, as prices of metals and oil have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks, months and years. This blog seeks to explain how demand — but also supply and financial market conditions — are affecting metals prices. We will show some contrast with oil, where suppl ...
  • Global Value Chains: The Missing Link in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade Integration
    Authors
    Roger Nord
    September 18, 2015
    Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade flows increased sharply, multiplying by a factor of five over the past 20 years. Is this boom built on commodities only?  My answer is no ! Many countries have increased their integration in global value chains. But, it is also clear that sub-Saharan Africa still has some way to go. Increased trade boosts for growth Over the last two decades, the export-to-GDP ratio in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 20½ percent in 1995 to 27½ percent in 2013. This occ ...
  • Download PDF
    Does Growth Create Jobs in the G-20 Economies?
    Authors
    Saurabh Mishra
    Prakash Loungani
    September 1, 2015
    Les fonds souverains, objet de toutes les attentions au cours des années 2000, devraient voir leur rôle de « stabilisateur » de l’économie se renforcer dans les mois à venir, en raison de la chute du prix des matières premières. Ces véhicules d’investissement doivent cependant être coordonnés avec les outils traditionnels de la politique fiscale et ne peuvent affranchir les pouvoirs publics d’effectuer à plus ou moins long terme les ajustements budgétaires que ce nouvel environnemen ...
  • Download PDF
    A chequered African history of commodity markets, part one: bauxite and aluminium
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    August 28, 2015
    The African endowment in mineral resources is well known and has often been a mixed blessing, according to the socalled “natural resources curse”. Bauxite, an ore that serves as a feedstock for aluminium production, is particularly present in Guinean soil but, notwithstanding its efforts to do so, this country has not yet succeeded in transforming this red treasure into a real source of social and economic development. Despite the difficult economic context and a long road ahead, th ...
  • Download PDF
    Should we worry about the Great Trade Slowdown?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    August 25, 2015
    Struggling with slow growth, many countries (advanced and developing), have allowed their currencies to slide against the U.S. dollar. Until recently, China stood out in resisting this trend, and indeed had seen a large appreciation against the US dollar over several years. So many saw its abrupt change of course not only as signaling deep trouble in China but also as opening the door to a bout of destabilizing currency competition. These troubling developments raise two important q ...
  • Atlantic Strategy Group : Summary Discussion
    August 18, 2015
    OCP Policy Center and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in partnership with the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Institute, organized an Atlantic Strategy Group conference on June 23rd and 24th, 2015 in São Paulo, Brazil with a focus on trade, energy, food, and Geopolitical System...
  • Download PDF
    The Transformational Role of Technology in the Atlantic Basin
    Authors
    Guillame Xavier-Bender
    August 10, 2015
    This brief seeks to look into how innovation ecosystems in the Atlantic Basin may affect public policymaking, economic development, and the future of commercial and social interactions. It looks more specifically at enabling technologies, which generate networks and increase connectivity. It also explores the transformational role these technologies play on the evolution of strategic industries in the Atlantic. The digital revolution’s full potential indeed lies in its capacity to s ...