Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
Read more
Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy
Authors
Eduardo Amaral Haddad
J. A. León
M. Ordaz
I. F. Araújo
May 30, 2022
Related topics: 
Economy

This Paper was originally published on nature.com

 

The economy of a country is exposed to disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters. Here we present a set of probabilistic risk indicators, the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC), regarding to production, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Regional Product (GRP), export volume, inflation, tariff revenue, among others, due to earthquakes. All indicators are computed using a systematic probabilistic approach, which integrates the seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium models, both robust and well-known frameworks used worldwide in their respective fields. Our approach considers the induced damage and frequency of occurrence of a vast collection of events that collectively describe the entire seismic hazard of a country, giving us a better and more complete understanding of the full consequence of earthquakes. We illustrate this approach with an example developed for Chile.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    Brazil and Africa: Historic Relations and Future Opportunities
    Authors
    Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
    February 8, 2016
    Brazil is in a good position to serve as a bridge to Africa and to reignite more cooperation between both sides of the South Atlantic. Brazil has increased its presence in Africa in recent years in terms of trade, investment, development cooperation, and political alliances with the goal to secure a greater say for the global South in the new world order that has been under construction since the of the Cold War. This has been pursued through financial support and proactive economic ...
  • Download PDF
    Industrial Policy: A Guide for the Perplexed
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    February 1, 2016
    Industrial policy is a controversial, even taboo, subject in policy circles. Yet it is widely practiced by advanced and developing countries alike2 . This note tries to make sense of this paradox. It argues that industrial policy can be a useful weapon in the development policy arsenal. However, the effectiveness of industrial policy is more circumscribed than many of its practitioners think, and there are significant risks associated with getting it wrong, especially in a poor gove ...
  • Understanding Labor Market
    Prakash Loungani
    January 27, 2016
    This podcast is performed by Prakash Loungani. He is Senior Fellow at Policy Center for the New South and Advisor in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, was interv ...
  • Featured Q & A: How Will the Fed’s Rate Hike Affect Latin America?
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    January 12, 2016
    Q: The U.S. Federal Reserve on Dec. 16 raised interest rates, ending what Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen called an “extraordinary seven-year period” during which policymakers kept the federal funds rate near zero in an effort to support the economy. How will the Fed’s action affect Latin American economies, many of which are struggling with anemic growth and low prices for their commodity exports? How will the interest rate hike affect Latin American countries’ ability to pay off their ...
  • Walking the Talk of the Africa Rising Narrative
    Authors
    Nisrine Ouazzani
    January 6, 2016
    The economic growth of the African continent and its positioning as an emerging force is a reality no longer questioned. Optimism surrounding the Africa rising narrative is supported by a growing young workforce, an expanding middle class, new discoveries of natural resources and minerals, relative political stability and infrastructure developments. Economic and international financial actors now recognize the potential that the continent represents for the world economy, consider ...
  • Download PDF
    The Improving Global Outlook and Morocco
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    December 23, 2015
    Global economic growth is likely to be a little better in 2016 than this year’s lackluster outcome. The ongoing slow recovery in the United States and Europe is likely to continue. However, weakness in China as well as several large emerging markets, and sluggishness of world trade, mean that risks are weighted on the downside of this forecast. Morocco, which is reliant on European markets, is a heavy importer of oil, and whose currency has devalued in effective terms, should find t ...