Publications /
Opinion

Back
William Ruto Declared Winner of Kenya’s Presidential Election: What to Expect Next?
Authors
August 18, 2022

On the evening of August 15, the Kenyan Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declared William Ruto, the vice-president of the outgoing government, as winner of the presidential race. The announcement was not made in a situation of calm, as political unrest and turbulence erupted a few moments before Wafula Chebukati, the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, announced the winner’s name. For the first time since it was established by the Constitution in 2011, the members of the IEBC failed to agree on the election results. In fact, four members out of seven, led by the Vice Chairperson Juliana Cherera, said they were unable to take ownership of the declared results.  Neither the constitution, nor the IEBC Act provide guidelines in case of a disagreement between the IEBC’s members. Thus, the Supreme Court seems to be the only institution with the capacity to state in lieu of a contestation of the elections’ results.  

Legal Pathways to Contest the Election Results

By virtue of the Kenyan Constitution, the IEBC has a mandate to supervise the conduct of the elections and ensure they are in accordance with legislation. Its powers and functions also include   investigation and prosecution of electoral offences by candidates, political parties, or their agents. However, its prerogatives do not include settling disputes arising after the declaration of results. This must be done by the Supreme Court. A defeated candidate can go to the court to contest the result within seven days. The court may then take up to 14 days to issue a decision on either the nullification or confirmation of the election results. In 2017, Raila Odinga, after losing to then-incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta, appealed to the Court, which ordered the nullification of the results and the rerun of the elections. The results of the second elections showed a clear victory for Uhuru Kenyatta, with 98% of the votes. Nonetheless, violent protests erupted in Odinga-supporting regions, such as the Kebira slums and the Kisumu district.

The history of post-electoral violence in Kenya haunts analysts and citizens as they await the first reactions from Raila Odinga and his supporters. The hours following the announcement of results were marked by dispersed protests that remain in scale much smaller than those of 2007 and 2017. Raila Odinga did not issue any statement until the day after, asserting that the announced results are null and void and must be quashed by the court. But he urged his supporters not take justice into their own hands.  

What to Expect Next?

The election outcome was undoubtedly expected to create division between the partisans of William Ruto and Raila Odinga. The competition was very tight and some of the pre-electoral polls, such as one conducted by Pollster Tifa Research, even gave Odinga a lead. Observers also agreed that it was one of the most competitive and uncertain elections, as both candidates have strong electoral bases and allies. It is precisely this point that might have reversed the balance. Could it be that Raila Odinga paid the price of his historical handshake with the former president? Did the shifting of alliances undermine the image of Raila Odinga as a historical opposition leader, who suddenly became a symbol of the ruling government?

It is worth mentioning that for Raila Odinga to appeal the results before the court, he must compose a file of evidence that technical and procedural breaches occurred during the elections. This procedure can be lengthy and costly. If the appeal is accepted by the Supreme Court, new elections will have to be organized within 60 days.

Organizing new elections would mean huge costs and logistical challenges to run the polling stations and mobilize staff at the different voting centers. Can Kenya really afford such a proceeding? The answer is probably not. Ever since the shifting of alliances between William Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenyans have been keen to avoid ethnic politics as the economic situation of the country appears to be at its worst. Mounting levels of public debt, inflation, and youth unemployment have weighed heavily on the living standards of regular Kenyans, who seem more concerned about their economic and social wellbeing than anything else.

In a context in which the economic and social wellbeing of Kenyans is placed at the heart of all concerns, the appetite and desire for new elections might seem very limited. The turnout in the official round was already lower than past years (65%), and the lagging performance of the former government leaves the new leadership of Kenya with no option but to start immediate work to address the economic and social challenges ahead.

Though the Supreme Court decided to rule in favor of Raila Odinga in the 2017 elections, the situation might differ for the 2022 elections. The four members of the IEBC who dismissed the results—Juliana Cherera, Francis Wanderi, Irene Masit, and Justus Nyang'aya—were appointed by Uhuru Kenyatta, who is an ally of Raila Odinga, meaning a potential conflict of interest. The press conference held by Juliana Cherera to highlight the deficiencies of the process was marked by inconsistencies, as Mrs. Cherera declared an error margin of 0.01% amounting for 1420 votes, but that she mistakenly counted as 142,000 votes (a considerable gap as only 233,000 votes separated the two). This error has of course been taken up by supporters of William Ruto, who have accused the dissenting four commissioners of corruption and lack of professionalism.

Should this new context lead to a different way of handling post electoral divergences in Kenya? William Ruto in his presidential speech thanked Raila Odinga and said he was ready to collaborate with all leaders of Kenya with no room for vengeance. William Ruto and Raila Odinga were once allies in the 2007 elections, when they faced the Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta duet. Can they prove that in politics there are no permanent enemies or friends, and that Kenya comes first, as suggested by the name of William Ruto’s alliance, Kenya Kwanza?

