Publications /
Opinion

Back
Ready for the long haul
Authors
November 10, 2021

Olaf Scholz had no time to enjoy the beauty of the Canale Grande-one of the most treasured tourist sights on the globe. In July of this year, during his first visit to Venice ever, the 63 years old ambitious German politician was not drawn to the historical wonders or the fine architecture the city offers. In the center of the city's esthetical grandeur, the German Minister of Finance and Vice-Chancellor of Angela Merkel's government practiced what he enjoys most: politics, his passion since high school days. An early leftist who moved towards the more conservative wing of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), a party led by political luminaries such as Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt.

On this balmy summer weekend, Scholz stood for three hours on the edge of the canale fielding questions from journalists about the upcoming federal elections in Germany, instead of enjoying the gondoliers or Vaporetto steering through traffic on the waterway and or even reflecting deeply about the G20 Finance ministers meeting. "It has been a long march through the election campaign details and global politics", noted a Der Spiegel reporter (September 3, 2021) "and he never once wavered; he weathered all criticism and demonstrated how tremendously knowledgeable he is. It was a performance worthy of Merkel."

Three years into the Merkel led coalition (center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and left-leaning SPD, Scholz, a lawyer who specialized in business law, had to deal with catastrophic opinion polls for his party. In December 2020, the approval rating for the SPD was about 11%. Scholz had to convince his SPD that he was the right chancellor candidate to lead the social democrat's unlikely comeback. The same party members had rejected his attempt in 2019 to be elected as the party leader. Instead, the party chose two unknown leftists- a tremendous dent to his ego. Scholz "has really never been popular within his party", stated Deutsche Welle (September 27, 2021). Neither his rejection nor the depressing figures of his party's standing among German voters apparently dampened the Scholz spirit nor optimism; he was "in it for the long haul", the "marathon".

Scholz, reported Sabine Kinkartz in Deutsche Welle (September 13, 2021)," displays unshakeable  confidence and has weathered  many a storm in his political career." Scholz's experience extends beyond merely having a seat at the cabinet table of the Merkel government," reminded Der Spiegel (September 27, 2021). For seven years, he served as Hamburg's Mayor, a city of 1.8 million people, used to a rather conservative/elegant lifestyle, the Northern German town covered with lakes, well-maintained parks and the river Elbe, which feeds one of Europe's largest container harbor's. Scholz did not decorate cocktail parties through his presence, nor provoke headlines with his private life. Conservative, Discreet, guarded.  In 2002 when Scholz was the Labor minister in the ”SPD government of Gerhard Schroeder, he took the reins of the Hamburg chapter of the SPD. Der Spiegel” wrote, "it was divided and riven by trench warfare. He promised leadership, and he delivered. Sometimes with a heavy hand."

The former mayor of Hamburg is married to a regional politician, Britta Erns; they do not have children. From nowhere to 25.7% - Scholz the victor without an absolute majority. The robot, as opponents named him, is ready to rule. When, on September 26, he was facing the TV cameras to react to the impressive election result, Scholz sipped half a glass of beer, his wife applauded, and then he said:" We will now wait for the official result to get to work." Negotiations with the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP, which reached 11.5% of the vote), the Green Party (14.8%) are in process, intense, discreet, and hardly any leaks to the media about the  dealings for policies and cabinet seats, influence and profile.  Greens and Liberals will most probably join a government coalition, ready to offer concessions for four years of power. The next elections are scheduled for Sunday, October 26, 2025.  The conservatives are condemned to opposition, in disarray and uncertain about their future leader or a new, modern approach to their conservative philosophy.  Angela Merkel will retire. “Never before”, reported Der Spiegel, "have the conservatives received less than 31% of the vote”.

Indeed, in the previous 19 Federal elections held since world war II, reminded the newsmagazine, “the Union won more than 40% of the vote, and often significantly more- on 13 occasions…. The scenario which unfolded on Sunday night (election day) reveals the accurate dimensions of this election: Germany is entering uncharted territory. What used to be a two or three-party system has morphed into a six-or even seven-party system. After a long period of infirmity, the era of the big tent political parties is drawing to a close. A coalition government with at least three partners will become the new normal. "Three of the four national governments Angela Merkel led were a partnership with the Social Democrats, the so-called Grosse Koalition, which, for now, is history.

