Addressing Extremism and Socioeconomic Challenges

Seven years after the onset of the Great Recession, the global unemployment rate has returned to its pre-crisis level: the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in 2014; essentially the same as in 2007, the year before the recession. Chart 1: Global Unemployment Back to Pre-Crisis Level but Remains High in OECD (Average of unemployment rates for 105 countries, percent) Sources: IMF, and Economist intelligence Unit Calculations.   Note: Based on data for 105 countries that publish reliable lab ...

The year just ending disappointed economic forecasters, as did the year prior, and the one before that. The aftereffects of the Lehman crisis, now over six years old, and of the subsequent sovereign crisis in Europe, have been systematically underestimated and continue to plague us.  Although the outlook for 2015 is foggier than usual, there are significant areas of strength and many signs that the world economy continues to heal, beginning from here in the United States.  The coll ...

Le désengagement progressif des banques occidentales du secteur des matières premières est en marche. Deux raisons principales permettent d’expliquer ce « recentrage » : un accroissement des contraintes réglementaires et une moindre rentabilité. Ce retrait semble profiter aux grands négociants internationaux, mais également aux banques des pays émergents qui ne cachent pas leur appétit légitime dans ce domaine. ...

Western banks are gradually withdrawing from the commodities market. Two main reasons can explain this refocusing: an increase in regulatory constraints and lower profitability. This withdrawal seems to benefit large international traders and banks in emerging countries that demonstrate their legitimate interest in this area. ...

The International Jobs Report offers an analysis of labor market conditions since the end of the 2008-09 global recession. It also provides forecasts of GDP and employment by the IMF and the International Labor Organization (and by a private-sector company, The Economist Intelligence Unit), to spur discussion and debate. Future editions will update and expand on this analysis, opening a window on to a global labor market that is improving, but not nearly fast enough to help the tens ...

La chute des prix pétroliers observée depuis le milieu de l’année 2014 s’explique par la conjonction d’un excès d’offre et par une insuffisance de la demande dans un contexte économique mondial morose. Le niveau des prix ne peut cependant être la seule variable à prendre en compte dans une analyse prospective des effets macroéconomiques de cette baisse : structure par terme et volatilité des prix constituent ici des éléments explicatifs fondamentaux. ...

The fall in oil prices since mid-2014 is due to the combination of excess supply and a lack of demand in a sluggish global economy. However, the price level cannot be the only variable to consider in a prospective analysis of the macroeconomic effects of this drop: futures structure and price volatility are fundamental explanatory elements. ...