Geopolitics

Over the past 50 years, international law relevant to the Sahara Issue has evolved significantly. Yet, even recent developments, such as a decision by the EU court and a proposal by the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy to partition the Saharan provinces, have not adequately accounted for these advancements. Actions by a state that may not have been scrutinized in 1975 could now face condemnation under contemporary legal standards. Notably, the right to self-determination must not ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is at a critical juncture, facing an intricate polycrisis defined by interlinked challenges including energy insecurity, water scarcity, migration, conflict, and socio-political fragmentation. These crises are not isolated; their interconnectedness amplifies their impact, creating a destabilizing feedback loop that hinders sustainable development and peacebuilding efforts. This paper explores the concept of polycrisis through the lens o ...

2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be s ...

ربما شكّلت نتائج الانتخابات الأمريكية مفاجأةً للعديد من المراقبين، حيث أظهرت العديد من الدروس المهمة حول التحولات الجديدة المرتبطة بإدارة الرأي العام وقدرة هذا الأخير على التعبير عن توجهاته بطرق قد تكون مدهشة، خاصة للمتخصصين في مجال ما يُطلَق عليه "علم اتجاهات الرأي العام" "، الذي يتسم بأساليب معقدة من الحيل والخدع والتضليل . وقد شكّل دونالد ترامب تحديًا كبيرًا أمام وسائل الإعلام، خصوصًا تلك التي تُحسب على التيار الديمقراطي والتي سعت جاهدة شيطنته وإقصاءه من المشهد الإعلامي. لكن، رغم ...

In September 2024, scientists at the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service  reported that summer 2024 was the hottest on record globally, and the previous twelve months posted a average global temperature that was a record 1.64 degrees Celsius (2.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above the average during the pre-industrial period, 1850-1900. This was triggered by a combination of a warmer El Niño cycle and the effects of human-caused warming. While it will take more years of such ...

This essay examines the implications of the new Trump administration’s ‘America First’ approach for multilateralism, particularly in the context of the Bretton Woods institutions and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its consequences for the New South. The first Trump administration’s selective multilateralism, marked by the prioritization of U.S. interests over global cooperation, contributed to a more fragmented global order. This was seen in the administration’s withdrawal ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterised by its diversity in political systems, economic conditions, and social structures. It is home to a mix of high-income countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as low-income and conflict-affected states like Yemen and Iraq. This diversity creates a complex environment for think tanks. Political instability in some areas, coupled with economic uncertainty, presents a challenging landsca ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi et Amazon.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transformations ...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in April 2022, in navigating the complexities of Yemen's ongoing civil conflict. The PLC was created to unite various anti-Houthi factions under a single governance framework, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and to steer Yemen toward peace and stability. However, the PLC has faced numerous obstacles, including internal divisions, resistance from ...

The evolving structure of international power—from the erosion of unipolarity to the emergence of multipolarity (though still susceptible to a scenario where multipolarity evolves into a new form of bipolarity)—is giving rise to various material and ideological factors that are steering global dynamics toward a new ‘regionalization of globalization’. The real opportunity lies in not just considering a new form of regionalism, but in focusing on the potential of a new kind of region: ...

The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implicati ...

From a realist perspective, during a period of rising multipolarity, the Atlantic Basin can be identified as an emerging geostrategic region and a potential focal point of geostrategic competition, especially in the Southern Atlantic, raising the sub-basin’s strategic significance and its potential strategic autonomy. The liberal perspective – although its highest goal might be a global multilateral order – has embraced regionalism before, under the bipolar international regime of t ...

In an era marked by shifting global dynamics, Africa and the Middle East are experiencing a profound transition from traditional geopolitics to a more nuanced geoeconomic framework. This evolution reflects the growing recognition that economic interests, rather than mere political allegiances, are driving international relations in these regions. The rise of emerging powers, particularly China and other Asian nations, has challenged the long-standing dominance of Western economies, ...

