The Global Context: Major Forces Shaping Our World

Industrial policy is a controversial, even taboo, subject in policy circles. Yet it is widely practiced by advanced and developing countries alike2 . This note tries to make sense of this paradox. It argues that industrial policy can be a useful weapon in the development policy arsenal. However, the effectiveness of industrial policy is more circumscribed than many of its practitioners think, and there are significant risks associated with getting it wrong, especially in a poor gove ...

The economic growth of the African continent and its positioning as an emerging force is a reality no longer questioned. Optimism surrounding the Africa rising narrative is supported by a growing young workforce, an expanding middle class, new discoveries of natural resources and minerals, relative political stability and infrastructure developments. Economic and international financial actors now recognize the potential that the continent represents for the world economy, consider ...

Global economic growth is likely to be a little better in 2016 than this year’s lackluster outcome. The ongoing slow recovery in the United States and Europe is likely to continue. However, weakness in China as well as several large emerging markets, and sluggishness of world trade, mean that risks are weighted on the downside of this forecast. Morocco, which is reliant on European markets, is a heavy importer of oil, and whose currency has devalued in effective terms, should find t ...

Au cours de la dernière décennie, le Ghana a enregistré des taux de croissance moyens supérieurs à 7 % par an, ce qui lui a permis d’accéder au statut de pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure. Toutefois, la croissance a récemment marqué le pas pour s’établir à 4,2 % en 2014, ce qui soulève la question de la pérennité du modèle de développement du pays. Le Ghana se trouve désormais à un stade critique de son processus de développement. Une transformation structurelle ...

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With these words Charles Dickens opens his novel “A Tale of Two Cities”. Winners and losers in a “tale of two commodities” may one day look back with similar reflections, as prices of metals and oil have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks, months and years. This blog seeks to explain how demand — but also supply and financial market conditions — are affecting metals prices. We will show some contrast with oil, where suppl ...

Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade flows increased sharply, multiplying by a factor of five over the past 20 years. Is this boom built on commodities only?  My answer is no ! Many countries have increased their integration in global value chains. But, it is also clear that sub-Saharan Africa still has some way to go. Increased trade boosts for growth Over the last two decades, the export-to-GDP ratio in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 20½ percent in 1995 to 27½ percent in 2013. This occ ...

The 16th Annual Global Development Conference has been dedicated this year to the theme of ‘Agriculture for Sustainable Growth: Challenges and Opportunities for a New ‘Green Revolution’.  One of the sub-themes that has been addressed during this event is related to the design of the optimal agricultural policy supposed to lead towards development, especially in low-income countries. The objective of this blog is to cover the key elements that make an agricultural policy successful a ...

« Les asymétries et l’instabilité du marché des matières premières dans les pays en développement : politiques et impacts sur le développement », une problématique d’un intérêt particulier pour ces pays, a fait l’objet d’un séminaire de recherche organisé par la Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International (Ferdi), les 24 et 25 juin 2015 à Clermont-Ferrand. Cet évènement a été tenu la veille du workshop co-organisé par la Ferdi et OCP Policy Center le 2 ...