Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
Read more
Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
Authors
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
J. A. León
M. Ordaz
I. F. Araújo
May 30, 2022
Related topics: 
Economy

This Paper was originally published on nature.com

 

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    Morocco’s excessive geographic export concentration
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Hamza Saoudi
    November 5, 2019
    In this brief, we review the evidence on Morocco’s export concentration, discuss its causes, and then draw some policy implications. The main message is that Morocco needs to raise its game in some less familiar markets and move outside its comfort zone. This implies not only investments by private firms, greater efforts on export promotion by the government and professional associations, but also deeper changes within Morocco, including in its educational system. Over the past two ...
  • Bringing industry 4.0 to everyone? Hold that thought…
    Authors
    Morten Seja
    November 1, 2019
    The author is an alumnus of the Atlantic Dialogues Emeging Leaders Program 2014. The discussion on industry 4.0 (also often referred to as smart manufacturing or industrial internet of things – which is the term mostly used in the United States of America) has graduated from being a niche topic discussed (and implemented) by engineers in the world’s richest economies. If industry 4.0 has not physically arrived everywhere, it is at least in the minds of some: industry 4.0 in Africa, ...
  • Investors Fear Regime Change
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    October 28, 2019
    Global GDP has slowed sharply, from near 4% in late 2017 to half that rate on an annualized basis in recent quarters. The downturn in fortunes over the last two years has come as a big surprise. The rapid expansion of 2016/2017 was broad based but died young. Prior to it we had suffered seven long years of slow growth in the wake of the global financial crisis Why did such a sharp and steady slowdown occur against a background of loose monetary policy, supportive fiscal policy, low ...
  • The Rationale behind India’s Shift to Africa
    Authors
    Samuel Arnaud
    Ihssane Guennoun
    October 28, 2019
    Africa, as a continent of economic opportunities, is attracting foreign players. In this context, India is emerging as an important partner, especially for Eastern and Southern Africa. The complexity of its geopolitical environment combined with internal specificities motivated the revival of interest for the continent. This paper draws on historical developments between India and African countries to provide the state of play of recent linkages. Those trends are better perceived th ...
  • Portrait ADEL : Eric Ntumba, jeune banquier en RDC, "La jeunesse de la RDC en quête d'alternative"
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    October 25, 2019
    Jeune banquier congolais, Eric Ntumba est venu de Kinshasa en décembre 2017 pour participer au programme Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders du Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) à Marrakech. À l’époque, lorsqu’on lui demandait quel était son rêve, il déclarait d’emblée : « Devenir président de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et apporter un développement inclusif, pour faire que le potentiel énorme de ce pays se transforme enfin en puissance. Mon rêve est que chaque en ...
  • Turning Promises into Reality – The Business Case for Gender Equality in Achieving the SDGs
    Authors
    Paula Tavares
    Otaviano Canuto
    October 25, 2019
    As world leaders gathered this month for high-level talks at the 74th United Nations General Assembly, pressing global issues were at the forefront of discussions, including progress toward the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While taking stock of how far we have come in realizing commitments in key areas, including to end poverty and hunger, expand access to health, education, justice and jobs, promote inclusive and sustained economic growth, and protect o ...
  • ADEL Portrait : Congolese youth in search of an alternative
    Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    October 25, 2019
    Eric Ntumba, a young Congolese banker, came from Kinshasa in December 2017 to participate in the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Programme of the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Marrakech. At that time, when asked what his dream was, he immediately said he would like : « to become President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and bring about inclusive development, so that the country’s enormous potential can be finally transformed into power. My dream is that eac ...
  • Download PDF
    Manufacturing Employment, International Trade, and China
    Authors
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    Uri Dadush
    October 14, 2019
    The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution of manufacturing employment across the world. Manufacturing value added has grown rapidly since 2000, at least matching world GDP growth, even after the global financial crisis, reflecting mainly rising demand for manufactures especially in developing countries. However, manufacturing employment increased at only a slow pace, both before and after the global financial crisis. Manufacturing employment growth provided o ...