Robert SATGE - Chargé de Projets au sein de la Division Formation, CEFEB

The addition of a fourth US rate rise to the Federal Reserve’s 2018 dot-plot graph after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee sparked a bout of portfolio outflows from emerging markets. This followed a fleeting upswing at the beginning of the month that fell short on reversing the unwinding of exposure and sell-off of assets in May (Chart 1). Country differentiation has been accentuated, with exchange rate devaluation pressures and capital outflows occurring more no ...

The spike in US bond yields since mid-April in tandem with the strengthening of the dollar sparked a retrenchment of capital flows to emerging markets (EM), accompanied by a sell-off of assets in some cases. Argentina and Turkey suffered from strong and potentially disruptive exchange rate depreciation pressures in May, with financial markets calming down only after bold domestic policy moves (interest rate hikes in both countries and, in the case of Argentina, a decision to seek a ...

In its March 2018 meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for federal funds rate by a quarter point to 1.5-1.75 percent and Fed officials are now projecting a steeper path of hikes for the next two years. Recent inflation data would hint at the Fed staying firmly on track for another 25bp rate hike in June. As producer price inflation hit a seven-year high and a tightened labor market is exercising upward pressure on wage growth, there is no wonder expectations have sli ...

The launch of an oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) cannot be merely seen as a “technical” or secondary event, as it foreshadows what global commodities markets will become in a few years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) have, indeed, seen their trading volumes increase significantly over the past decade thanks to steel and iron ore, which could suggest that the move is, in fact, not that unprecedente ...

تعتبر 2018 بلا شك نقطة تحول في تطور الاقتصاد العالمي. أوروبا، بعد أن بدأت في الخروج من الأزمة في عام 2017 ، من المرجح أن تدخل مرحلة نمو قوي ومستدام بفضل الزيادة الهيكلية في الإنت°اج الصناعي، إضافة الى الانعكاسات الإيجابي°ة للمشروع الإصلاحي المؤيد لأوروبا موحدة الذي يحمله الثن°ائي الفرنسي الألماني. كما ان آسيا تستمر في تأكيد مكانتها كمحرك رئيسي للاقتصاد العالمي، حيث اصبحت ثلاثة بلدان من اسيا )الصين واليابان والهند( تنتمي لقائمة أكبر خمسة اقتصادات عالمية في عام 2018 . هذه التطورات تدف ...