La guerre commerciale sino-américaine annonce-t-elle la fin du système commercial d’après-guerre?

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La guerre commerciale sino-américaine annonce-t-elle la fin du système commercial d’après-guerre?

February 23, 2022

Les hostilités commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis, qui se sont intensifiées sous la présidence de D. Trump et qui se sont poursuivies sous l'administration américaine actuelle, marquent un tournant dans la libéralisation de l'économie mondiale depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Le système commercial mondial est en ruine en raison de cette guerre commerciale, ainsi que du démantèlement du processus de règlement des différends de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce et des violations fréquentes des règles par ses membres. Cependant le système commercial d'après-guerre ne touche pas à sa fin ; il évolue plutôt vers un ensemble d'interactions commerciales plus compliquées, politiques et controversées. La nouvelle structure sera très probablement basée sur une OMC en mode maintenance, avec des réglementations faibles et inapplicables, et trois blocs établis par des hégémonies régionales. Au sein des blocs, le commerce sera ouvert et prévisible, mais les blocs seront distincts, ce qui conduira à la politisation du système. Les liens commerciaux entre les blocs seront tendus et peut-être instables, en particulier parmi les hégémons régionaux. À l'échelle mondiale, les pays doivent réévaluer leur politique commerciale et étrangère. Ce webinaire vise à mieux comprendre :

- Qu'est-ce qui constitue le « système commercial mondial » ;

- Quelles sont les implications de la guerre commerciale continue entre la Chine et les États-Unis sur le « système commercial mondial » ;

- Quelle forme aurait la nouvelle structure du « système commercial mondial » ?

Speakers

Abdelaaziz Ait Ali

Head - Research in Economics

Abdelaaziz Ait Ali is a principal Economist and head of the Research Department at the Policy Center for the New South. He joined the Center in 2014 after five years of experience at the Central Bank of Morocco. He worked as an economist in the International Studies and Relations Department and was analyzing the real estate price index and financial asset prices for monetary policy and financial stability purposes. Since then, Abdelaaziz has focused on cyclical and structural issues of the Moroccan economy, including macroeconomic management and industrial policy design. He has published articles on the reform of the exchange rate regime in the Moroccan economy and its implications for macroeconomic regulation, as well as on the evolution of the macroeconomic framework over th ...

Uri Dadush

Non-Resident Senior Fellow

Uri Dadush is non-resident Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, where he served as Senior Fellow from its founding in 2014 until 2022. He is Research Professor at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland and a non-resident scholar at Bruegel. He is based in Washington, DC, and is Principal of Economic Policy International, LLC, providing consulting services to the World Bank and to other international organizations as well as corporations. Previously, he served as Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and, at the World Bank, was Director of the International Trade, Economic Policy, and Development Prospects Departments. In the private sector before that he was President of the Economist Int ...

Mohammed Loulichki

Senior Fellow

Mohammed Loulichki is a Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and an Affiliate Professor at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University. He brings over 40 years of comprehensive experience in diplomacy, conflict resolution, and human rights. He has served in various roles including as a member and Deputy Head of the Moroccan delegation to the 3rd Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982-1990), Head of the Department of Legal Affairs and Treaties at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1988-1991), and General Director for Multilateral Affairs in the same ministry (2003-2006). He also acted as Morocco's Ambassador to Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Croatia (1995-1999), and was the Moroccan Government's Ambassador Coordinator with MINURSO (1999-2001). Furthermore, he served ...

Fathallah Oualalou

Senior Fellow

Fathallah Oualalou is an economist, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South. He obtained his PhD in economics from the University of Paris in 1968. Prior to joining the Policy Center for the New South, he served as a professor at Mohammed V University in Rabat and other higher education institutions in Morocco, and as an associate professor at several foreign universities. He is the author of numerous books and articles in the fields of economic theory, financial economics, international economic relations, the economies of Maghreb countries, the Arab world, and the Euro-Mediterranean area. In addition, he was the president of the Association of Moroccan Economists at the Union of Arab Economists. His political activism began with the creation, in the 1960s, of ...

Pierre Sauvé

Expert Sénior en Commerce International, World Bank

Pierre Sauvé est expert Senior en commerce international au sein du Groupe de la Banque Mondiale, où il gère les interactions avec les institutions commerciales basées à Genève et la communauté des donateurs, et représente la Banque dans les principaux comités liés à la gouvernance du commerce à l'OCDE, à Paris. Plus récemment, il a occupé le poste de directeur des programmes externes et des partenariats universitaires du WTI. Il a été professeur invité à l'Université de Barcelone, au Collège d'Europe, à l'Institut d'Etudes Politiques (Sciences-Po Paris) et à la London School of Economics and Political Science. Il a été économiste principal à la Direction des échanges de l'OCDE de 1993 à 2002, période durant laquelle il a été membre de la faculté de la John F. Kennedy School ...