La dissolution de l’Assemblée nationale par le président Emmanuel Macron, le 9 juin 2024, a marqué un moment décisif dans l’histoire politique contemporaine de la France. Cette décision, prise dans un contexte de forte fragmentation politique, a des implications profondes pour la Ve République et ses fondements constitutionnels. Alors que la Constitution de 1958, avait été conçue pour garantir la stabilité d’un régime présidentiel fort, taillé par Michel Debré à la taille du général ...

In today’s world, sports have taken on a role traditionally held by religion, offering a deep sense of community, purpose, and identity to people. Its impact has been magnified by globalisation, digital technology, social media, and the rise of streaming platforms. These elements create a sense of immediacy and connection that transcends geographical boundaries. Consequently, sports have attained an unparalleled level of relevance and influence, capturing the hearts and minds of peo ...

This paper was originally published in idos-research.de   The early 1960s can be regarded as the “Big Bang” for international cooperation and development policy. The US was pushing an international system to support developing countries, and in 1961, it established the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The same year saw the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set up its Development Assistance Committee (DAC). Germany’s post-WWII engagement ...

D’édition en édition, le Rapport annuel de la Géopolitique de l’Afrique du Policy Center for the New South s’affirme en tant que référence pour le suivi et la compréhension des dynamiques du continent. Cette septième édition présente une Afrique montrant des motifs de satisfaction, dans certains domaines, et des raisons de préoccupation, dans d’autres. L'année 2023 a été marquée par des avancées notables, comme la tenue d'élections démocratiques réussies dans plusieurs pays. Cepend ...

Bientôt disponible en vente au Maroc sur Livremoi.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, une collaboration entre HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, représentent une plateforme d’analyse et d’échange biannuelle réunissant des experts, des praticiens, des décideurs politiques, ainsi que le monde universitaire et les médias au service d’une réflexion critique et approfondie sur les tendances politiques mondiales et sur une problématique d’intérêt rég ...

Le pluralisme médiatique reste une question ouverte que ravive l'actualité géopolitique internationale. Des initiatives réglementaires telles que l'European Media Freedom Act, en Europe, ou des procédures judiciaires, aux États-Unis, interpellant la responsabilité des plateformes en ligne, témoignent de la reconnaissance croissante des enjeux. Elles soulignent également la nécessité de réfléchir aux mécanismes qui favorisent ou entravent le pluralisme médiatique, surt ...

Le contexte de tensions géopolitiques accrues et rémanentes que connaît le monde depuis quelques années, marqué par la dégradation des relations entre les États-Unis et la Chine, l'escalade des tensions à Taïwan, et le conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, a engendré des répercussions majeures sur les politiques d'approvisionnement en minerais stratégiques et critiques de plusieurs États. Les récentes crises, notamment la pandémie de COVID-19 et le conflit en Ukraine, ...

Camila Crescimbeni is a 2023 alumna of Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program. Learn more about her here. Following a fruitful and broad debate at the 2023 Atlantic Dialogues, Alec Russell, foreign editor of the Financial Times, asked a deep and globally-relevant question: Can democracy survive 2024? With 70 states having elections this year, it is a fundamental question. After some decades of continuous expansion of democracy worldwide, as shown by the V-Dem Electoral Democra ...

The strategic significance of the southern Atlantic is growing, driven by two underlying dynamics. Firstly, we have seen the geostrategic capabilities of the southern Atlantic states and their inhabitants strengthen and the value of their strategic assets rise, despite lingering internal vulnerabilities and frequent instability, often caused by the northern Atlantic and, on occasion, Eurasia. Secondly, the way in which the southern Atlantic states are pursuing and exploiting the pot ...

In realist terms, the Southern Atlantic represents a natural partner for the powers of Eurasia—now grouped together in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)— especially for those that are, or could be, BRICS members. Pan-Atlantic cooperation is inherently of strategic interest to Eurasian countries because of its potential implications for the ultimate size of the BRICS Plus, for the degree of implication from its members in the Southern Atlantic, and for BRICS strategic goals ...

“According to realism, states exist within an anarchic international system in which they are ultimately dependent on their own capabilities, or power, to further their national interests. The most important national interest is the survival of the state, including its people, political system, and territorial integrity. Other major interests for realists include the preservation of a nation’s culture and economy. Realists contend that, as long as the world is divided into nation-st ...

