حديث الثلاثاء : هل عادت القطبية الثنائية الدولية؟

June 13, 2023

 

سنحاول في هذه الحلقة الوقوف عند إحداثيات وتداعيات عودة هيمنة القطبية الثنائية على المشهد الدولي، بعد نحو 3 عقود من أفولها إثر انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في عام 1991، واحتدام الاستقطاب على وقع الأزمة الأوكرانية الذي يهدد عمل المنظمات الدولية وسط تصاعد دعوات إصلاح منظومة الأمم المتحدة بشكل يسع ويواكب الديناميات الجديدة للعلاقات الدولية. ما الذي يعنيه الاتجاه نحو الاستقطاب ثنائي القطب في العالم بعد أن شهدنا تجربة سابقة لاستقطاب مترابط يتميز بتداخل مجموعة من المكونات الاقتصادية والسياسية والاستراتيجية والثقافية المختلفة لقوتين عالميتين؟ كيف يمكن شرح أسباب اختفاء الاستقطاب الثنائي الأول بين الاتحاد السوفياتي والولايات المتحدة الامريكية وبروز الاستقطاب الثنائي الثاني بين الولايات المتحدة والصين؟ ما مستقبل الصين في العقود القادمة؟ هل سنشهد تصاعد التوترات بين قوتي هذا القطب في هذا القرن؟ أم ستتقدم الصين وتصبح القوة الأولى عالميًا؟ أم سنشهد تطورًا نحو استقطاب متعدد الأقطاب يسعى إلى إقرار التوازن في المجتمع الدولي بدوله ومنظماته؟

Speakers
Imane Lahrich
Head – Research Valorization
Imane Lahrich is the Head of Research Valorization Department, having previously served as a Partnerships & Research Support Officer at the Policy Center for the New South since 2019. She mainly worked on security-development related projects. She has experience as a Project Manager in a Strategic Intelligence firm (2017-2019) and as a research consultant in the MENA region, focusing on international development and the Rule of Law. Imane Lahrich holds a Master's in Political Studies and a Bachelor's in Political Science from Mohammed V University of Rabat. She also participated in a one-year exchange program at Masaryk University in the Czech Republic under the EMMAG MUNDUS Excellence scholarship.     ...
Fathallah Oualalou
Senior Fellow
Fathallah Oualalou is an economist, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South.  He obtained his PhD in economics from the University of Paris in 1968. Prior to joining the Policy Center for the New South, he served as a professor at Mohammed V University in Rabat and other higher education institutions in Morocco, and as an associate professor at several foreign universities. He is the author of numerous books and articles in the fields of economic theory, financial economics, international economic relations, the economies of Maghreb countries, the Arab world, and the Euro-Mediterranean area. In addition, he was the president of the Association of Moroccan Economists at the Union of Arab Economists. His political activism began with the creation, in the 1960s, of ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    October 16, 2020
    Whether President Trump is reelected or not, the United States will, sooner or later, revert to a traditonalist foreign policy of openness and alliances. If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump on November 3, as he is expected to do, the United States will return to a traditionalist brand of foreign policy: one of openness, support for multilateralism, and constructive engagement with allies. But even if Biden doesn’t winwhich is possible—and four more years of Trump’s America First polici ...
  • Authors
    September 28, 2020
    Bank robbers are now and then caught because banks, insurance companies, or robbed personalities promise rewards for the arrest of criminals. In the past, Hollywood took the lead in dreaming up such scenarios. But in early August, the U.S. State Department offered a $10 million reward for information leading “to the identification or location of any person, who works with or for a foreign government for the purpose of interfering with U.S. elections through certain illegal cyber act ...
  • Authors
    June 26, 2020
    At the beginning of June, officers from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, usually active on America’s periphery, were deployed to Washington D.C., where President Donald Trump had sighted an internal threat posed by “anarchists, agitators, looters, or lowlifes”. In reality, American citizens were protesting, mostly peacefully, against police brutality, and the killings of African-Americans by cops. Nevertheless, the urban revolt seemed grave enough for the Trump Administration to ...
  • Authors
    June 12, 2020
    The United States has suffered more COVID-19 casualties than any other country and continues to report large numbers of new cases and deaths, and – as evident recently in stock markets – investors remain extremely sensitive to the epidemic’s shifting trends. As every state reopens, including most recently the New York epicenter, the fates of the American economy and of the global economy depend on whether the United States has put the worst of the epidemic behind it, or whether it w ...
  • Authors
    May 27, 2020
    Les tensions dans les relations entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine sont un sujet de préoccupation pour le monde. En dépit des quelques ouvertures éphémères, qui donnent parfois espoir à la détente, la tendance de ces derniers temps est plutôt vers l’escalade. Il ne se passe pas un mois, voire une semaine sans qu’actions, déclarations ou positions de l’un des deux pays contre l’autre ne fasse la Une de l’actualité. Des incidents les plus dangereux en Mer de Chine méridionale, aux mesur ...
  • Authors
    May 22, 2020
    On February 3, 2003, Colin Powell, U.S. President George Bush’s Secretary of State, informed the United Nations Security Council about secret information collected by the U.S. about Iraq’s weapons of mass destructions. “Every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions,” he said. There was “no doubt in my mind” that Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapons program, and the invasion of Iraq was urgent and justified, because “the gravity of this ...
  • January 17, 2020
    The drone strike that claimed the life of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani unmasks the limits of so-called "hybrid" – or "asymmetric" – strategies. These low-intensity military operations, conducted through unofficial paramilitary forces, are supposed to allow a weaker state to gain geopolitical advantages without risking an open war with a stronger one. The idea is to gradually accumulate small tactical victories by capitalizing on more powerful states’ lack of appetite for distant ...
  • Authors
    June 21, 2019
    The New York Times reported this morning that after the shot down of an U.S. drone by Iranian forces, President Trump ordered military retaliation, but called it off in the early phase. Below is a facts' review through the international press perspectives. “You are pushing everyone towards a confrontation” Unusually, the satellite images were not presented to the media. Possibly, the photos were taken from a submarine, or there was fear that the enemy could figure out who and how ...