Otaviano Canuto on Bloated Central Bank Balance Sheets

April 14, 2021

When the global financial crisis hit the international economy in 2008, central banks in major advanced economies widened their range of monetary policy instruments, increasingly resorting to unconventional tools. Initially to avoid a deepening of the financial destabilization and bankruptcy of solvent-but-illiquid private sector balance sheets, as it happened during the Great Depression of the 30s in the last century. Subsequently to fight economic stagnation and deflation risks as private agents deleveraged. While the “liability-driven” initial phase can be seen as “quantitative stabilizing”, the later “asset-driven” balance sheet expansion is the true “quantitative easing”. There are good reasons to believe that there will be no return to the pre-QE configuration of balance sheets. First, the increasing global financial integration in the last few decades has imposed increasing challenges in terms of making liquidity management effective as cross-border volumes of capital flows have expanded significantly. Second, changes to financial regulation have induced private agents to alter their behavior and strategies. Finally, a new task has come under the purview of central banks: monitoring relationships between various benchmark curves—i.e., operating as quasi-market makers. As a spill-over from abroad, central bank balance sheets in some emerging market economies also bloated. The era of bloated central bank balance sheets seems to be a component of the “new normal”, even if they undergo some diet in the future.

Speakers
Otaviano Canuto
Senior Fellow
Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, principal at Center for Macroeconomics and Development and non-resident fellow at Brookings Institute. Former Vice President and Executive Director at the World Bank, Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Vice President at the Inter-American Development Bank. He was also Deputy Minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, as well as professor of economics at University of São Paulo (USP) and University of Campinas (UNICAMP). ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    April 6, 2020
    The global reach of COVID-19 is now clear. In a short time, country after country has suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each facing a three-fold shock: epidemiologic, economic, and financial. In addition to dealing with their own local coronavirus outbreaks, emerging market and developing countries have faced additional shocks from abroad. Flattening pandemic curves saves lives The coronavirus crisis is primarily a public health issue, demanding containment policies ...
  • Authors
    Mouhamadou Moustapha Ly
    April 6, 2020
    Covid-19 has a far-reaching impact and is imposing a slowdown on the world economy, raising fears of the worst consequences on production, jobs and the immediate future of developing economies. Fiscal and monetary authorities around the world are engaging in policies to support their economies with unprecedented funds and initiatives. The African continent, also affected by the pandemic, is pursuing courageous economic (fiscal and monetary) policies, but the main question is what ne ...
  • Authors
    April 3, 2020
    His delicate, almost floating touches created a hitherto unseen aesthetic perfection: the enigmatic face the Mona Lisa. The mysterious woman, captured on a panel of poplar wood, is the work of a genius, possibly one of the greatest minds in human history: Leonardo da Vinci. But Da Vinci also had another obsession: the art of war. In a letter to the court of Ludovico Sforza, then ruler of Milan, the celebrated maestro wrote, “I will make covered vehicles, safe and unassailable which ...
  • Authors
    April 3, 2020
    La crise engendrée par le COVID-19 a bouleversé l’ordre de l’économie mondiale. Elle montre à quel point les économies sont très interdépendantes, vulnérables et ne sont pas préparées à faire face à un choc sanitaire de cette ampleur. Même les pays développés et les grandes puissances économiques mondiales en ont été très négativement impactés. Cependant, l’impact de cette pandémie est à géométrie variable et son issue dépendra de la capacité des Etats à réagir et à y faire face le ...
  • Authors
    Amanda O. Mathe
    April 3, 2020
    The Mara Group, producer of the Mara smartphone, has set up manufacturing facilities in two key strategic countries, Rwanda and South Africa, with a total estimated investment of $100 million. On the back of political shifts in South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa embarked on an investment drive, announced in his state of the nation address in 2018. This was followed up with an investment conference, at which Ashish Thakkar, CEO of Mara Group, announced a $100 million investment ...
  • Authors
    April 3, 2020
    Using a Structural vector auto-regression analysis, this paper attempts to answer the question of the feasibility of a currency union in the Economic community of West African states (ECOWAS). The study focuses on a particular criterion of the theory of optimum currency area (OCA) i.e. the similarity of business cycles. The main results suggest important discrepancies between countries that are already within the WAEMU (CFA Franc) arrangement and countries that have their own arrang ...
  • Authors
    Youssef El Jai
    April 1, 2020
    « Economists have a bad track record in predictions, so I will not try my hand at predicting the effect of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the global financial system or the global economy. » Thorsten Beck */ /*-->*/ /*-->*/ Comme le dit si bien Thorsten Beck, il serait illusoire de prévoir à ce stade, compte tenu de l’information disponible, un impact chiffré de la crise sur l’économie. A l’issue de son Conseil du17 mars 2020, Bank Al-Maghrib a annoncé une baisse du taux d ...
  • Authors
    Carolina Zuheill Rosales
    April 1, 2020
    The Multidimensional Poverty Index provided for the UNDP (United Nations Developed Program) looks beyond monetary income and shows how poverty is the experience of multiple and simultaneous deprivations. People can fall behind in terms of health, education, and living standards, with challenges including lack of access to drinking water, sanitation, adequate nutrition, or primary education. Those who are deprived of at least one third of the index’s components are classified as mult ...
  • March 31, 2020
    The COVID-19 disease, caused by the novel coronavirus, is the most serious health crisis since the Spanish flu of 1918, which is estimated to have killed between 50 million and 100 million people worldwide. By the latest count (March 29), the disease had spread to over 177 countries, with more than 630,000 cases reported and 30,000 recorded deaths. These numbers are increasing exponentially at present and the cases and deaths reported are both believed to be undercounted. Deaths are ...
  • Authors
    Seleman Kitenge
    March 30, 2020
    Illicit financial flows (IFFs) have become a serious threat to the attainment of global development goals. On February 28th, 2020, the President of the United Nations General Assembly, Tijjani Muhammad-Bande, and the President of ECOSOC, Mona Juul, have announced a high-level panel on international financial accountability, transparency, and integrity (FACTI) as a means to address this challenge, which inhibits financing for the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper provides an ...