Only the upcoming days can bring answers to all the underlying questions around the  election results.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    September 8, 2020
    Les pays du Sahel font face à des changements politiques qui affectent négativement le continent africain dans son ensemble. Ce papier, tout en traitant la question des armées et de leurs implications dans des zones de conflits, notamment au Mali, pierre d’achoppement de la région, tente d’établir le lien essentiel entre sécurité et développement. La nécessaire importance à accorder au renforcement des institutions nationales est aussi en filigrane des arguments développés. This ch ...
  • September 4, 2020
    The 2011 announcement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s construction came at a critical time, as Egypt was in the midst of a revolution and relations between Egypt and Ethiopia were already tense. Despite initial Egyptian threats of undertaking military action, Ethiopia pursued the construction of what has been presented as an essential part of its national and, to some extent, regional development. Tensions between the Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have been extremely high for t ...
  • Authors
    Sous la direction de
    September 3, 2020
    Au moment où elle fêtait le passage à 2020, l’Afrique était loin de soupçonner que l’année à laquelle elle faisait ses adieux, aurait le funeste “privilège” de porter dans ses registres d’Etat-civil, la naissance d’un virus qui allait paralyser le monde, dans la première moitié de l’année suivante. C’est sur cette Afrique de l’année pré-Covid-19 que portent les différents papiers du présent Rapport. Les uns, reflétant les espoirs, les ambitions et les projets africains et, les autre ...
  • August 18, 2020
    Fragile, poor, and conflict-affected Sahelian countries of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso were expected to witness catastrophic health and security situations following the emergence of COVID-19. However, the number of cases and deaths remained relatively low in all three countries compared to other parts of the world. Violent extremist organizations (VEOs) attempted to exploit the pandemic in their narratives, while continuing to conduct attacks in the region. Violence and attacks b ...
  • August 17, 2020
    Against the backdrop of mutual accusations of a lack of political will to bring the tripartite negotiations on the commissioning of the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” (GERD), to a successful conclusion, Egypt and Ethiopia continue to alternately send signals of provocation and appeasement. This tension is growing in intensity as the rainy season (July to September) draws nearer. On the one hand, Ethiopia intends to seize this opportunity to fill the dam; on the other hand, Egypt ...
  • Authors
    Amine Harastani Madani
    July 29, 2020
    Parler de de l’Union africaine sans évoquer la place qu’y occupe le Maroc serait incomplet, car le Royaume a contribué activement à la construction africaine, s’en est séparé, en signe de protestation contre le non-respect de la légalité internationale par les organes de la défunte Organisation de l’Unité africaine pour, ensuite, y retourner, dans le cadre de l’Union africaine. Doit-on parler de retour ou d’admission ? Indépendamment de la réponse apportée à cette question, il convi ...
  • July 22, 2020
    L’Union européenne (UE) et l’Union africaine (UA) vont se retrouver au mois d’octobre 2020 dans un Sixième Sommet du cycle de la Stratégie Conjointe UEAfrique qui les réunit périodiquement depuis l’année 2000. Ce Sommet se profile dans un contexte de turbulences provoqué par le choc pandémique de la Covid-19. Dans cette perspective, l’UE a présenté à l’UA une nouvelle offre de coopération inspirée du « Green Deal », la stratégie géopolitique et économique arrêtée par la nouvelle Com ...
  • July 15, 2020
    في فبراير 2020 نشر كاتب هذه الأوراق مؤلفه حول موضوع «نحن و العولمة » حيث تساءل عن جواب الجنوب اتجاه التحولات الكبرى التي تعرفها هذه الأخيرة 1. تعبر الكلمات المفاتيح لهذه الأوراق )الهشاشة، التشظي، اللايقين، غير المتوقع، الهلع، السمعة، الصحة، البيئة، التكافؤ، الأقلمة، استعادة التموقع، الإختبار، الفرص(، عن المشاعر الشائعة عالميا خال شهور الحجر الصحي الذي فرضته جائحة كفيد 19 و ما نتج عنها من انكماش كبير للإقتصاد. عرف العالم مند بداية القرن ثاث هزات هائلة : الأولى جيوسياسية ) 11 شتنبر 20 ...
  • Authors
    July 10, 2020
    Six mois après la remise en question de la présence française au Sahel et l’engagement pris pour accélérer les efforts de lutte contre le terrorisme dans la région, la France, principale puissance impliquée dans la région, rencontre ses partenaires africains pour un point d’étape et lance un message fort à la communauté internationale : là où la France s’engagera, l’Europe s’engagera aussi. Le Président Emmanuel Macron a relevé la montée en gamme des armées locales et les récents d ...
  • July 3, 2020
    Our Senior Fellow and professor at the University Abdelmalek Essaadi (Tangier) Rachid El Houdaigui, contributed with a chapter on « The South Atlantic, a Space under Construction » in Idn Cadernos (nstituto daDefesaNacional) n°38, the Academic journal of the Atlantic Centre for Defence Capacity Building. This paper was presented – along other experts from countries bordering the Atlantic basin and beyond- in the context of Rachid El Houdaigui’s participation in the first seminar org ...