Otaviano Canuto on Secular Stagnation and the Big Balance Sheet Economy

April 5, 2021

Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in tandem with a trend of decline in long-term real interest rates. Asset-driven macroeconomic cycles, along with a structural trend of rising influence of finance on income growth and distribution, have become part of the landscape. Underlying secular trends of stagnation may also be suggested, making the macroeconomic dynamics dependent on the balance sheet economy getting bigger and bigger.

Speakers
Otaviano Canuto
Senior Fellow
Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, principal at Center for Macroeconomics and Development and non-resident fellow at Brookings Institute. Former Vice President and Executive Director at the World Bank, Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Vice President at the Inter-American Development Bank. He was also Deputy Minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, as well as professor of economics at University of São Paulo (USP) and University of Campinas (UNICAMP). ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Mouhamadou Moustapha Ly
    January 30, 2019
    En l’espace d’une année, la Banque mondiale (BM) a enregistré deux démissions parmi son top management. Il y a douze mois (Janvier 2018), Paul Romer quittait la Banque mondiale pour retourner dans le monde académique. Au début de ce mois de janvier 2019, Jim Yong Kim annonce son départ de la présidence de la même institution pour rejoindre une autre spécialisée dans le financement des infrastructures.  Pour Paul Romer, les critiques à l’endroit du classement Doing Business, et la r ...
  • Authors
    January 14, 2019
    Last week Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, unexpectedly announced his resignation, effective as soon as next month and three and a half years prior to the end of his second mandate. Given the current environment of challenged and weakened multilateralism, the aftermath of his succession has a relevance that transcends the limits of that institution. While an analyst has alluded to President Kim as “voting with his feet” on the World Bank's loss of significance in investme ...
  • January 1, 2019
    Le Maroc a initié une première étape vers l’adoption d’un régime de change flexible, en élargissant les bandes de fluctuations à +/- 2,5% par rapport à un cours central. Cette transition permettrait à l’économie marocaine de se doter, à terme, d’un instrument macroéconomique qui joue le rôle d’amortisseur de choc et qui favorise un ajustement rapide et à moindre coût. A défaut de ce mécanisme, l’ajustement aux chocs macroéconomiques a, parfois, nécessité une contraction de la demand ...
  • January 1, 2019
    Morocco has moved towards a more flexible exchange rate system, by widening its currency fluctuation bands to +/- 2.5% around a central price. This transition will, in time, equip the Moroccan economy with a macroeconomic instrument acting as a shock absorber and facilitating rapid adjustment at lower costs. In the absence of such a mechanism, adjustment to macroeconomic shocks at times requires a contraction in demand and thereby a cyclical downturn in growth to restore external ba ...
  • December 15, 2018
    Moderator Richard Lui, Anchor, MSNBC / NBC News Speakers Laura Albornoz, Senior Fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Former Minister of Women's Affairs, Chile Geraldo Alckmin, Governor of São Paulo, Brazil Alfredo G. A. Valladão, Professor at Sciences PO Paris, Senior Fell...
  • December 15, 2018
    Moderator UDUAK AMIMO, CONSULTANT, UDUAK AMIMO CONSULTING (KENYA) Speakers André Caillé, Board Member, Junex R. Andreas Kraemer, Founder & Chairman, Ecologic Institute Josefa Sacko, Commissioner, Rural Economy and Agriculture, African Union Commission Teburoro Tito, Extraordinary an...
  • December 15, 2018
    Moderator Richard Lui, Anchor, MSNBC / NBC News Speakers Laura Albornoz, Senior Fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Former Minister of Women's Affairs, Chile Geraldo Alckmin, Governor of São Paulo, Brazil Alfredo G. A. Valladão, Professor at Sciences PO Paris, Senior Fell...
  • December 15, 2018
    Moderator UDUAK AMIMO, CONSULTANT, UDUAK AMIMO CONSULTING (KENYA) Speakers André Caillé, Board Member, Junex R. Andreas Kraemer, Founder & Chairman, Ecologic Institute Josefa Sacko, Commissioner, Rural Economy and Agriculture, African Union Commission Teburoro Tito, Extraordinary an...