AD 2021: The China-US Trade War: When Will it End?

November 17, 2021

The escalating US-China trade tensions has resulted in the rise of two separate spheres of influence in both trade and technology and contributed to reshaping the global trade landscape. In order to de-escalate the conflict, the two hegemonies signed the Phase One trade deal in January 2020. Amid the COVID-19 outbreak that undermined trade flows worldwide, China managed however to purchase around 60% of the committed amount for trade in goods in the Phase One deal. The main goal of US in addressing trade imbalances with China was offset with the increasing trade deficits with other industrial countries such as EU, Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. The aim of this session is to answer some critical questions related to the US-China trade prospects. Given the different episodes of uncertainty, including the COVID-19 outbreak, what are the urgent areas of collaboration between the US and China? What are the shortcomings of Phase One trade deal and the expectations of Phase Two deal? What might be the optimal alternative approach to purchase commitments in managing the trade imbalances? As the Biden administration is not inclined to immediately review the US policy toward China, what will be the consequences of maintaining tariffs in 2021 on both economies? The deep intertwining of the EU economies, the US and China implies that the trade war is having spillover effects that go beyond the imposed tariffs on China. What are the different implications for the EU in the context of the current crisis? Moderator: Steve Clemons, Editor at Large, The Hill Speakers: - Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South - Renato Flores, Director, International Intelligence Unit, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas, Brazil - Anabel Gonzalez, Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization - Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA

Speakers
Uri Dadush
Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Uri Dadush is non-resident Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, where he served as Senior Fellow from its founding in 2014 until 2022. He is Research Professor at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland and a non-resident scholar at Bruegel. He is based in Washington, DC, and is Principal of Economic Policy International, LLC, providing consulting services to the World Bank and to other international organizations as well as corporations. Previously, he served as Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and, at the World Bank, was Director of the International Trade, Economic Policy, and Development Prospects Departments. In the private sector before that he was President of the Economist Int ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Antonio Jorge Martins
    October 9, 2024
    The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implicati ...
  • Authors
    September 27, 2024
    This paper examines the implications of the U.S.-China trade war for developing countries, particularly in light of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The study traces the origins and escalation of the trade conflict, analyzing its multiple impacts on global trade patterns and economic growth. While some developing countries have benefited from trade diversion and supply-chain shifts, others, especially resource-exporting nations and the least-developed countries, have faced signi ...
  • Authors
    September 24, 2024
      This paper was originally published on t20brasil.org The resurgence of Neo protectionism as a reality is creating a pressing need to establish New Industrial Policies (NIPs) capable of striking a balance between Global Value Chains (GVC) managers' quest for efficiency and policy makers' need for more increasing resilience or national security in a turmoiled geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, although NIPs might pursue legitimate non-economic objectives, they are often captured ...
  • June 19, 2024
    Our Senior Fellow, Mr. Dominique Bocquet, presents his report, "Assessing Biden’s Presidency: A Method," offering a thorough analysis of President Joe Biden's administration. The report evaluates Biden's domestic and international policies, highlights key challenges and opportunities, a...
  • April 18, 2024
    The writing of this Report started in november 2023 and benefited during six months from the quality of discussions in the Policy center. Paul Isbel, Professor at UM6P, was a relentless proofreader who generously brought his outstanding competence in economy and political economy. Stephen Gardner went beyond his role as linguistic proofreader and showed an admirable understanding of the substance at stake. Under the direct supervision of Professor Abdelaziz Aitali, the Economic Depa ...
  • Authors
    November 21, 2023
    Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. Howev ...
  • Authors
    November 2, 2023
    The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to ...
  • Authors
    August 29, 2023
    At the August 22-24 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa said they wanted to use more of their national currencies for cross-border payments, which are currently dominated by the U.S. dollar and other global convertible currencies. Like China and the other BRICS, several other countries have also sought to develop alternative external payment mechanisms. Pairs of countries have agreed to settle commercial and financial transactio ...
  • April 10, 2023
    This policy paper examines India’s growing engagement in North Africa, focusing on five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Despite lacking a distinct regional policy for North Africa, India has amplified its bilateral engagement with these countries, underpinned by a steadfast commitment to the principle of South-South cooperation. Through its strategic moves in North Africa, India has established a powerful southern-west axis for its foreign policy that stretch ...
  • September 23, 2022
    Relations between Rabat and Seoul have been in a state of considerable flux in every aspect since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in July 1962. The Korean embassy in Rabat is Seoul's first permanent diplomatic representation on the African continent. ...