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Breaking Bonds, Forging Alliances
On January 28, 2024, the military leaders of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso declared their joint intention to exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), presenting three substantial criticisms against the regional organization. Their foremost claimed grievance was that ECOWAS has departed from its foundational vision, implying that foreign influences have diverted the regional organization from its essential values to the detriment of the welfare of its member states and their populations. The three Sahelian nations also reproached ECOWAS for providing insufficient support in their existential struggles against terrorism and instability, emphasizing their relentless efforts to neutralize jihadist factions responsible for considerable loss of life and the displacement of millions of their people. The countries also voiced discontent with ECOWAS’s reaction to their autonomous measures to navigate their predicaments, calling the bloc’s sanctions unfair and a contravention of its statutes. The countries maintained that such sanctions have merely intensified the hardship of communities already beset by sustained conflict.
This withdrawal announcement marks a critical juncture, potentially affecting diplomatic, security, and economic relationships within West Africa. This situation poses a challenge to the nearly five-decade-long project to realize a unified regional market, enable economic collaboration, and present a united front against security threats, including jihadist insurgency and organized crime.
In a noteworthy move towards reshaping regional cooperation and integration within the Sahel, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso founded the Alliance of Sahel States through the Liptako-Gourma charter on September 16, 2023. This formation marked a significant deviation from past initiatives. It aims not only at collective defense but also for deeper and more integrated confederation among the three states. This new paradigm of integration aims to exceed previous collaboration efforts, progressing towards a more robust relationship that could evolve into a confederal framework.
In fact, the ministers of the Alliance of Sahel States have reached an agreement on establishing a confederation, which, by definition, is a union of independent states that, through one or more treaties, delegate the exercise of certain powers to common bodies designed to coordinate their policies in various fields, without, however, constituting a new state above the member states. Unlike a federation, a confederation, in principle, respects the sovereignty of its members under international law.
Moreover, there is a broader regional concern that the democratic integrity of neighboring states could be compromised by coups or the rise of anti-Western populism, reflecting a general apprehension about potential instability. Should ECOWAS fail to reconcile with these states, it will be imperative to seek alternative arrangements that accommodate shared goals.
This will entail negotiating a measured withdrawal with the countries of the Alliance of Sahelian States, concentrating on peaceful cohabitation and establishing clear protocols for the transition of ECOWAS agencies. It will require the implementation of safeguards for the rights of citizens in both the new alliance and the remaining ECOWAS, ensuring freedom of movement, work, and residence, while preventing widespread expulsions. Adopting such measures could alleviate the negative impacts of the rift on regional security and economic stability, highlighting the significance of ongoing dialogue and cooperation in managing the complexities of this regional shift.
Governance Challenges Amid Uncertainty
The initiative for a confederation of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso aims to address the complex challenges and shared objectives within the Sahel, moving beyond political strategy to a commitment rooted in collective governance. This effort towards a structured but not fully unified confederation draws on the principle of joint governance, marking a significant step in consolidating their cooperative endeavors.
However, this bold initiative needs a rigorous evaluation of its feasibility and timing, as detailed in our recent Policy Brief entitled “From the Alliance of Sahel States to the Confederation of Sahel States: the road is clear, but full of pitfalls”. Questions arise about the readiness of this effort to create a confederation, in the context of the current political, economic, and security situations of the participating nations. The Policy Brief examines the underlying motives behind this integration effort and evaluates the likelihood that the alliance's momentum will be maintained. On the other hand, potential obstacles—ranging from security disruptions to economic and political volatility—could hinder the alliance's progress, bringing its feasibility into question.
The Sahel is experiencing profound political shifts, further complicated by ongoing threats of violent extremism, political turmoil, and internal conflicts. The jihadist peril remains primarily in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, but also threatens other West African countries. For instance, Benin has faced several attacks in its northern region. The expansion of these groups suggests their intention is to spread to coastal nations as well. The anticipated departures of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS raises alarms about the spread of jihadism and political instability across West Africa. Such a move could amplify risks for migrants from these nations in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal, and could disrupt critical economic ties throughout the region. The Alliance of Sahelian States Charter, given the common factors of these states beyond geographical proximity, does not rule out new memberships from countries facing similar situations.
The transition to a confederation should be analyzed through a comprehensive lens. Diplomatically, it requires careful negotiations to ensure the project's feasibility and success, seeking to prevent regional tensions. Economically, the effort demands the unification of the three nations' economies through consistent fiscal policies, trade regulations, and infrastructure improvements. Politically, it involves garnering support within each country, possibly through extensive public involvement, debates, and reforms. From a security standpoint, enhancing military cooperation and defense strategies among the countries is vital. Culturally and socially, promoting exchanges among their citizens could foster a sense of shared identity and collective support.
The leadership and people of these states are propelled by a blend of economic necessity, political aspirations, and an urgent quest for regional stability. With their economies among the world's least developed, the confederation represents a strategic pathway to leverage collective strengths, aiming to transcend poverty and foster economic resilience.
Finally, will these states ultimately manage to jointly mobilize, pool their resources, and confront their situations, to ensure that this organization withstands challenges and does not dissolve, considering the limited support available?
