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Climate change in Brazil: dealing with uncertainty in agricultural productivity models and the implications for economy-wide impacts
Authors
Bruno Souza
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
June 18, 2021
Related topics: 
Economy
Sectorial policies and structural transformation
Commodities & Energy
Climate change and biodiversity
Agriculture
Agricultural Policies
Americas and Carribean
South America

This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country’s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses due to climate change range from 0.4% to 1.8% of Brazilian gross domestic product until the end of the century.

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