Senior Fellows Testimonials

Empirical models of international commodity trade ows tend to show that exchange rate volatility has either no or negative impact on export volumes. This analysis has a number of limitations. In particular, it underestimates the role of physical traders and, consequently, the importance of future markets. In this context, this article aims to provide the theoretical underpinnings to demonstrate that these traders play a very particular role and that they have an influence on the rea ...

The New York Times reported this morning that after the shot down of an U.S. drone by Iranian forces, President Trump ordered military retaliation, but called it off in the early phase. Below is a facts' review through the international press perspectives. “You are pushing everyone towards a confrontation” Unusually, the satellite images were not presented to the media. Possibly, the photos were taken from a submarine, or there was fear that the enemy could figure out who and how ...

The world is navigating through turbulent waters, witnessing one the most significant transitions ever in its history. With the ascension of China and the steady decline of the United States, there is a general sense of insecurity and fear about the future and the unknown. Change is never a comfortable period due to the turmoil it frequently generates. The relationship between the United States and China will never be the same, but it will not end up in war, as some expect. China is ...

Les Etats-Unis ont alternativement défendu le système westphalien et fustigé ses principes d’équilibre des forces et de non-ingérence dans les affaires intérieures d’autrui en les prétendant immoraux et démodés. Il leur est même arrivé de faire les deux à la fois. Ce qui ne les empêche pas de continuer à affirmer la validité universelle de leurs valeurs pour l’édification d’un ordre mondial pacifique et de se réserver le droit de les soutenir à l’échelle planétaire. Henri Kissinger ...

There is no doubt that the ascension of China, which is at the centre of the global debate, is the most relevant fact of the 21st century. A rising power with many vulnerabilities, yet a clear understanding of what they are and with the willingness to actively reduce them to a minimum, manageable level. China has managed to become, after all, the second largest economy in the world, with outstanding economic performance. Globalisation has brought China from the periphery into the co ...

Enhancing the strategic thinking on issues related to stability and security at the African level requires challenging the predominant classical conception of security towards a more comprehensive, supportive and inclusive approach. While traditional strategies are often based on military responses and hard power, it is necessary to emphasize soft power in all its dimensions, placing the individual at the heart of all conflict prevention and management methods. Some authors argue f ...

L’analyse des mutations qu’a connues l’économie marocaine après la crise économique et financière de 2008, offre l’opportunité d‘évaluer l’orientation des politiques macroéconomiques gérées dans un contexte relativement difficile, mettant à l’épreuve les décideurs publics en matière de politique économique et leur engagement à préserver la stabilité du cadre macroéconomique. Un diagnostic approfondi revient à apprécier la pertinence des choix de politiques macroéconomiques par rappo ...

Has the integration of European, North American and Asian natural gas markets been fostered over the last few years by growing LNG export capacities and an increasing market share of spot transactions? This is the key question that this article sets out to answer. For this purpose, we develop bivariate error correction models with structural breaks and asymmetric responses among gas references prices, oil prices, and coal prices. We use daily prices of all reference prices spanning ...