The Internaional Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, issued on April 16, projected China’s economic growth rate at 4.6% and 4.1% for, respectively, 2024 and 2025. In 2023, after China’s economic reopening with the end of the ‘zero-COVID’ policy, the rate was 5.2%, above the official target of 5% (Figure 1).
For 2024, the official target has been set at 5% again. Notwithstanding the challenges we discuss here, China’s macroeconomic performance in the first quarter of 2024 has been ...