Publications /
Opinion

Back
A New World Order with Chinese Characteristics
June 20, 2019

The world is navigating through turbulent waters, witnessing one the most significant transitions ever in its history. With the ascension of China and the steady decline of the United States, there is a general sense of insecurity and fear about the future and the unknown. Change is never a comfortable period due to the turmoil it frequently generates. The relationship between the United States and China will never be the same, but it will not end up in war, as some expect. China is not Russia. The Cold War ended in 1989, despite some still profiting from it.

The troubled relationship is not Donald Trump’s fault or making. It would happen anyway, as China returns to its historical position as the world’s largest economy and today’s most industrialised country. The new normal is a continuous, conflictive relationship between the two world powers. Both have enormous disparities: their economic and political models are different, and so is their social fabric. Their perspectives on the world and its future are also apart. China, on the one hand, is seeking to attain prominence and relevance. The United States, on the other, is seeking to maintain the status quo. Usually, those seeking to attain something tend to be much more engaged and willing to take risks than those who want to preserve things as they are.

The new reality is that the world has changed, and tectonic shifts in global power have happened quietly until recently. In this new world order under construction, the scenario seems to include the following aspects:

1- The United Nations system plus the World Trade Organisation have become steadily less relevant. Though having generated substantial benefits for humankind, there is a widespread perception and sense that some of those organisations have worked mostly in favour and on behalf of the II World War winners, particularly the United States. Their lack of reform in governance has proven to be their Achilles’ heel and the most conclusive evidence of what their purposes are.

2- The United States dollar, which has been the world’s reserve currency, will steadily be replaced by the Renminbi (RMB). The dollar dominance of the international system has provided the United States enormous prosperity and access to cheaper goods and services. Since dollars can only be obtained through investments (which is much rarer) or trade surpluses, countries have been forced to support much of the prosperity and welfare existing in the United States by devaluing their currencies and the cost of their products.

3- Military power – once the critical factor of hard power – will remain essential but less relevant, since the ascension of cyberwar and new technologies are slowly redrawing the role of military power and have acted as significant levellers in global power. Military expenses have barred the United States from investing more in its technological growth and internal infrastructure, with a decreasing spill-over of the results from the military expenditure.

4- Deindustrialisation is a given and a new reality. China has become the world's global factory due to the smart use of its workforce – its most widely available commodity – together with high savings rate, growing investment in education and – most importantly – since countries did not do their homework to remain competitive.

Thus, the new world order with Chinese characteristics will present an economic and political matrix that will slowly replace many of the tenets of the current liberal order. In this new world order, there are a few factors to consider:

1- Economic power prevails over military power. China will not be the world’s leading military power or its policeman. China faces constraints resulting from a very complicated neighbourhood where any significant movement could spark an arms race. With four (4) nuclearised neighbours – India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia – in addition to South Korea and Japan, which mirror the presence of the United States in Asia, the situation itself forces China to be very careful on the perception of its use of military force.

2- Technology will be the leading force of growth, development and alliances. With the Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G technological dominance, China will be able to enhance its global presence, reap the benefits deriving from its first-mover advantage and set up the standards of the fourth industrial revolution.

3- The world order will be based less on preaching and more on pragmatism. The issue that the United States led by its moral compass, while creating much of the growth and development of the last 70 years, has also significantly been criticised as hypocritical. Most of the regions of the world – though still recognising the vital role of the United States – have examples of situations where the preaching did not truly meet the actions, which has led to grievances and extreme discomfort. The same can be said about the European Union, which will remain a relevant yet secondary player in the new world order.  

4- Another issue to remember is what political system is the best fit to deliver results and lead to the prosperity of the citizenry. Everywhere one looks, representative democracy is in a crisis, and the ascension of populism in some countries is nothing but the evidence that symptoms of failure are much more profound than ever thought. Democracies have become used to the perspective of electing and immediately regretting from their voting, a real sense of buyer’s remorse whenever an electoral cycle comes to an end. This feeling of stagnation and discontent with the way democracies – and their corresponding establishment elites – have operated show a complete divorce from the definition of democracy itself – the government of the people, for the people and by the people. The real questions have become: where are "the people" in democracies and who are “those people” leading governments?

Emerging countries should pay close attention to the winds of change and alter their course to meet these new challenges. The Belt and Road Initiative, launched by the Chinese government, can provide some hints about the way China envisions the world functioning in the future. In this future, there is no hard or soft power. What matters is power. Thus, considering that the rise of China is not a wave but indeed a tsunami, there are three things such emerging countries should consider:

  1. Add value whenever and wherever it can, get rid of restrictions that bar growth and deregulate to let the market forces operate in full force and to the best of their ability, with a long term strategy and perspective on how to reassert itself globally.
  2. Choose the side where there is more potential to grow and negotiate well the terms of support. History has taught that in the field of International Relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, just interests.
  3. Do whatever is necessary to be in the room of global negotiations. If one is not in the room choosing the menu, one will be part of the menu. Countries should be able to learn from the past, take full advantage of the present and not waste time, efforts or talent in useless pursuits. Competitiveness is the name of the game, and China teaches that there is not much room for mistakes.

