Otaviano Canuto on Financial Globalization

One major policy issue in Brazil is how to boost productivity, while following a path of fiscal consolidation that will take at least a decade to bring the public-debt-to-GDP ratio back to 2000 levels (Canuto, 2016a). The productivityboosting agenda includes not only the implementation of a full range of structural reforms, but also recovering and upgrading the national infrastructure and other long-term investments. Given that fiscal consolidation has already been leading to less t ...

The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Robert Lighthizer as United States Trade Representative last week, rounding out President Donald Trump’s cabinet and giving momentum to his trade agenda. At his swearing-in ceremony on May 15, Ambassador Lighthizer predicted that President Trump would permanently reverse “the dangerous trajectory of American trade,” and in turn make “U.S. farmers, ranchers and workers richer and the country safer.” This policy shift will begin in earnest in the comin ...

Despite the threat posed by right-wing nationalism, left wing populism, and protectionism, this is not the end of globalization. The most likely scenario is a continuation of globalization at a rate like that of the last ten years and perhaps even acceleration as the world catches up on lost time in the wake of the financial crisis and its many aftershocks. However, in recent years a formidable resistance to globalization has arisen, and the risk of a sharp and temporary slowdown in ...

The best way I can describe my feelings about trade these days is as an unstable anxiety disorder. Following on November 8 2016, the date of the US election, my anxiety level rose markedly as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was buried. Shortly thereafter it touched a maximum when a dangerous idea called the Border Adjustment Tax was gaining traction, and the North-American Free Trade Agreement seemed headed the way of TPP. Then I became a little less prone to panic attacks, as v ...

U.S. Africa policy has tended to shift over time and has lacked a clear overarching strategic vision. The Trump administration’s approach in Africa should articulate a limited set of principles that clarifies and solidifies a more sustainable framework that is better suited to address fundamental drivers of Africa’s future. These principles include prioritizing key countries and rationalizing resources, creating an “Investment- First” policy in Africa, and more clearly communicating ...

Despite fraught politics, the global outlook is strengthening. The next twelve months are likely to be characterized by moderate but steady growth across the world. However, the outlook becomes murkier as we move into the second half of 2018 and 2019. Significant upside in world economic growth is possible on account of building momentum against a background of low capacity utilization, but even greater downside is possible on account of inconsistent economic policy in the Unites St ...