"You Angela, me Merkel."

The rude result for the conservatives was amplified by the news that Merkel's parliamentarian seat, which she held, before retiring, for 31 years, was won by an opponent, an SPD candidate. Scholz and Scholz, once again Scholz dominated TV debates, his photo scattered all over the land, spreading the message to the people, "Respekt Fuer Dich" (respect for you). Somehow the pragmatist managed to revive his almost lifeless, left-wing led Social Democratic party within just a few months without charisma. No Obama like vibrations and enthusiasm. "It is the victory of a career politician", stated Der Spiegel (September 27, 2021), a professional in the stormy waters of Berlin. That, too, came as a surprise, after all that talk for a different style of politics. But the case of Donald Trump showed that a different kind of politics isn't necessarily better. Furthermore, the coronavirus pandemic made it clear to the voters that catastrophe can strike at any moment.

Experience and reliability in the Chancellery is a comfort, which provided a boost in the Scholz campaign. As finance minister, "Scholz has been in a good place to shine in the Coronavirus crisis", confirms the Deutsche Welle (September 15, 2021): as finance minister, he is in charge of distributing billions of euros in emergency funds to help the economy and the citizens weather the storm. In a crisis, pragmatism trumps over charisma, which has played into the 63 years old hands." Scholz positioned himself as a pragmatist and a safe pair of hands", observed CNN analyst Ivana Kottasova (September 27, 2021)."His political style is not dissimilar to that of Merkel-the two are alike in many ways, despite hailing from different parties." Just imagine another country, France for example, Italy, The US! Would any of their defeated leaders invite the opponent to accompany him (or her) to the next G20 meeting in Rome, late October? It just happened: Angela Merkel offered her Finance minister to join her for the G20 in Rome, introducing Scholz to is future colleagues, including Joe Biden, who chatted with Merkel and Scholz for 15 minutes. Mind you: the negotiations about the coalition have not yet been concluded, and Scholz has not been approved by the German parliament yet. He is a chancellor in waiting.

For Scholz, it seemed inevitable the people wanted someone like Merkel. In other words, advanced Der Spiegel, himself. He has always been convinced of that – with iron confidence that seemed almost quixotic in the face of depressing poll numbers. "In other words: succeeding Angela Merkel by emulating her, as the Hamburg based magazine speculated, Scholz, trying to turn into a clone of his predecessor to be." You Angela, me Merkel". Scholz "comes across as calm, measured, steady", said Corinna Hoerst, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussel. Both, analyzed Der Spiegel, "are considered level headed and disciplined, and their even-keel seems to be their greatest similarity. When it comes to setting policy, Merkel and Scholz have a more intellectual than emotional approach."

 Until the political rivals have concluded negotiations and secured the needed votes for a parliamentarian majority, Angela Merkel is managing the German affairs for the last time; "by the length of her reign", observed Rafael Behr in London's Guardian (September 21, 2021), "Merkel has acquired something like regal status not just in Germany, but across Europe. She has been an anchor of continuity in an age of extraordinary volatility. She has helped navigate the EU through cascading crises, usually with tactical patches that defer hard strategic choices. The wits of that technique and whether it can continue without Merkel's authority are disputed on the continent."

For Der Spiegel, Scholz seems seasoned enough to inherit Merkel's office:" Both are consummate professionals, experienced career politicians, who almost always come across as confident, thus giving people a sense of security. Above all, this is what Scholz is (was) counting on in his election campaign: with me in the Chancellery, you'll be able to sleep just as well as you did under Merkel." 25.7% of the voters trusted him; now Olaf Scholz needs to convince the green and the liberal leaders that he will not cause Germany sleepless nights. It may take a few weeks more until Angela Merkel can leave her office. Most likely she will be liberated from politics before Christmas, ready to ski in the alps, hardly a bodyguard and no reporters disturbing her vacation. Just a paparazzi or two.

