Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
The Future of Globalization
Authors
Uri Dadush
May 22, 2017
Related topics: 
Economy
Trade

Despite the threat posed by right-wing nationalism, left wing populism, and protectionism, this is not the end of globalization. The most likely scenario is a continuation of globalization at a rate like that of the last ten years and perhaps even acceleration as the world catches up on lost time in the wake of the financial crisis and its many aftershocks. However, in recent years a formidable resistance to globalization has arisen, and the risk of a sharp and temporary slowdown in global economic integration cannot be dismissed. Policy- makers and businesses should persist with their internationalization strategies, but also must take steps to mitigate the risk of protectionism.

RELATED CONTENT

  • The U.S. Tariff Saga Hasn’t Reached Its Climax Yet
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 3, 2025
    Estimates based on last year’s U.S. imports, by Maia G. Crook (from JPMorgan) indicate that the average effective U.S. tariff rate is currently 16%, and is expected to rise to 20% by the end of 2025. This represents an increase from 13% mid-year and 2.3% in 2024 (Figure 1). Effective tariff rates are a measure of the degree of protection a tariff structure offers to the value added provided by each sector to a country’s final product, taking into account both the tax on final g ...
  • The Illusion of Reciprocity in Global Trade – and the Case for a Multipolar Order
    Authors
    Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
    August 22, 2025
    History offers ample instances in which the veneer of fairness in international relations has worn away, revealing with unsentimental clarity the crude mechanics of power. The contemporary global trade architecture, promoted for decades by the United States as a virtuous system of open markets, a rules-based order, and reciprocal gains, is merely the latest in a long lineage of such illusions. ...
  • Prospects for Deeper Economic Integration under AfCFTA
    August 22, 2025
    This episode explores the opportunities and challenges of achieving deeper economic integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). We discuss the potential for boosting intra-African trade, industrialization, and investment flows. The conversation highlights the nee...
  • Download PDF
    Plurilateralism and Regionalism as Alternatives to Multilateralism in Global Trade
    Authors
    Hung Q. Tran
    August 19, 2025
    The multilateral, rule-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been undermined by the unilateral imposition of U.S. tariffs. Crucially, the foundational principle of non-discrimination among WTO members has been abandoned. While many countries have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes, they have simultaneously sought to deepen trade ties with each other through plurilateral and regi ...
  • Global changes and effectiveness of innovation policy in Brazil
    Authors
    Sergio Queiroz
    Nicholas Vonortas
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 18, 2025
    This Paper was originally published on springer.comBrazil went from a quite impressive economic performance during much of the twentieth century to a period of mediocre growth from 1980 onwards. This shift has positioned the country as a textbook case of the “middle-income trap”. This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s—notably the globalization of firms and industries—combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupte ...
  • Brazil As a Special Target of President Trump’s Tariff Hikes
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 4, 2025
    An Executive Order issued on July 30 by President Donald Trump hiked United States tariffs on imports from Brazil by 40%, in addition to the 10% established on April 2—the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ when Trump set out ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on countries around the world.The decree came with a long list of exemptions for Brazilian exports. For a number of product lines, the 10% April 2 tariff will continue to apply. These include air transport equipment, orange juice, furniture, fuel, ...
  • Securing Africa’s Future: Ring-Fencing Development Financing in an Era of Security-Focused Economic Policy
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    Laura Rubidge
    July 25, 2025
    This paper was originally published on The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) In the face of Africa’s development challenges and the mismatch between long-term needs and short-term pressures, ring-fencing development expenditures offers a viable solution to secure sustainable financing for growth. ...
  • Policy Resource Guide (PRG) on Investment, Trade and Employment in the Southern Mediterranean region
    Authors
    Aomar Ibourk
    July 24, 2025
    This Paper was originally published on ilo.org A guide by the Mainstreaming Employment into Trade and Investment in the Southern Mediterranean (METI) Programme to advise policymakers on how to develop and implement trade, investment and employment.The PRG is a strategic framework designed to align trade and investment policies with employment goals in the Southern Mediterranean. The guide promotes practical solutions and supports policies that foster economic growth, empow ...
  • Annual Report on the African Economy 2025
    Authors
    Edited by
    Larabi Jaïdi
    July 14, 2025
    Available soon on livremoi. The 2025 edition of the African Economic Report continues in the spirit of previous versions. It presents a broad overview of the continent’s economic evolution and offers insights into Africa’s relationship with the rest of the world. In other words, it explores how Africa navigates the effects of global fragmentation within its regional spaces while pursuing its ambition of continental integration. ...
  • Download PDF
    Asian Economic Integration Led by Trade Liberalization: A Lesson for Other Regions
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Hung Q. Tran
    July 9, 2025
    Developing countries have few options to deal with the ongoing tariff war amid unpredictable shifts in global supply chains. However, regional economic integration offers a strategic path of development in these uncertain and challenging times. Helped by geographical proximity and cultural familiarity, countries in a region can benefit greatly from promoting trade with one another, reaping the benefits of comparative advantages and economies of scale—if they are able to establish a ...