Otaviano Canuto on Secular Stagnation and the Big Balance Sheet Economy

In 2010, when I was one of the vice presidents at the World Bank, colleagues I and published a very upbeat book  about the possibility of emerging and developing economies replacing advanced countries as engines of global economic growth. While the latter would be grappling with the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the former, already growing at a faster pace in the previous decade and accounting for more than half of the annual increases in global GDP, had largely shown an ...

This paper was originally published as a chapter within the Book, Foreign Exchange Constraint and Developing Economies, published on January 2023 (ISBN  978 1 80088 049 8).   The decade after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 saw signifi- cant changes in the volume and composition of capital flows in the global economy. Portfolio investments and other non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) are behind an increasing share of foreign capital flows, while bank- ing flo ...

Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way t ...

This Paper was originally published on tandfonline.com   It has been recognised that the fiscal multiplier is a function of structural features of the economy and policy reaction parameters. Moreover, the debate on the magnitude of the multiplier along the business cycle has also been the subject of disputed debates. On these grounds, we look at the Greek case by calibrating a NUTS-2 interregional general equilibrium model using data for distinct states of the Greek economy during ...

L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement ...

En Afrique, le niveau de la vulnérabilité économique des pays reste élevé et représente un obstacle à la croissance économique et à la réduction de la pauvreté. Ce constat nous mène à étudier cette problématique pour un échantillon des pays africains les plus exposés aux chocs économiques. En effet, ce travail a pour objectif principal d’identifier les effets des composantes des deux indicateurs de vulnérabilité et de résilience économique sur le niveau de reve ...

The US dollar has risen dramatically in value against other currencies recently. Three channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials. The strong appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies recently reinforced the contractionary pressures present in the global economy. Ultimately, the “turn” or “pivot” of the dollar will most likely occur ...