Session 12: Sovereign Debt Distress in the Global South

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With these words Charles Dickens opens his novel “A Tale of Two Cities”. Winners and losers in a “tale of two commodities” may one day look back with similar reflections, as prices of metals and oil have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks, months and years. This blog seeks to explain how demand — but also supply and financial market conditions — are affecting metals prices. We will show some contrast with oil, where suppl ...

Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade flows increased sharply, multiplying by a factor of five over the past 20 years. Is this boom built on commodities only?  My answer is no ! Many countries have increased their integration in global value chains. But, it is also clear that sub-Saharan Africa still has some way to go. Increased trade boosts for growth Over the last two decades, the export-to-GDP ratio in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 20½ percent in 1995 to 27½ percent in 2013. This occ ...

Les fonds souverains, objet de toutes les attentions au cours des années 2000, devraient voir leur rôle de « stabilisateur » de l’économie se renforcer dans les mois à venir, en raison de la chute du prix des matières premières. Ces véhicules d’investissement doivent cependant être coordonnés avec les outils traditionnels de la politique fiscale et ne peuvent affranchir les pouvoirs publics d’effectuer à plus ou moins long terme les ajustements budgétaires que ce nouvel environnemen ...

Struggling with slow growth, many countries (advanced and developing), have allowed their currencies to slide against the U.S. dollar. Until recently, China stood out in resisting this trend, and indeed had seen a large appreciation against the US dollar over several years. So many saw its abrupt change of course not only as signaling deep trouble in China but also as opening the door to a bout of destabilizing currency competition. These troubling developments raise two important q ...

This brief seeks to look into how innovation ecosystems in the Atlantic Basin may affect public policymaking, economic development, and the future of commercial and social interactions. It looks more specifically at enabling technologies, which generate networks and increase connectivity. It also explores the transformational role these technologies play on the evolution of strategic industries in the Atlantic. The digital revolution’s full potential indeed lies in its capacity to s ...

The Chinese stock markets have been recently affected by plummeting indexes and high volatility. The substantial level of “mom and pop” speculators has been identified as one of the reason for these dynamics. Although there is no speculative bubble at the moment, we may question the impact of potential excessive trading on the promising future of Chinese commodity exchanges. ...