Geopolitics

In this policy paper – Part 3 of our ongoing analysis – we address the Iran War and its implications for the evolution of the international system in its denouement from the clash between “Restoration”, on the one hand, and “Reformation” or “Revolution”, on the other (see our previous policy paper for a summary and analysis of Andrey Kortunov’s scenarios for the future of the international system). These rival global dynamics are faced off in this moment across the Strait of Hormuz ...

“The emerging global disorder could present an opportunity for Africa. With the right long-term perspective, African countries will be well positioned to take advantage of some of the opportunities that arise from the new geoeconomic reality.”Gedion Timothewos (Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs Minister) ...

Le 30 octobre 2026, le mandat de la Minurso a expiré et n’a pas été renouvelé. La raison : un projet américain, pourtant appuyé par 11 membres du Conseil de sécurité, auquel la Russie a opposé son veto, suivi d’un projet russe qui n’a pu recueillir que trois voix en sa faveur, sur lequel les États-Unis ont émis un vote négatif.Cette impasse révèle deux conceptions opposées du règlement. Washington entend recentrer le processus sur l’initiative marocaine d’autonomie et adapter progre ...

Brazil’s presidential election, which concluded on October 25, 2026, was above all a digital battle. This is nothing new; the impact of social media on elections has been widely analyzed since Barack Obama's 2008 win marked a turning point for digital campaigning worldwide. Almost two decades later, social media is an entirely different breed, with a life of its own – and still very little regulation within electoral politics. The danger, however, is that digital players now also in ...

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory brings to an end one of the most closely contested elections in Brazil’s recent history. Before any broader analysis, however, a qualification is necessary. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s controversial decision to extend voting hours sparked debate over the electoral process. Although the measure was not mathematically decisive in Lula’s come-from-behind victory, the episode risks fuelling challenges to the result and further eroding poli ...

Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the ...

Bientôt disponible en vente. Cet ouvrage est issu de la 20e édition des Dialogues Stratégiques, organisée le 6 mai 2026. Il s’articule autour de deux thématiques : « Souverainetés critiques : sécuriser les infrastructures essentielles et les ressources stratégiques » et « La Méditerranée : entre coopération régionale et rivalités globales ». La première partie examine les conditions dans lesquelles les États peuvent protéger leurs infrastructures et maitriser leur accès au ...

Strategic hedging is rational when it preserves a worthwhile choice at a tolerable cost while respecting existing commitments. Drawing on the literature on hedging and Latin American autonomy, this Policy Brief examines contrasting illustrations of that proposition. It distinguishes ambiguity about future alignment from uncertainty about existing obligations and explains how clearly bounded commitments can reconcile autonomy with credibility. The cases reveal different vulnerabiliti ...

In October 2026, Brazil will elect its president. It will also renew the entire lower legislative chamber and two-thirds of the upper chamber, elect governors in all states, and renew state legislatures. What will be the impact of these elections nationally, regionally, and internationally? Who are the main presidential candidates, and what are their agendas? What are the main challenges facing Brazil over the coming years? These are the questions that this Policy Brief seeks to ans ...