في 6 أكتوبر 1973 تلقت السلطات الإسرائيلية تحذيرات عن احتمال اندلاع حرب على حدودها مع الدول العربية. هذا التحذير أكد المعلومات التي تم استلامها قبل بضعة أيام، ولكن أصحاب القرار السياسي والاستخبارات في اسرائيل لم يأخذوا الأمر على محمل الجد. حيث تعرضت إسرائيل لهجوم مفاجئ وعرف جيشها حالة من الهلع. وكانت الكارثة. خمسون عاما بعد ذلك، تقريبًا في نفس اليوم، فوجئت إسرائيل بهجوم جديد. في صباح 7 أكتوبر 2023، عبر مئات الرجال مسلحين الحاجز بين إسرائيل وقطاع غزة، انتشروا في أكثر من 20 مكانًا، قت ...

Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. Howev ...

On October 6, 1973, the Israeli authorities were warned of the imminent outbreak of war on their borders with the Arab states. This warning confirmed information received a few days previously, which Israeli political decision-makers and iintelligence services had not taken seriously. Israel was taken by surprise and its army panicked. It was a debacle. Fifty years later, almost to the day, Israel was once again taken by surprise. On the morning of October 7, 2023, hundreds of armed ...

The Atlantic area and its Afro-Atlantic seaboard are suffering the consequences of the global situation. We are witnessing a complex geopolitical game involving different strategies that have various processes, tactics, and objectives. The current situation reveals a paradoxical dynamic, which involves the Euro-Atlantic powers, extra- regional powers (China and Russia), and all the Afro-Atlantic countries. How is the power game organized in the Atlantic area? How does Africa9s Atlan ...

Le 6 octobre 1973, les autorités israéliennes ont été averties de l’éclatement imminent d’une guerre à leurs frontières avec les États arabes. Cet avertissement confirmait les informations reçues quelques jours auparavant, mais que les décideurs politiques et le Renseignement israéliens n’avaient pas pris au sérieux. Israël est pris par surprise et son armée est en panique. C’est la débâcle. Cinquante ans plus tard, quasiment jour pour jour, l’État hébreux est enco ...

The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to ...

Like many countries of the Global South, South Africa espouses an independent, non-aligned approach to foreign policy. This approach has been criticized during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as a superficial excuse to be ‘soft’ on Russia. Deeper reflection and analysis however, points to a finely calibrated multi-alignment strategy, which allows South Africa to secure its national interests while carefully balancing relations with the United States (U.S.), European Union (EU) and ot ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi.   En présentant ces textes, publiés dans les plateformes du Policy Center for the New South, pour partie, et dans divers supports, pour l’autre, on découvre à leur lecture des sujets absents des sciences sociales nationales. Le premier défi que doit surmonter le chercheur marocain qui s’intéresse aux affaires militaires et de sécurité (AMS) est la sous-conceptualisation du domaine en raison du désintérêt des universités et du c ...

Le Mozambique fait face depuis 2017 à une insurrection menée dans la province de Cabo Delgado, au nord-est du pays, par un groupe militant islamiste dénommé Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa (ASWJ) – qui aurait fait allégeance à l’État islamique (EI) et qui est aussi connu sous le nom de Al Shabab, sans lien avec le groupe éponyme en Somalie. Les problèmes sociaux et économiques de cette région – qui concentre la plus grande partie des 18 % de musulmans que compte le pays, à majorité chrétienne ...

Cette 6ème édition du rapport géopolitique de l’Afrique s’inscrit dans la même ligne éditoriale que ses précédentes. Elle se veut une plateforme où des auteurs et analystes africains racontent l’Afrique géopolitique de 2022 en débordant parfois sur les événements saillants du début de 2023. Ce moment, d’environ une année et demie, ne peut échapper à la guerre en Ukraine comme toile de fond du monde. Même lorsque les auteurs ne s’y réfèrent pas explicitement, cett ...