Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
French Version
Gold: a safe haven in difficult times
Authors
Henri-Louis Vedie
September 30, 2020
Related topics: 

In recent months, the price of gold has rebounded, taking it to new heights. The analysis of the prices of this precious metal over the last two centuries has shown great stability until 1971, when the United States abandoned gold/dollar convertibility, but also its erratic movement since then. Subject to the laws of the market, the price of this raw material depends essentially on demand. This trend confirms that this asset is a safe haven in difficult times, without however contemplating its re-monetization. This rebound, which is cyclical in nature and occurs in the short and medium term, is a godsend for gold-producing countries, at the forefront of which are China, Russia and Australia, but also some African producers, such as Ghana.

Gold is shining bright, while its prices are at their highest level in history, with an ounce exceeding $2,000. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine and look into the reasons behind this recent price surge, which will enable us to know whether this surge is cyclical or structural, and who are the beneficiaries and victims.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 1) : le débat sur l’hypothèse de Prebisch-Singer
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    October 3, 2017
    Traiter de la dynamique du prix des matières premières impose de caractériser trois phénomènes auxquels ils sont soumis : les tendances de (très) long terme, les cycles de moyen/long terme et la variabilité/volatilité à court terme (Jacks, 2013). Influençant fortement les économies des pays exportateurs, chacun d’entre eux appelle à la mise en œuvre de stratégies spécifiques, notamment en termes de politiques publiques. Ainsi, alors que la volatilité interroge sur la disponibilité d ...
  • Download PDF
    Trends and cyclicality of commodity prices (Part 1): debating the Prebisch- Singer hypothesis
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    October 3, 2017
    Dealing with the dynamics of commodity prices requires the characterization of three phenomena to which they are subject: (very) long-term trends, medium / long-term cycles and short-term variability / volatility (Jacks, 2013). As they strongly infuence the economies of exporting countries, each of these phenomena calls for the implementation of specifc strategies, particularly in terms of public policies. Thus, whereas volatility raises the question of availability of hedging tools ...
  • Download PDF
    China’s Expanding Energy and Geopolitical Linkages with Central Asia and Russia: Implications for Businesses and Governments
    Authors
    Can ÖĞÜTÇÜ
    Mehmet ÖĞÜTÇÜ
    September 29, 2017
    This paper discusses the expanding links between China, Central Asia and Russia over the past quarter a century, most recently via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in geopolitics and trade/ investment, as well connections in oil, gas and electricity. These links that continue to expand are likely to change the current economic, political and energy landscape beyond recognition. They are forging mutual economics dependencies and reducing security risks. The paper also assesses wh ...
  • Download PDF
    La complexité de la remontée des Chaînes de valeur Mondiales : Cas des industries automobile et aéronautique au Maroc et en Tunisie
    Authors
    Larabi Jaïdi
    Yassine Msadfa
    September 21, 2017
    Les chaînes de valeur mondiales offrent de nouvelles opportunités de transformation structurelle pour les pays en développement. Aujourd’hui la vision des chaînes de valeur mondiales se limitant à l’analyse des flux commerciaux et des IDE à l’échelle globale n’est plus suffisante pour répondre aux questions clés du positionnement et de la remontée dans ces chaînes de valeur, de la dynamique de la capture de la valeur et de sa pérennisation. La réponse à ces questions appelle un écla ...
  • Méthodes mathématiques avancées pour l’analyse économique
    Authors
    Lahcen Oulhaj
    September 20, 2017
    Le présent livre présente un ensemble d’outils et de notions mathématiques communément utilisés en économie appliquée. Il commence par rappeler les notions d’algèbre matricielle, et enchaîne avec l’étude des systèmes linéaires d’équations et les transformations de matrices, pour traiter de la décomposition des matrices, devenue un outil couramment utilisé en économétrie des séries chronologiques et des données de panel. Le calcul différentiel et intégral, de plus en plus utilisé en ...
  • Accessibility, transportation cost, and regional growth: a case study for Egypt
    Authors
    Eduardo Amaral Haddad
    Dina N. Elshahawany
    Michael L. Lahr
    September 18, 2017
    This paper focuses on a proposed development corridor in Egypt, a main component of which is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. The main beneficial features of this proposed transport investment are travel time reductions and improved accessibility. We use a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model to estimate the economic impacts of changes in transportation costs from this new roadway. To effect this, we integrate the model with a stylized geo-code ...
  • Download PDF
    Les fonds souverains africains
    Authors
    Henri-Louis Vedie
    September 17, 2017
    Les fonds souverains africains sont pour certains d’entre eux des fonds anciens, comme le Pula Fund du Botswana créé en 1994, d’autres fonds vont suivre, dont les plus importants en actifs sous gestion sont les fonds algériens et libyens. Et si la majeure partie d’entre eux, huit sur les onze analysés ici, sont financés par des recettes provenant d’hydrocarbures, tel n’est pas le cas du fonds botswanais (diamant), du fonds sénégalais (actifs transférés de l’état) et du der ...
  • The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalization
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 15, 2017
    After a strong rising tide starting in the 1990s, financial globalization seems to have reached a plateau since the global financial crisis. However, that apparent stability has taken place along a deep reshaping of cross-border financial flows, featuring de-banking and an increasing weight of non-banking financial cross-border transactions. Sources of potential instability and long-term funding challenges have morphed accordingly.      Financial globalization is morphing after its ...
  • Download PDF
    Manufacturing Employment Elasticity and Its Drivers in Developing and Emerging Countries : Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa
    Authors
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    Tayeb Ghazi
    Yassine Msadfa
    September 8, 2017
    The aim of this work is to contribute to the empirical literature on employment-GDP elasticities in four main ways. First, it provides a set of employment-GDP elasticities for a sample of emerging and developing economies, including 11 sub-Saharan countries, based on the GGDC 10-sectors database. Second, it assesses the extent to which manufacturing activities are inclusive compared to the rest of the economy, in terms of employment creation. Third, it explores the determinants of c ...
  • India – Morocco Ties: Looking at Cooperation from an Agricultural Perspective
    Authors
    Ihssane Guennoun
    September 4, 2017
    India and Morocco have enjoyed a steady and fruitful relationship that continues to grow thanks to the trade opportunities between both countries. Indeed, the various agreements between India and Morocco yielded effective results for both countries who set a model of South-South cooperation that is also a win-win partnership.  Both countries share many common challenges as both are middle income countries. They have been enjoying sustained economic growth in the past two decades. O ...