Thriving on uncertainty: COVID-19 related opportunities for terrorist groups

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Thriving on uncertainty: COVID-19 related opportunities for terrorist groups

September 23, 2021

The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) is organizing a public debate titled "Thriving on uncertainty: COVID-19 related opportunities for terrorist groups” on Thursday, September 23rd, 2021 at 3pm GMT+1. This webinar is the result of a Joint Policy Study, coordinated by our Senior Fellow Abdelhak Bassou and our International Relations Specialist Youssef Tobi, in the framework of the EuroMeSCo: Connecting the Dots project, co-funded by the European Union and the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed). Covid-19 has put the world in a state of global uncertainty. State responses have been crucial in dealing with this unexpected pandemic, but by putting pressure on health infrastructures and challenging state legitimacy and responses, the virus has slowly become a global test for almost all governments. The efficiency of the strategies employed to cope with the exponential infection rates generated by the pandemic varies and depends on the initial levels of public services available, as well as on the capacity of States to mobilize and communicate in a timely and coherent manner. In the MENA and Sahel regions, we notice an entanglement between pre-existing threats and the impact of the pandemic. In fragile states, the constant threat of violent terrorism has been linked to the turmoil caused by the spread of the virus, amplifying the unsteady scene for countering-terrorism efforts. Terrorist groups, already challenging state legitimacy and human security in the MENA and Sahel countries, have taken COVID-19 as a vindication of their ideological standpoints and have used the uncertainty caused by the virus to further pressure states’ defence apparatuses. Given the limited levels of infrastructures and already challenged political landscapes in these regions, the virus could further weaken economies and fuel public dissent, crafting a perfect storm of conditions for terrorist agendas to thrive. Exploring related opportunities offered by COVID-19 to terrorist groups in these regions allows for a prospective and analytical work that will deepen the understanding of terrorist tactics and propaganda strategies, thus enabling the adoption of a more comprehensive approach with regards to responding and assisting states on the ground. Policy recommendations derived from this study will not only aim at mitigating risks derived from the interlinkage between the turmoil caused by the virus and terrorism in the region, but will also focus on state responses and the assessment of innovative and applicable ways to support CVE and PVE efforts in an uncertain and novel landscape in the regions covered. Against this background, the findings of the paper can help EU policy makers adopt more effective policies in weakening the recruiting capabilities of terrorists, and launch new cooperation programs with North African countries.

Speakers

Abdelhak Bassou

Senior Fellow

Abdelhak Bassou is a Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center. He is also an Affiliate Professor at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University. Bassou has had an extensive career in Moroccan National Security, where he served in various capacities including as head of the border division from 1978 to 1993. He was the former director of the Royal Institute of Police in 1998 and served as Head of Regional Security (Errachidia 1999-2003, Sidi Kacem 2003-2005) and as Central Director of General Intelligence from 2006 to 2009. He holds a master's degree in political science and international studies from the Faculty of Law, Economics, and Social Sciences in Rabat. His academic research delves into inte ...

Youssef Tobi

International Relations Specialist

Tobi Youssef has joined the Policy Center for the New South in 2017. He is currently working on Politics and Governance in the Maghreb Region; his areas of expertise are geopolitics, political risk and nation building. Youssef Tobi obtained a Master Degree at Sciences Po Lyon where he wrote two thesis on “ the role of Moroccan Bank in Africa, a non-state actor in service of the Diplomacy” and the“ Chasm between the mediatic and associative representation of refugees : a case study”. Prior to working at the Think tank, Tobi Youssef participated in a Social Entrepreneurship Project in Beirut, Lebanon and conducted an internship in a NGO based in Marseille where he assisted refugees and helped raise funds. ...

Noamane Cherkaoui

Researcher in International Relations, Policy Center for the New South

Noamane Cherkaoui is an analyst in the Strategic Monitoring and Analysis Unit at the Policy Center for the New South, where he has been researching North Africa geopolitics and security. He graduated from the University of Otago in New Zealand with the Dean’s Award. He is also a postgraduate in International Relations at the University of Leicester, with his dissertation being on the external interference in Libya’s Civil War post-2014. ...

Nihal El Mquirmi

International Relations Specialist

Nihal El Mquirmi is an International Relations Specialist within the Department of Research in International Relations at the Policy Center for the New South. Her research focuses on North Africa, the gender-security nexus and the use of Private Military and Security Companies. Nihal joined the Policy Center for the New South in March 2019 following the completion of her M.A. in International Security at the University of Warwick, and her B.A. Hons in International Relations from Complutense University of Madrid. Prior to joining the Policy Center, Nihal interned at the General Consulate of Morocco in Brussels and at the Mission of Morocco to the European Union. ...

Mohammed Loulichki

Senior Fellow

Mohammed Loulichki is a Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and an Affiliate Professor at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University. He brings over 40 years of comprehensive experience in diplomacy, conflict resolution, and human rights. He has served in various roles including as a member and Deputy Head of the Moroccan delegation to the 3rd Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982-1990), Head of the Department of Legal Affairs and Treaties at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1988-1991), and General Director for Multilateral Affairs in the same ministry (2003-2006). He also acted as Morocco's Ambassador to Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Croatia (1995-1999), and was the Moroccan Government's Ambassador Coordinator with MINURSO (1999-2001). Furthermore, he served ...

Oussama Tayebi

International Relations Specialist

Oussama Tayebi is an International Relations Specialist at the Strategic Analysis & Monitoring Unit of the Policy Center for the New South, where he primarily works on policy and governance issues in the subregion of Central Africa. Oussama holds a Licence degree in political science from the School of Governance and Economics in Rabat and a master’s degree in international relations from Sciences Po Aix. ...