Publications /
Research Paper

Back
Download PDF
Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: Regional and Global Factors
Authors
Zouhair Aït Benhamou
March 2, 2016
Related topics: 
Economy
Macroeconomics and regulation
Africa
Asia

Discrepancies in output fluctuations between emerging and developed economies are well documented in the literature. Differences however within developing economies have not been sufficiently scrutinised. This paper argues that global and regional shocks primarily drive the business cycle in emerging economies, and provides estimated results for cycle variance decomposition. The paper also offers a theoretical framework to check on the set of stylized facts common and specific to emerging economies. It finds that the proposed model is robust in accounting for region-specific features.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Whither China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    January 2, 2024
    The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by Xi Jinping, passed its tenth anniversary in 2023. It has entered a third phase. The initiative added a label to China’s financing and construction of infrastructure abroad, which had already totaled more than $400 billion in the previous 10 years. In addition to the use of investment projects as part of Chinese ‘soft power’, the BRI has served to increase levels of usage of the country’s excess installed capacity. China’s economic re ...
  • Debt from a Southern Perspective
    Akram Zaoui & Anahi Wiedenbrüg
    November 24, 2023
    Debt in the Global South was a key point of discussion during the last annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund which took place in Marrakesh on October 2023. Whi ...
  • Download PDF
    The Dollar-Renminbi Tango: The Impacts of Argentina’s Potential Dollarization on its Relations with China
    Authors
    Xiaofeng Wang
    Otaviano Canuto
    October 13, 2023
    The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap l ...
  • Download PDF
    Inflation targeting and public debt reduction for emerging countries: a treatment effect approach
    Authors
    Mahmoud Arbouch
    May 11, 2023
    This paper aims to investigate the impact of an inflation targeting framework adoption by the central bank, on the reduction of public debt ratios in emerging countries, through the potential discipline-enhancing effect of inflation targeting on the conduct of fiscal policy in general. The impact evaluation method used is the Propensity Score Matching (PSM), which allows the evaluation of the treatment effect of inflation targeting on fiscal discipline, in terms of public debt reduc ...
  • Download PDF
    Ciblage de l’inflation et réduction de la dette publique pour les pays émergents : une approche par effet de traitement
    Authors
    Mahmoud Arbouch
    December 30, 2022
    L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement ...
  • Download PDF
    Whither China’s Economic Growth
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    August 24, 2022
    Chinese economic figures released since August’s beginning have shown a slowdown in its growth. New Omicron coronavirus outbreaks in the context of the Covid-zero policy, the housing slump and heat waves have been, decelerating the economy’s pace. China’s current growth slowdown is an additional step in the trajectory of gradually declining rates that has accompanied the “great rebalancing” since the beginning of the 2010s. One significant difference now is the perception of exhaust ...
  • Download PDF
    Covid-19 and the Fiscal Space of Developing Countries
    Authors
    Hinh T. Dinh
    December 6, 2021
    Between January 2020 and June 2021, the world spent about US $16.5 trillion (18% of world GDP) to fight COVID-19, and this amount does not even include the most important losses such as deaths, mental health effects, restrictions on human freedom, and other nonmonetary suffering. Nearly 90% of this amount was spent by developed economies; the rest by emerging market and developing economies. Low-income countries spent just US $12.5 billion, or less than 0.0001% of the total. Moreove ...
  • Could the U.S. and China Spoil Latin America’s Rebound?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    November 5, 2021
    A slowdown in China and winding down of U.S. stimulus threaten a much-needed regional rebound. First appeared at Americas Quarterly The last year has seen some good news for Latin American economies. The region’s recovery has been stronger than expected, and growth forecasts by the World Bank and IMF have improved since six months ago. Vaccination campaigns and fiscal support have sparked an economic rebound since the second half of last year, despite an apparent loss of momentum ...
  • The Vaccine, the Economy, and Governance
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 30, 2020
    According to this month’s OECD economic outlook, global GDP --- which took a huge hit from the pandemic and is still 3% below its level of a year ago – will not recover its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021. In a downside scenario, the return could take almost a year longer. The OECD predictions, which imply high and protracted unemployment, are in line with the view of many other official and private organizations. The arrival of effective vaccines such as Pfizer-BioNTech wa ...
  • Why a Weaker Dollar Might Be Good for Emerging Markets?
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    December 22, 2020
    After reaching a peak against other currencies in March this year, the dollar fell by almost 15% until the beginning of December. According to Bloomberg, asset portfolio managers have been assuming "short" positions against the dollar, that is, betting on its fall ahead. The dollar is expected to devalue against the euro, the yen, and the Chinese RMB in 2021. The peak last March, during the coronavirus financial shock, reflected the search for a safe haven in short-term US bonds or ...