Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Gold: a safe haven in difficult times
September 30, 2020

In recent months, the price of gold has rebounded, taking it to new heights. The analysis of the prices of this precious metal over the last two centuries has shown great stability until 1971, when the United States abandoned gold/dollar convertibility, but also its erratic movement since then. Subject to the laws of the market, the price of this raw material depends essentially on demand. This trend confirms that this asset is a safe haven in difficult times, without however contemplating its re-monetization. This rebound, which is cyclical in nature and occurs in the short and medium term, is a godsend for gold-producing countries, at the forefront of which are China, Russia and Australia, but also some African producers, such as Ghana.

Gold is shining bright, while its prices are at their highest level in history, with an ounce exceeding $2,000. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine and look into the reasons behind this recent price surge, which will enable us to know whether this surge is cyclical or structural, and who are the beneficiaries and victims.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    November 1, 2019
    Dans la nuit du samedi 26, Donald Trump, comme à son habitude, lance un tweet quelque peu énigmatique :  ‘’Quelque chose d’énorme vient de se passer’’. Le porte-parole de la Maison Blanche renforce la devinette, en déclarant que le président ‘’fera, le dimanche 27 octobre à 9h, une annonce très importante’’, sans donner d’indices. Le suspens ne dura cependant que quelques minutes. Bien avant le rendez-vous fixé par Washington, des médias et des journalistes avancent l’éventuelle éli ...
  • Authors
    Morten Seja
    November 1, 2019
    The author is an alumnus of the Atlantic Dialogues Emeging Leaders Program 2014. The discussion on industry 4.0 (also often referred to as smart manufacturing or industrial internet of things – which is the term mostly used in the United States of America) has graduated from being a niche topic discussed (and implemented) by engineers in the world’s richest economies. If industry 4.0 has not physically arrived everywhere, it is at least in the minds of some: industry 4.0 in Africa, ...
  • October 31, 2019
    La irrupción de Podemos (izquierda radical) y Ciudadanos (centro-derecha) a la política nacional en 2014 (elecciones europeas) y 2015 (elecciones generales) respectivamente, dio por finalizado el sistema bipartidista que caracterizó la política española desde finales del siglo XIX, y dio inicio a un bloqueo político persistente que imposibilitó la formación de un gobierno. A su vez, la aparición del partido de extrema derecha Vox en las últimas elecciones de abril de 2019, y la irru ...
  • Authors
    October 30, 2019
    Subsidizing fertilizer prices has been a popular policy tool to increase fertilizer use, but should it be? The main message of this Policy Brief is that it should not be, despite its appeal to politicians and recipient farmers alike. Instead, policy makers should seriously consider a holistic approach to promoting fertilizer. A holistic approach has the potential of effectively addressing a range of key interlocking constraints which condemn smallholders to low input, low productivi ...
  • Authors
    Benjamin Augé
    October 29, 2019
    L’ Afrique de l’Est a le potentiel de connaître un boom gazier et d’ exportation de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) ces prochaines années grâce à plusieurs projets qui viennent d’être débloqués. Le Mozambique a ainsi sanctionné deux projets totalisant plus de 15 millions de tonnes par an (Mt/an) de gaz liquéfié et un troisième devrait être lancé d’ici la fin 2019. Un premier Floating Liquefied Natual Gas plant (FLNG) d’ ENI arrivera sur le marché en 2021-2022 et quatre autres trains de l ...
  • October 29, 2019
    Questions : 1/ Qualifierez-vous le Sommet Russie/Afrique de Sotchi de retrouvailles ou de consolidation des relations russo-africaines ? 2/ Vladimir Poutine parviendra-t-il à remettre la Russie au centre de l’Afrique ? 3/ Moscou ne risque-t-elle pas de gêner les présences européenne, am...
  • Authors
    October 28, 2019
    Global GDP has slowed sharply, from near 4% in late 2017 to half that rate on an annualized basis in recent quarters. The downturn in fortunes over the last two years has come as a big surprise. The rapid expansion of 2016/2017 was broad based but died young. Prior to it we had suffered seven long years of slow growth in the wake of the global financial crisis Why did such a sharp and steady slowdown occur against a background of loose monetary policy, supportive fiscal policy, low ...
  • Authors
    Samuel Arnaud
    October 28, 2019
    Africa, as a continent of economic opportunities, is attracting foreign players. In this context, India is emerging as an important partner, especially for Eastern and Southern Africa. The complexity of its geopolitical environment combined with internal specificities motivated the revival of interest for the continent. This paper draws on historical developments between India and African countries to provide the state of play of recent linkages. Those trends are better perceived th ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    October 25, 2019
    Eric Ntumba, a young Congolese banker, came from Kinshasa in December 2017 to participate in the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Programme of the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Marrakech. At that time, when asked what his dream was, he immediately said he would like : « to become President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and bring about inclusive development, so that the country’s enormous potential can be finally transformed into power. My dream is that eac ...