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Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input–output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19
Authors
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
Fernando S. Perobelli
Inácio F. Araújo
Karina S. S. Bugarin
December 14, 2020
Related topics: 
Economy
Sectorial policies and structural transformation
Society
Health

This paper explores the use of simulations in policy decision-making in the Brazilian State of São Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a methodology for assessing the daily economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of coronavirus. The method is based on the partial hypothetical extraction approach to input–output systems. Simulated daily scenarios based on different levels of compliance to the control measures are used to help guide the design of sectoral and territorial-based policies to ease lockdown against the coronavirus outbreak, taking into account the economic and sanitary trade-offs. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top-level decision-making.

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