Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
English version
Matières premières: une nouvelle ère
Authors
Yves Jégourel
December 14, 2015
Related topics: 
Commodities & Energy
Natural Resources

La fin des stratégies d’intégration verticale constitue le corollaire naturel de la baisse durable du prix de la quasi-totalité des produits de base observée depuis de nombreux mois. S’il apparait encore prématuré d’affirmer avec précision quelles seront les conséquences de cette déconsolidation dans la chaine de valeur des matières premières, il est cependant probable que le rôle stratégique du négoce physique se renforce. Sous une telle hypothèse, les stratégies industrielles des pays en développement et exportateurs de produits de base pourraient devoir muter et désormais favoriser en priorité l’optimisation des circuits de distribution internationaux et la gestion du risque de prix.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    New and Emerging LNG Markets: The Demand Shock
    Authors
    Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe
    June 30, 2018
    Over the past decade, an increasing number of emerging markets has joined the liquefied natural gas (LNG) import club. From 7 countries in 2010, they were 17 in 2017: from traditionally export-oriented regions (such as the Middle East and North Africa) facing burgeoning gas and electricity demand, from emerging economies with growing energy needs (Southeast Asia), from countries facing severe energy and gas shortages and willing to replace imported oil in power generation (South Asi ...
  • Download PDF
    Oil Exploration and Production in Africa since 2014 Evolution of the Key Players and their Strategies
    Authors
    Benjamin Augé
    May 23, 2018
    The fall in oil prices, which began in fall 2014, had a significant influence on the strategies of the key players in the oil industry in Africa. The continent’s oil sector has experienced deep-reaching changes, ranging from a drop in exploration budgets, the disappearance or sale of weakened companies, the reorganization or pullback of the traditional oil majors, the establishment of new companies and the arrival of state-owned companies attracted by the crisis-induced windfall eff ...
  • Download PDF
    Water Content in Trade: A Regional Analysis for Morocco
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
    Vinicius A. Vale
    April 26, 2018
    This paper reports the results of an application using an interregional input-output matrix for Morocco together with regional information on water consumption by sectors. We develop a trade-based index that reveals the relative water use intensities associated with specific interregional and international trade flows. We estimate, for each flow associated with each origin-destination pair, measures of trade in value added and trade in water that are further used to calculate our in ...
  • La Chine, le pétrole et les marchés dérivés de matières premières
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    April 10, 2018
    Le lancement d’un contrat à terme pétrolier sur le Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) ne saurait être vu comme un évènement « technique » ou secondaire tant il préfigure ce que seront dans quelques années les marchés mondiaux de matières premières. Le Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) et le Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ont certes vu leurs volumes de trading augmenter considérablement sur la dernière décennie grâce à l’acier et au minerai de fer, ce qui pourrait laisser à ...
  • U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs: how should the EU respond?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    March 15, 2018
    President Trump’s proclamation that, because of national security concerns, he will apply a 25% tariff on all steel and a 10% tariff on all aluminium imports into the United States – except provisionally and dependent on NAFTA negotiations those from Canada and Mexico – affects, respectively 5.1 billion Euros and 1.1 billion Euros of EU exports. These are not trivial sums. However, the invocation of the national security exception in this case has implications that go far beyond nar ...
  • The Financialization of Commodity Markets: A Short-lived Phenomenon?
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    March 14, 2018
    Commodities are at the very heart of economic activity. From oil to wheat, from aluminum to coffee or rubber, we are all, in one way or another and to varying degrees, dependent on commodities. Different in terms of their physical properties but governed by common economic mechanisms, traded on global and oligopolistic markets, subject to intense competitive pressures and speculative bets, often marked by highly volatile prices, objects of geopolitical rivalries or cooperatives stra ...
  • Download PDF
    Too high, too fast, too loud? Questioning the soaring prices of minerals and metals
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    October 18, 2017
    The prices of metals -most notably industrial metals- have risen significantly since January 2016, in contrast with 2014 and 2015, which were difficult years. This trend is due to substantial improvements in market fundamentals, both for demand and supply. However, the importance of speculative movements underlying this sharp rise in prices cannot be minimized or omitted. In the short term, it poses the risk of a correction linked to profit taking and a return to greater rationality ...
  • Download PDF
    Trop haut, trop vite, trop fort ? L’envolée du prix des minerais et des métaux en question
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    October 18, 2017
    Les cours des métaux, industriels notamment, se sont inscrits dans un mouvement haussier particulièrement marqué depuis janvier 2016 qui tranche avec les années difficiles de 2014 et 2015. À l’origine de cette dynamique : une sensible amélioration des fondamentaux du marché, tant du côté de la demande que de l’offre. L’importance des mouvements spéculatifs qui sous-tendent cette forte remontée des cours ne peut cependant être oubliée voire minimisée. Elle pose à court terme le risqu ...
  • Download PDF
    Morocco’s Water Security : Productivity, Efficiency, Integrity
    Authors
    Prepared by Global Nexus
    October 13, 2017
    Since inception nearly a century ago, corporations and industries have coevolved with Morocco’s legacy of peace and prosperity. With a growing pressure on agricultural production and natural resources, exacerbated with climate change, there is urgency to define sustainable strategies that would reassure corporations and industries for longterm prosperity and for a healthy economy. Studies have highlighted the perilous state of our natural environment, the exhaustion of our aquifers, ...
  • Download PDF
    Trends and cyclicality of commodity prices (Part 1): debating the Prebisch- Singer hypothesis
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    October 3, 2017
    Dealing with the dynamics of commodity prices requires the characterization of three phenomena to which they are subject: (very) long-term trends, medium / long-term cycles and short-term variability / volatility (Jacks, 2013). As they strongly infuence the economies of exporting countries, each of these phenomena calls for the implementation of specifc strategies, particularly in terms of public policies. Thus, whereas volatility raises the question of availability of hedging tools ...