 

The opinions expressed in this article belong to the author.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    July 4, 2018
    “NONE OF AFRICA’S PROBLEMS CAN BE RESOLVED THROUGH MILITARY FORCE” Colonel Raul Rivas arrived in dress uniform, his parachute citations well polished. His ribbons for bravery and combat duty were aligned at the upper left-hand side of his jacket, a colorful display of combat, death and battles in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The Colonel, just a few years above 40, and despite his 21 years in the military, was as “proud of being an American as one can be,” a true patriot. He jumped out ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    May 31, 2018
    What are the best ways forward to enhance the capacity, increase the impact, and ensure the long term viability of think tanks in Africa? These questions have been debated during the 2nd edition of African Think Tank Summit (ATTS) held in Rabat from May 9th to May 11th.  The African think tanks have positively evolved over the years in order to respond to the specific needs of their different countries. They operate as platforms to share knowledge and train young leaders, with some ...
  • Authors
    May 10, 2018
    These days, the word "crisis" is gaining a new urgency around the globe… Crisis of humanity, of water, hunger, poverty, climate. Crisis of war, destruction, terrorism. And a crisis of thought, intellectual exchange, theories transfered into reality. And a crisis of think tanks, eventually, although their work matters, since it sends signals, offers proposals and applicable solutions.  In that context, Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria and Board member of the Africa Pro ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    April 13, 2018
    L’avenir de l’Inde a fait débat le 11 avril en présence de 110 personnes, lors des 5èmes Dialogues stratégiques, une rencontre biannuelle organisée à Paris par l’OCP Policy Center et le Centre HEC de géopolitique.  En 2050, l’Inde comptera 17 % de la population globale et aura le troisième PIB mondial. « Le ralentissement de la croissance en Chine n’occultera peut-être plus l’essor de cette grande démocratie », a noté Jacques Gravereau, président du HEC Eurasia Institute. Soulignan ...
  • Authors
    Jeremy Guez
    Pascal Chaigneau
    Capitaine Marianne Peron Doise
    Rodolphe Monnet
    Philippe Tauzin
    Florent Parmentier
    April 10, 2018
    L’année 2018 peut être marquée par le signe de l’incertitude. Au niveau géopolitique, l’élection de Donald Trump a chamboulé la perception des États Unis de par le monde et remis en question l’ordre international par la renégociation des accords internationaux et par un retour vers un protectionnisme américain jugé dangereux par le partenaire historique européen. En première partie de cet ouvrage, Les auteurs s’interroge sur les paradoxes de la politique américaine et de l’impact de ...
  • Authors
    March 15, 2018
    « Revise, Reboot, Rebuild : Strategies for a time of Distrust »: that was this year’s theme for the Brussels Forum, a yearly high-level conference held from March 8th to 10th by the US think tank German Marshall Fund (GMF), partner of the OCP Policy Center who attended the event through its delegation. This meeting of some 400 policymakers, academics and private sector operators is reviewing the relationship between Europe and the United States. Brexit, the Trump administration, the ...
  • Authors
    Alice Ekman
    February 22, 2018
    La présence chinoise en Méditerranée fait l’objet d’interrogations croissantes au sein des diplomaties des pays du Maghreb comme d’Europe du Sud. En effet, ces cinq dernières années, la Chine décline avec un activisme croissant ses priorités nationales à l’échelle méditerranéenne. Cet activisme peut se résumer en trois axes principaux : création de forums de coopération sectorielle Chine-Europe du Sud, investissements dans les infrastructures de transport, énergétiques et de télécom ...
  • July 21, 2017
    La decisión del 15 de junio de 2017 del Tribunal Supremo de Sudáfrica, ordenando mantener el embargo del cargamento del fosfato marroquí con destino a Nueva Zelanda y remitir el caso a un juicio sobre el fondo, plantea tanto la cuestión de la capacidad del Polisario para entablar una acción ante una jurisdicción internacional como la de la independencia de la justicia Sudafricana en relación a las posiciones adoptadas por el gobierno de dicho país. ...