Though challenging, the prospects for the new world order are positive. A new Age is starting. Undoubtedly, historians will point to the creation of the Internet as the beginning of this new chapter of human history and China as the driving force of this new age. The future looks bright.

 

The opinions expressed in this blog post are the views of the author.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    منى فياض
    May 21, 2020
    تم نشر هذا المقال في الأصل على موقع قناة الحرة يقول یووال نوح هراري إن نمو الذكاء الاصطناعي والتقنيات البيولوجية قد يؤدي إلى إنتاج طبقة من "رجال متفوقين" يحكمون العالم ويحولون باقي البشر إلى "طبقة غير نافعة" (كتاب 21 مسألة للقرن الـ 21). كما تنبأ بأن التقدم العلمي سوف يولد لامساواة غير مسبوقة في التاريخ داخل المجتمعات، لكن أيضا بين الأمم. سوف تزداد الهوة بين البلدان الصناعية التي تسيطر على التكنولوجيا وتلك المحرومة منها، بل سوف لن تردم لاحقا. لاحقا، جاء تصريح الرئيس الروسي فلاديم ...
  • Authors
    April 29, 2020
    Kim Jong-un, the dictator of North Korea, disappeared from public view after an appearance at a Workers' Party politburo meeting on April 11. The unpredictable leader did not appear to celebrate the anniversary of his grandfather’s birthday four days later, an important holiday for the nation. Then Mr Kim missed Military Foundation Day, on which he usually honors the military, the foundation of his absolute power. Rumors began to spread. The dictator was gravely ill, possibly dying. ...
  • Authors
    April 9, 2020
    Our Senior Fellow, Len Ishmael has contributed to the Quarterly Journal by Beyond the Horizon ISSG (Volume 3 Issue 1), under the theme « Influencing and Promoting Global Peace and Security Horizon Insights », with a Policy Paper where she addresses China’s use of crises to « deepen and extend power and influence in Europe and the world ». Standing in solidarity with countries in Europe and elsewhere in the fight against COVID-19, China scores a diplomatic coup and extends its claim ...
  • February 20, 2020
    Le lancement et la conduite de toute négociation ne dépendent pas seulement des positions des parties, de leur volonté de faire des concessions et, éventuellement, du talent du médiateur. De la même manière qu’ils ne dépendent pas, uniquement, du règlement des questions de procédure et de l’adoption d’arrangements techniques destinés à contourner les objections préalables des parties, à ménager leurs sensibilités et à leur faire accepter un code de conduite adapté à chaque phase des ...
  • Authors
    Hajar El Alaoui
    January 16, 2020
    Les investissements japonais en Afrique sont en plein essor. Ils sont passés de 758 millions de dollars, en 2000, à 7,8 milliards en 2017, fruit de la présence sur le continent de près de 796 entreprises nippones. Troisième puissance économique et deuxième puissance industrielle mondiale, après la Chine et les Etats-Unis, le Japon est le cinquième donateur mondial en matière d’aide bilatérale à l’Afrique. Malgré sa discrétion et la compétition des autres puissances étrangères présen ...
  • Authors
    January 15, 2020
    “The Nightmare we feared has arrived” Death was late because the departure time of the plane was delayed. But death arrived- six minutes after takeoff from Tehran’s “Imam Khomeini International Airport. It was still dark, 6.12 hours’ local time, when flight 752 of “Ukraine International Airlines” took course toward Kyiv, the Ukraine capital three hours and fourty two minutes away. The Boeing 737 800 NG had reached 2400 meters, when the American military’s “Space Based Infrared Syst ...
  • Authors
    Osama El Mourabit
    November 29, 2019
    During the past few years, the different global ongoing events have left us baffled and astonished. Given the decreasing ability to understand and assimilate the amount of changes, mutations, and crises, one would wonder: what happened to the global order? How has -in this short period of time- the power of its values and institutions that much decreased? What are the causes for these protectionist and massive populist waves? Why are we witnessing an increasing settlement of conflic ...
  • Authors
    Samuel Arnaud
    October 28, 2019
    Africa, as a continent of economic opportunities, is attracting foreign players. In this context, India is emerging as an important partner, especially for Eastern and Southern Africa. The complexity of its geopolitical environment combined with internal specificities motivated the revival of interest for the continent. This paper draws on historical developments between India and African countries to provide the state of play of recent linkages. Those trends are better perceived th ...
  • Authors
    Mehmet Öğütçü
    October 21, 2019
    Decades of rapid economic growth have dramatically expanded China’s energy needs. The magnitudes are impressive. China is now the world’s largest consumer of energy, the largest producer and consumer of coal, and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. It is increasingly looking toward securing its future energy needs with sustainable alternatives. China has also become the world’s largest producer, exporter and installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles, ...
  • Authors
    October 4, 2019
    Massive and sometimes violent protests have been setting the pace in Hong Kong for over 100 days. Demonstrators have put forward five demands, amongst which a democratic system of local rule, not controlled by Beijing.  Below is an international press review of the Hong Kong political crisis by Helmut Sorge, former Foreign editor, and Middle East expert for Germany's leading newsmagazine "Der Spiegel", and columnist at the Policy Center for the New South.    Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kon ...