Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
Read more
Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
Authors
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
J. A. León
M. Ordaz
I. F. Araújo
May 30, 2022
Related topics: 
Economy

This Paper was originally published on nature.com

 

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    Tunisie : la démocratie à l’épreuve de la crise de la IIème République
    Authors
    Abdessalam Saad Jaldi
    February 10, 2022
    La crise de la IIème République tunisienne exacerbe l’incapacité des institutions de représentation démocratique à prendre en compte les demandes socio-économiques populaires, à l’origine de la « révolution de 2011 ». Conçue dans l’objectif de rompre avec l’ancien régime bénalien, la IIème République a permis de doter la Tunisie des infrastructures politiques et institutionnelles nécessaires, lui permettant d’encadrer ses libertés, tout en définissant son régime démocratique. Or, l’ ...
  • Download PDF
    The Socio-Economic and Political Dynamics Around Migration in Morocco
    Authors
    Amal El Ouassif
    February 9, 2022
    The geographic position of Morocco and its history makes it a strategic country when it comes to matters of international migration. Having long been considered as a country of origin, the fast paced growing development of Morocco soon brought it from being merely a sending country to becoming a transit and destination to migrants from other parts of Africa. This change in the migratory context of Morocco has led to the adoption of a series of policies and governmental actions to ta ...
  • Download PDF
    The Energy Crisis of 2021 and its Implications for Africa
    Authors
    Rim Berahab
    February 9, 2022
    Energy markets have experienced significant disruptions since the outbreak of COVID-19. In late 2021, soaring natural gas prices triggered a new crisis, leading to risks of energy supply shortages worldwide and propelling the issue of energy security to the forefront. Africa will not be spared the repercussions of this crisis, which could further increase energy inequality, which is in turn linked to other forms of inequality. Indeed, in a context of persistent inflation, the lack o ...
  • COVID-19 & Developing Countries—the Road to Recovery
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    February 3, 2022
    COVID-19 has ravaged nearly every country in the world, with the globalization of recent decades intensifying its spread. As of mid-2021, the world had spent $16.5 trillion—18% of global GDP—to fight the disease. And that amount does not even include the most important losses such as deaths, mental health effects, restrictions on human freedom, and other nonmonetary suffering. Nearly 90% of this spending was by developed economies, with the rest by emerging market and developing eco ...
  • Download PDF
    Trade and Youth Labor Market Outcomes: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications
    Authors
    Mina Baliamoune
    February 1, 2022
    We examine the effects of trade on youth labor force participation and unemployment rates by performing fixed-effects and Arellano-Bond GMM estimations on data from 89 developing and emerging economies from 1990 to 2018. The empirical results suggest that trade openness has U-shaped effects on youth labor force participation rates, with negative impacts at low-to-moderate levels of trade and positive but minor effects at relatively high levels of trade. Except for Latin America, the ...
  • Argentina Avoids Falling into Arrears with the IMF
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    January 31, 2022
    On January 28, both Argentina’s government and the International Monetary Fund staff made announcements about an understanding on new support program. Meanwhile, in addition to the payment of an amortization due on January 28, another payment is also expected in the first week of February. Both payments relate to the previous package, approved in 2018 and substantially disbursed thereafter. Non-payment could sour relations at a critical moment for a new program to be approved by the ...
  • How Can Data Collection Help Inclusive Green Finance?
    Authors
    Morten Seja*
    Charlie Knight
    Hadley Hilgenhurst
    Amlan Banerjee
    Omair Azam
    January 31, 2022
    Setting the Scene for the Current State of Inclusive Green Finance Climate change is one of, if not the biggest, challenges facing the world. The challenge extends to banking regulators, who, in addition to other responsibilities, are now tasked with ensuring financial inclusion and climate change mitigation. However, central banks realizing how important inclusion and climate change are is only the first step. As part of this process, they need to understand how to define Inclusiv ...
  • Download PDF
    Innovation in Africa: Nature and Evidence
    Authors
    Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
    January 31, 2022
    According to the Oslo Manual, innovation can be defined as “the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method or a new organisational method in business practices, workplace organisations or external relations” (OECD, 2005, p. 46). For today’s middle-income countries in Africa, innovation is essential to sustain growth and promote the transition to high-income status. This paper begins by providing a summary of theore ...
  • Will emerging economies face a hard landing?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    January 26, 2022
    The year began with simultaneous signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and a reorientation toward tightening of monetary policies in advanced economies. In its latest Global Economic Prospects released on January 11, the World Bank forecasts that, after a global growth surprisingly at 5.5% last year, it should moderate to somewhere around 4.1% and 3.2%. % in, respectively, 2022 and 2023. In addition to the effects of omicron at the start of the year, less fiscal support and ...