Oil

The energy sector has undergone major transitions from the use of wood as a dominant fuel to the adoption of coal and, more recently, oil. In the 21st century gas has grown faster than any other fossil fuel and today renewable energy is growing even faster. The changes, combined with volatile energy prices and occasional shocks, create complex scenarios for the future of the energy sector. This has numerous implications, not only for the socio-economic development of NATO’s southern ...

Our senior fellow, Otaviano Canuto, has contributed to Science Direct academic Journal, with a research paper entitled « Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital? », Volume 88, May 2020, 104760. This paper assesses the effect of oil revenues on health and education indicators (measures for human capital) in the Brazilian municipalities using exogenous oil price variations. The Oil Law of 1997, apart from to hugely increase the amoun ...

Les cours des matières premières ont, une fois encore, été marqués par une importante volatilité en 2017 et 2018. Si de nombreux facteurs économiques permettent de l’expliquer, la raison politique fut également bien présente. Les Annual Report tensions commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis on Commodity et, plus globalement, la montée des incertitudes ont pesé Analytics and sur les perspectives macroéconomiques mondiales et sur Dynamics « le dynamisme des marchés ». Comptant ...

Donald Trump finally has met a strongman he does not like. After making friends with authoritarian figures around the world, in Beijing, Budapest and Moscow, Ankara, Riyadh, Cairo and Manila or Jerusalem .He even fell in love with Kim Jong un, the dictator in North Korea, who’ s self righteousness borders the pathological narcissism of Donald Trump, who doesn’t mind that his love had his uncle executed and his brother poisoned. Trump is not wavering in the defense of Mohamed bin Sal ...

Rentier state theory grew out of an attempt to understand political development in the oil-rich states of the Middle East. The framework has since been applied to understand the politics of resource-rich countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa, with proponents arguing that rentier states tend to suffer from poor governance because state officials use “unearned income” to avoid institution-building and to suppress calls for democracy. This Policy Brief will discuss whether a fram ...

There are various definitions of Energy Security (ES) and numerous ways of understanding the concept. For this blog’s purpose, we will choose the familiar understanding of the latter as put forward by the George W. Bush Administration, i.e. it represents a situation where four characteristics are met, an energy supply that is: (1) Reliable (2) affordable (3) environmentally sound and (4) accessible.  Thus, ES represents the situation where there’s availability of energy at all time ...

The launch of an oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) cannot be merely seen as a “technical” or secondary event, as it foreshadows what global commodities markets will become in a few years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) have, indeed, seen their trading volumes increase significantly over the past decade thanks to steel and iron ore, which could suggest that the move is, in fact, not that unprecedente ...

Commodities are at the very heart of economic activity. From oil to wheat, from aluminum to coffee or rubber, we are all, in one way or another and to varying degrees, dependent on commodities. Different in terms of their physical properties but governed by common economic mechanisms, traded on global and oligopolistic markets, subject to intense competitive pressures and speculative bets, often marked by highly volatile prices, objects of geopolitical rivalries or cooperatives stra ...

Understanding the commodity markets development and dynamics is of first-order importance for the global economy, since they seem to impact the determination of a significant portion of incomes and welfare of both commodity-consuming and commodity-producing nations. Indeed, for many economies, especially developing countries, commodities remain an important source of export earnings, and commodity price volatility has a major impact on their overall macroeconomic performance. Conseq ...

En juin 2017 est paru le deuxième rapport Arcadia (Annual Report on Commodity Analytics and Dynamics In Africa), fruit de la collaboration entre l’OCP Policy Center et CyclOpe. Son ambition est de rendre compte, année après année, de l’évolution des liens économiques, juridiques, financiers et sociétaux qui unissent l’Afrique et les marchés mondiaux de matières premières et ce, tant au regard des évolutions conjoncturelles des marchés que des mutations ou ruptures structurelles qui ...

In June 2017, the second Annual Report on Commodity Analytics and Dynamics In Africa (Arcadia report) was published, in collaboration between the OCP Policy Center and CyclOpe. Its aim is to annually report on the evolution of the economic, legal, financial and societal links between Africa and the world commodity markets, both with regard to the cyclical changes in the markets, and to the structural changes or failures that may have emerged. Focusing on 2016 and early 2017, the Arc ...

Emerging economies started playing a more predominant role in the international agenda. Finance and defence, which were the major determinants of the global chessboard until the end of the Cold War, though still relevant, should give room to other essential elements to secure growth and prosperity. Energy security is of quintessential importance in this new world order. ...

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With these words Charles Dickens opens his novel “A Tale of Two Cities”. Winners and losers in a “tale of two commodities” may one day look back with similar reflections, as prices of metals and oil have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks, months and years. This blog seeks to explain how demand — but also supply and financial market conditions — are affecting metals prices. We will show some contrast with oil, where suppl ...

1970s : Oil and wheat are strategic commodities, their prices are skyrocketing, Arab countries declare an oil boycott against the US and the US contemplates to retaliate with a grain embargo. Gulf countries are alarmed and look into a plan to develop Sudan as an Arab breadbasket.  This plan, however, unravels by the 1980s amidst political instability, misguided project designs and alleged corruption amongst the Sudanese (Nimeiri) regime. Instead, Saudi Arabia embarks on a subsidize ...

L'appétit des pétroliers pour l'Afrique de l'Est a bien changé depuis 2006, où les premières découvertes en Ouganda ont été mises au jour. Il reste cependant encore difficile, pour un grand nombre d'investisseurs qui s'intéressent à cette région, d'appréhender l'ampleur du phénomène. Cette note permettra notamment de revenir sur la localisation des réserves, leurs volumes, le moment où elles seront développées, ce à quoi elles serviront et les freins à leur développement. Outre l'Ou ...

The position of oil companies toward East Africa has changed considerably since 2006 when the first reserves in Uganda came to light. However, for many investors interested in the region, it remains difficult to get a clear picture of the scale of developments of this sector. This paper will discuss the locations of reserves, their volumes, when they will be developed, what they will be used for, and possible impediments to their development. In addition to Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania a ...