Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
Read more
Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
Authors
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
J. A. León
M. Ordaz
I. F. Araújo
May 30, 2022
Related topics: 
Economy

This Paper was originally published on nature.com

 

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    USA/Europe: Seven Digital Challenges
    Authors
    Laurence Nardon
    Siméon Rust
    December 6, 2021
    Thanks to the positive momentum in transatlantic relations brought about by the arrival of the Biden administration, significant progress is expected on a range of key digital issues. New rules are emerging that are designed to level the playing field for economic actors and ensure the respect of civil liberties, while significant new investments in technological innovation are taking place amid considerable industrial reorganizations. This paper proposes to shed light on seven part ...
  • Download PDF
    Covid-19 and the Fiscal Space of Developing Countries
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    December 6, 2021
    Between January 2020 and June 2021, the world spent about US $16.5 trillion (18% of world GDP) to fight COVID-19, and this amount does not even include the most important losses such as deaths, mental health effects, restrictions on human freedom, and other nonmonetary suffering. Nearly 90% of this amount was spent by developed economies; the rest by emerging market and developing economies. Low-income countries spent just US $12.5 billion, or less than 0.0001% of the total. Moreove ...
  • Download PDF
    De la transition environnementale à la crise énergétique : le gaz naturel a-t-il un avenir ?
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    December 3, 2021
    Si le recours aux énergies renouvelables ne peut que croître, doit-on symétriquement considérer que le gaz naturel est, à l’instar du pétrole et du charbon, une énergie du passé ? Cette question simple en apparence, appelant une réponse tranchée et nécessairement positive au regard de l’impératif climatique, de la nécessité de décarboner nos économies, mais également des engagements politiques pris dans ce sens par de nombreuses nations. Le bien-fondé environnemental de ce raisonnem ...
  • AD 2021: Post-Covid Development: New Models and Horizons
    December 1, 2021
    La pandémie a déclenché une crise de développement sans précédent, qui a remis en cause la résilience de nos systèmes économiques, politiques et sociaux. Mais, dans l’effort de confronter ses implications multiples, il y a aussi une opportunité de s’élargir vers de nouveaux horizons en ...
  • AD 2021: Développement Post-Covid : Nouveaux modèles et horizons
    December 1, 2021
    La pandémie a déclenché une crise de développement sans précédent, qui a remis en cause la résilience de nos systèmes économiques, politiques et sociaux. Mais, dans l’effort de confronter ses implications multiples, il y a aussi une opportunité de s’élargir vers de nouveaux horizons en ...
  • Download PDF
    The Sudan at a Crossroads: Multi-layered Fragility
    Authors
    Nihal El Mquirmi
    November 30, 2021
    Almost three years since the ousting of former president Omar al-Bashir, and the formation of a transitional government composed of civilians and members of the military, the situation in Sudan is far from stable. Indeed, although progress has been achieved since December 2018, the democratic transition remains very fragile, with the political and economic sectors still facing significant uncertainty. This paper explains the fragility of the Sudanese transition, plagued by decades o ...
  • La Chine & l'espace arabo-africain
    Authors
    Fathallah Oualalou
    November 30, 2021
    Pourquoi ce thème ? Pourquoi, alors que nous traversons une pandémie sans précédent, l'auteur a-t-il décidé de comprendre les liens entre la Chine, l'espace arabo-africain et les nouvelles routes de la soie ? À cause du Covid-19, le monde se trouve à un tournant historique et stratégique du processus de mondialisation. Selon ses observations (comme homme politique), cette pandémie est bien plus qu'une crise sanitaire, c'est une crise globale qui a des impacts sociaux, économiques, ...
  • Download PDF
    The Metamorphosis of Finance and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    November 25, 2021
    The decade after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09 brought significant changes in the volume and composition of capital flows in the global economy. Portfolio investments and other non-bank financial intermediaries are responsible for an increasing share of foreign capital flows, while banking flows have shrunk in relative terms. This paper considers the implications of such a metamorphosis of finance for capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). After examining capital ...