Publications /
Research Paper

Back
Ethiopia: Emergence and Positive Change in a Turbulent Geopolitical Context
May 30, 2016

Ethiopia is located at the heart of the Horn of Africa. Torn between its position within the Greater Middle East (Culcasi 2008, 128 and Fukuyama 2008, 206) from one side, and Sub Saharan Africa on the other, this East African state is landlocked in a region marked by intense and long-standing political strife and conflicts, and is directly exposed to regional insecurity and political volatility. Against this unstable background, successive regimes and governments in Addis Ababa have been continuously challenged with ensuring stability and prosperity in the context of a turbulent regional landscape. The end of the civil war in 1991 with the establishment of the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (1991-1995) and then the coming to power of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) following the country’s first multi-party election in May 1995, marked a new phase in a centennial leadership transformational process. From a centralized feudal empire, to a communist military dictatorship that collapsed in face of rebel revolutionaries, later forming an umbrella revolutionary democratic organization--the EPRDF.

Ethiopia’s current growth is not only a numerical miracle but it is visible on the ground. Remarkably recording high and sometimes double-digit growth rates for the past decade, the booming construction sector along with the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are the main drivers of this economy, boasting one of the highest growth rates across the globe. Yet, while Ethiopia’s strategic thinking on its emergence and development is mainly focused on the country’s internal flaws, that is to say its vulnerabilities, poverty and famine, it is now rapidly facing greater risks from regional turmoil with surrounding civil conflicts and the exacerbation of existing tensions due to the increased militarization of the region under ‘anti-piracy’ measures and now, with the war in Yemen.

Through this paper, we will use an anthropological and historical approach in the first part, in order to understand Ethiopia’s modern state building process since the fall of Haile Selassie’s empire to the rise of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). We will also present some of the key initiatives and notions related to the country’s democratic transition, specifically the centrality of identity politics in Ethiopia’s modern nation-building and the concept of “democratic developmental state” coined by Meles Zenawi. Then, in the second section, we will underline the factors that have contributed to the federal arrangement under which the country is gradually and surely building its national identity, in order to reach national consensus around its growth and transformation agenda. Finally, we will showcase the modern developments in the country within its geopolitical context, taking into account Ethiopia’s engagement within its regional and sub-regional environments.

RELATED CONTENT

  • July 20, 2022
    كانت سنة 2021 سنة اضطراب جيو-سياسي وانقلاب جيو-اقتصادي عالميين. ومع تزايد زخم الأحداث، دخل العالم فترة تحول جيو-سياسي وجيو-اقتصادي تعلن نهاية دورة تاريخية وتُنبِّؤ بآفاق غير مؤكدة لدورة جديدة. وعليه، فإننا من الآن فصاعداً أمام تغير عالمي حقيقي ينطوي على نقاط ضغط متعددة وقوىً دافعة جيو-س...
  • July 15, 2022
    Longtemps considérée comme ce que plusieurs ont appelé un « lac salé » qui sépare l’Afrique et l’Asie, la mer Rouge a longtemps été marginalisée au niveau international. Néanmoins, depuis ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    May 17, 2022
    Ce thème, abordé au Centre HEC de Géopolitique à Jouy-en-Josas, lors de la 12e édition des Dialogues stratégiques avec le Policy Center for the New South, une rencontre semestrielle, a permis de revenir dans le détail sur cette zone qui relie la Méditerranée à l’océan Indien, à la jointure de trois continents : l’Asie, l’Afrique et l’Europe. Cette route maritime qui s’étend sur plus de 2 200 km, pour une largeur qui varie de 300 km à moins de 30 km entre Djibouti et le Yémen, représ ...
  • May 13, 2022
    Depuis 2016, le Policy Center for the New South et le Centre HEC de Géopolitique organisent chaque année deux éditions des « Dialogues Stratégiques ». Cette plateforme d’analyse et d’échange réunit des experts, des chercheurs provenant de différents think-tanks et du monde académique, d...
  • Authors
    April 26, 2022
    As China’s presence has expanded into the Horn of Africa, Somaliland has opted to distance itself from Beijing and presented itself as a democratic ally of the West – and Taiwan. On March 17, 2022, three Republican Congressmen introduced a bill titled the “Somaliland Partnership Act,” requiring the American Secretary of State to submit annual reports to Congress on assistance provided to Somaliland and conduct a feasibility study on establishing a security partnership with Somalilan ...
  • October 5, 2021
    Seconde nation la plus peuplée d’Afrique après le Nigeria, l’Éthiopie se distingue par un essor économique continu depuis trente ans. Des progrès notables sévèrement remis en question par le conflit avec la province du Tigré, qui dure depuis près d’un an. Pays phare de la Corne de l’Afrique, l’Éthiopie s’est distinguée par une croissance moyenne à deux chiffres (10 %) sur la période 2010-2019. Tombée à 6 % en 2020, celle-ci ne devrait pas dépasser 2 % en 2021 selon la Banque mondia ...
  • Authors
    August 11, 2021
    The ongoing war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has resulted in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in a decade. The escalating conflict has led to the death and displacement of thousands of civilians, raised ethnic tensions in Ethiopia, and caused a food crisis that could lead to widespread famine. Much can be said about this conflict—how it revolves around models of governance and conflicting visions of self-determination, and how its impact will be felt across the region. Here ...
  • Authors
    Sous la direction de
    Joseph Alain Sissao
    Yazid Benhadda
    Hanae Bezad
    Afua Boatemaa Yakohene
    Salma Daoudi
    Hajar El Alaoui
    Souha Majidi
    Alioune Ndiaye
    Jo Ann Takyiwah Sackey
    June 23, 2021
    Cette édition du Rapport géopolitique de l’Afrique, la quatrième, s’inscrit dans la droite ligne de la philosophie et de l’esprit du Policy Center for the New South, qui milite pour une Afrique partie intégrante du Sud global et acteur, en devenir, dans les affaires mondiales. L’Afrique comme continent et comme espace est le théâtre où se déploient les actions des Africains pour réagir et interagir avec les conjonctures internationales, et l’Afrique comme populations et institutions ...
  • September 4, 2020
    The 2011 announcement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s construction came at a critical time, as Egypt was in the midst of a revolution and relations between Egypt and Ethiopia were already tense. Despite initial Egyptian threats of undertaking military action, Ethiopia pursued the construction of what has been presented as an essential part of its national and, to some extent, regional development. Tensions between the Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have been extremely high for t ...
  • Authors
    Sous la direction de
    September 3, 2020
    Au moment où elle fêtait le passage à 2020, l’Afrique était loin de soupçonner que l’année à laquelle elle faisait ses adieux, aurait le funeste “privilège” de porter dans ses registres d’Etat-civil, la naissance d’un virus qui allait paralyser le monde, dans la première moitié de l’année suivante. C’est sur cette Afrique de l’année pré-Covid-19 que portent les différents papiers du présent Rapport. Les uns, reflétant les espoirs, les ambitions et les projets africains et, les autre ...